TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

OT

William Decker on Twitter
Does it seem that the delivery system is still not smooth?

Could be a fake, but this *is* the sort of logistics which Tesla routinely screws up, so it could be real. Not a big deal; I mean, it wasn't even a big deal financially when Amazon repeatedly failed to meet its *promised and guaranteed* delivery dates last Christmas. We all hope it will get better.

 

[neroden]

Waiting is over it seems.

William Decker on Twitter

...and so I guess it was real.

 

[neroden]

OT

Very significantly, it looks like this is for the 300MW/1,200MWh project won by Dynergy/Vistra and not the previously announced Tesla 182.5MW/730MWh PG&E project. So it looks like Vistra has chosen Tesla to build its battery too, and Tesla will actually have a total of c.2GWh PG&E battery projects.

The Gigafactory is going to need to speed up stationary battery production pretty fast!

When does Tesla hit the raw materials supply limits from their existing suppliers? The speculative mining companies they've signed with still aren't funded.

 

[neroden]

OT

Which basically tells me... never let options just expire without cash to cover them.

To put it very simply, this is correct. Some brokers may be nicer to you, but IB is known for "sharp practice".

 

[KarenRei]

OT


You, Karen. Consider that you're actually wrong. I'm not going through it again, but stuff you wrote in your latest comment was noted incorrect before you wrote it.

Demonstrably not true, to anyone who looks at the reply history and the timestamps.
On the other hand, you are resurrecting this mod-prohibited thread, several days after the fact. Please stop.

 

[Steve m]

OT



Oh, I was just fed up by the recurrent idiocy around here. Social interaction skills are something I *know*, but they're *work*, and after a while I get tired of wasting my time on it when the people I'm interacting with are not worth it because their minds are closed. And boy are some of you, lately, trying to prove that you're not worth the effort.

I guess some of the people who are worth the effort have been very quiet. I appreciate them speaking up. *Zhelko* ">100% TSLA" was getting uncomfortable posting his honest opinion due to the bull echo chamber lately -- think about what that means.

When does an individual cross a line around here?

 

[neroden]

So apparently I was not current on the thread when I posted, hence my redundancy to your post.

To actually add something:
The mega ships once and lives there for decades, so transport seems the wrong variable to optimize. In terms of optimizing shipping, for a large, monolithic like this, it seems the using a shipping container would be a net negative.

• load mega into container somehow
• Secure it
  
• Ship
• Either unload from container while still on the transport (central dock) or unload container from transport to ground, then pull out megapack
• Crane, fork, or telehander megapack into position
• Ship container back (possibly after reloading onto transport)

Verse a flatbed approach:

• Load mega onto flatbed via c,f, or t.
  
• Secure
• Ship
  
• Unload via crane, fork, or tele and place on pad in one step
• Flatbed potentially picks up a load on the return trip

Two words: Puerto Rico.

Containers make it easier to transport through multiple means, including ships to get overseas.

More importantly, you're missing something: The Megapack shouldn't be *in* a container -- it should *be* a container. That is, it should be the external size and shape of a container, with the same shipping abilities. You set the entire container in place, and you're done; it never gets carried back.

If you look at the video Vincent posted of the project office for Gigafactory 3, it's made of shipping containers. That's the model.

 

[Tslynk67]

She also said they are getting close to 1,400 in a day (S/X/3). I'm not sure why Tesla would still be pushing towards 8k per week model 3 production if they have exhausted the $45k+ Model 3 order book earlier than planned (as many seem to be speculating). I think the extension of Tesla's order deadline for 2018 delivery could just as well be explained by higher than expected production achieved in the past 3 weeks.
I still think it likely Tesla will shut down Fremont for the last week of the year, potentially preparing the lines for non premium interior and China/Europe production.

Given that Tesla are quoting February delivery in Europe, I could imagine a lot of these cars are going to be put on boats and sailed across the Atlantic.

 

[neroden]

@neroden
Please consider your own thread. I for one would happily ready it diligently and be thankful I didn't have to scrounge for worthwhile analysis in the mountain of noise. I only agree with you some of the time but I very much appreciate your posts. I say the same for Audie and a handful of others.

I'll consider it. Might be healthier to just leave though.

The forum software does NOT make it easy to hit "reply in different thread". I might suggest that this be added as a feature.

 

[KarenRei]

Given that Tesla are quoting February delivery in Europe, I could imagine a lot of these cars are going to be put on boats and sailed across the Atlantic.

Yeah, with 2+ week transit times just at sea (judging from Eimskip's timetables), they're going to need to start departing ports on the east coast no later than the start of February. Which means Eurospec cars rolling out en masse in late January.

 

[neroden]

OT -- pity there isn't a "reply to different thread" button

Sure, they have the ability to manipulate - but -
- Why would ALL market makers want the same price at the end of the week ?
- While, they can sell short, the risk exposures are limited through internal controls. So, the brokerage / money market side of the house can't take large positions. Infact they try to close positions on a daily basis.

If the market makers have been buying from shorts (though out the week), they may need to see at the end of the week to close positions. This can add to price pressure at the end of the week.

BTW, options can't be sold naked (atleast Wikipedia says so).

Market maker - Wikipedia

The elimination of the market maker exception to naked short-selling is here:
Press Release: SEC Issues New Rules to Protect Investors Against Naked Short Selling Abuses; 2008-204; Sept. 17, 2008

Since then, T+3 has been replaced with T+2.

(T+2 of course means that you can have a naked short for two days. If you're a client with a broker, they'll get you for it. A broker-dealer, however, will probably not be caught.)

 

[Tslynk67]

I do not see where he is following her.

He's not.

 

[neroden]

OT

Before buying my S, the most I had spent on a car was $9k. It was, by far, more expensive than all previous cars I’ve owned combined.

Tesla really does inspire people to open up their wallets.

Before buying my Model S, I'd relied on borrowing cars from family members (because in some ways I'm a cheapskate, and I don't have a commute), so I'd never actually bought a car before.

Which reminds me: This created some problems when Tesla wanted to see my car insurance before finalizing my contract, since it was impossible to get insurance without a VIN. Took a lot of arguing before I got the phone number of a Tesla employee in NY who understood how car insurance and registration works in NY.

Unbelievably, I discovered from the Model 3 forum that people for whom a Tesla is their first purchased car are STILL having this problem with Tesla TODAY. Tesla's paperwork competence is approximately zero and has not improved in 5 years. Their customer service is well-meaning but usually incompetent.

The company and stock will do just great next year. Five years down the road? Not so much. Not unless they start focusing on fixing their horrendous, ridiculously awful weak points.

 

[SebastianR]

OT

OT
Unbelievably, I discovered from the Model 3 forum that people for whom a Tesla is their first purchased car are STILL having this problem with Tesla TODAY. Tesla's paperwork competence is approximately zero and has not improved in 5 years. Their customer service is well-meaning but usually incompetent.

Yea, this is one of these pesky little problems where the silicon valley type "automation & scale will solve everything" approach won't really help with: getting local market intricacies with DMV bureaucracy, car-insurances etc. right is a royal pain you can't just automate away. It does not take one silver bullet, it takes many many lead bullets...

 

[avoigt]

I do not see where he is following her.

Correct, either I mixed something up when I looked a few Days ago or he unfollowed her.

 

[neroden]

OT

(written to someone else)

Are you implying you own 4400 shares

Another poster, not long ago, mentioned something which calculated out to more shares than that, and then admitted to having "far more" than that in TSLA... it sounded like he had at least $10 million in TSLA. There are some very big investors here.

 

[SebastianR]

OT: About information asymmetry - the news that Tesla's market cap exceeds that of Daimler is only just now very slowly making the rounds through some German news media (yes, it was reported on earlier, but I don't think it registered in many heads yet...)

 

[Tslynk67]

...and so I guess it was real.

I don't personally think so - Shorty Air Force is likely lurking around, anyone could take that photo. I did contact the company via their website, but I didn't get a response yet.

I just find the initial tweet itself incredibly suspect - first one after more than two years and the person immediately complains to Elon with a Fox News hash-tag. Totally suspect if you ask me.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, with 2+ week transit times just at sea (judging from Eimskip's timetables), they're going to need to start departing ports on the east coast no later than the start of February. Which means Eurospec cars rolling out en masse in late January.

Was 6 weeks for my Model S from end of production to delivery, which I believe is typical.

 

[neroden]

Just because he's a trucker who works for a firm hired by Tesla doesn't mean he isn't predisposed to be hostile to Tesla. Occam's razor says he was kept waiting for days, as he claims he was. And that he is looking for reasons to be hostile to Tesla too.

(Though as for his claim that Tesla isn't paying his firm -- how would he know? THAT sounds bogus, as it's above his pay grade. He says his firm was willing to pay him for the extra time, and they clearly want their contract with Tesla -- they expect to get paid and make a profit.)