TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anthonyj]

What's the deadline for the two new directors?

 

[ReflexFunds]

I doubt they prepare for non-PUP before Q2. EU/China will happily consume any "excess" for months to come. Possibly they will start building PUP 35K vehicles but that should be not much more of a change in Fremont than adding MR was to the lineup, just a different battery part variation, and maybe a different motor if they determine that adding another motor to the mix will overall reduce costs by building one that is only as capable as needed. The SR complexity will be mostly in GF1 where they will bring up the new SR module / pack assembly line.

But non-PUP will surely wait until after SR is already shipping for some time.

I was thinking Long Range non-PUP RWD could be added to the lineup for Q1. That should be similar margin to the Mid Range PUP RWD.

I presume the new battery module/pack lines from Grohmann should have arrived at the Gigafactory by now, but it doesn't sound like they plan to ramp them up until late Q1. So i expect Short Range PUP RWD to be released in March/April.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Tesla’s consistently producing 1300+ cars per day lately. That’s over 9,000/week. Hope that news gets out!

Source: a Tesla worker

You don't know that's cars, Vicki could be (and is likely) talking output of her own section only. Having said that, it's encouraging, there would be no point in them getting too much ahead of the overall curve of production.

 

[EVNow]

Perhaps in 5 or 10 years your friends will reflect back on their choices and buy a Tesla then?

In terms of the car or the stock ?

The car - my friend instantly regretted his decision to buy the Infiniti after talking to me. I'm sure for his next car he'll consider Tesla seriously.

As to the stock - who knows ? I generally won't advice anyone about individual stocks. TSLA is a high volatility stock - and not everyone has the stomach for it. I usually advice people to follow the simple 3 ETF rule for diversification (US stocks, International stocks and Bonds).

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I was thinking Long Range non-PUP RWD could be added to the lineup for Q1. That should be similar margin to the Mid Range PUP RWD.

I presume the new battery module/pack lines from Grohmann should have arrived at the Gigafactory by now, but it doesn't sound like they plan to ramp them up until late Q1. So i expect Short Range PUP RWD to be released in March/April.

Doesn't make much sense to me. No PUP means more manufacturing variation. They're working on margin, so better move more high-spec stuff globally than complicate to move low-demand product in the USA.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla’s consistently producing 1300+ cars per day lately. That’s over 9,000/week. Hope that news gets out!

Tactically, I hope the news doesn't get out. Its better for the stock to react to solid, positive news than some rumors before the official news comes out, and for the stock to then dip because the news is not as good as the prior rumors. The old - buy on rumor, sell of news thing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

5k/week for a whole quarter was mentioned by Moody's as a major condition before a Moody's upgrade of Tesla.

Let's run with worst-case* numbers from InsideEVs: Oct 17,750 Nov 18,650. That's 36,400 est'd Model 3s delivered in first 2 mths of Q4 (61 days @ ~600/day).

That leaves 28,400 to go in Dec to reach the 'Moody Goal' of 65,000 total in Q4 (5K/wk*13wks). Let's assume production shutdowns of half a day Christmas Eve, full day on Christmas and half a day on New Year's Eve.

That gives 29 production days to build 28.4K Model 3s in Dec.

So Dec production requires an average daily rate of less than 1,000 Model 3s per work day during the month. 65K Model 3s in 2018Q4 sounds very do-able and is in fact conservative.

Moody's, we hardly knew ye!

CHE3RS!

*worst-case: since InsideEVs does not count Model 3 deliveries in Canada. Likely about 3-4K total in Oct-Nov 2018, but likely less than Q3 due to expiring US Tax incentives.

P.S. Let's also assume that deliveries==production (I know, weak assumption, but using deliveries to estimate production should be conservative while production is rising).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was unaware that Liberia and Myanmar had landed on the moon...

OT

Have you been to Liberia or Myanmar? They are the moon.

Cheers!

 

[EVNow]

*worst-case: since InsideEVs does not count Model 3 deliveries in Canada. Likely about 3-4K total in Oct-Nov 2018, but likely less than Q3 due to expiring US Tax incentives.

Was Moody's condition of 5k/wk for Model 3 itself or all models together ?

 

[Bullish_Bear]

Let's run with worst-case* numbers from InsideEVs: Oct 17,750 Nov 18,650. That's 36,400 est'd Model 3s delivered in first 2 mths of Q4 (61 days @ ~600/day).

That leaves 28,400 to go in Dec to reach the 'Moody Goal' of 65,000 total in Q4 (1,000 per week). Assuming half a day off on Christmas Eve, full day off on Christmas and half a day off on New Year's Eve.

That's 29 production days to build 28.4K Model 3s in Dec.

So Dec production requires an average daily rate of less than 1,000 Model 3s per work day during the month. 65K Model 3s in 2018Q4 sounds very do-able and is in fact conservative.

Moody's, we hardly knew ye!

CHE3RS!

*worst-case: since InsideEVs does not count Model 3 deliveries in Canada. Likely about 3-4K total in Oct-Nov 2018, but likely less than Q3 due to expiring US Tax incentives.

P.S. Let's also assume that deliveries==production (I know, weak assumption, but using deliveries to estimate production should be conservative while production is rising).

My estimate is not that good overall. Multiple sources indicate the production is 5-6k/week (maybe lower 5xxx) in Dec so far, and the Canadian delivery in Oct and Nov was almost for sure less than 3k.
One good thing is that there seems to be no day off for holidays, even for Christmas day.
Totally my estimate is 60k, and could be even a little bit lower.

 

[mickificki]

She has told me to get it several times. Only recently has she turned against it.
She is the boss in the family.
I refer to her as "She who must be obeyed"(Rumpole of the Bailey)
I learned a long time ago to agree with everything she says, no matter what.
It's not a 50/50 marriage. Not even a 90/10.

If mama ain’t happy, ain’t noooooobody happy...

 

[lencap]

Production numbers versus sales for this quarter may be very difficult to forecast. Tesla is producing a LOT of cars, stocking them throughout the country to ensure buyers get the full $7500 tax credit. The challenge may be to sell the cars not just build them. I was at the local Tesla store this weekend - I asked about 2018 guaranteed delivery. I gave the salesperson the specs of the car I wanted to buy, and he found several of them within a five hour drive of my home. I'm not taking a bullish or bearish view on the stock, just commenting that the production numbers may be higher than expected, but actual sales may or may not make the target analysts expect.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Was Moody's condition of 5k/wk for Model 3 itself or all models together ?

The originator of this assertion was @Fact Checking but I believe it is 5K Model 3s per weeks, since that was the justification Moody's used to issue their downgrade back in Mar 2018:

"The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that Tesla will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity short-fall. Prospects for addressing its liquidity requirements (whether equity, convertible notes or debt) will be supported if the company can establish credibility for reaching Model 3 production levels -- 2,500 per week by the end of March, and 5,000 per week by the end of June."

"The rating could be raised if production rates of the Model 3 meet Tesla's current expectations and if the company maintains good liquidity"​

So nicely done Tesla, and Moody's where's the BEEF?!

Cheers!

 

[Hock1]

I share that exact sentiment myself as well - but I'd also like to note that @KarenRei has called out most of her trades this year in advance of making them, and has a very good track record, calling several bottoms and tops.

She is definitely not day trading - she is at most "low intensity swing trading" with months between trades, while neither shorting nor using margin. Several times she has elected not to trade, despite being very close to good entry points - which is the right strategy so few are able to master.

(She also won one of the prestigious IOCCC's with a contest entry abusing a glibc macro bug in a clever way.)

I wish her good luck too, especially in the options space which is an added layer of complexity and emotional baggage to deal with.

Sounds like Karerei is exceptional. I guess my advice goes out to everyone else on this board.

 

[Wnuk]

Futures looking green for now, let’s hope they stay that way overnight.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Futures looking green for now, let’s hope they stay that way overnight.

Futures looking green. Future’s looking green.

That’s not a bad tagline, and an apostrophe lesson to boot.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Let's run with worst-case* numbers from InsideEVs: Oct 17,750 Nov 18,650. That's 36,400 est'd Model 3s delivered in first 2 mths of Q4 (61 days @ ~600/day).

That leaves 28,400 to go in Dec to reach the 'Moody Goal' of 65,000 total in Q4 (5K/wk*13wks). Let's assume production shutdowns of half a day Christmas Eve, full day on Christmas and half a day on New Year's Eve.

That gives 29 production days to build 28.4K Model 3s in Dec.

So Dec production requires an average daily rate of less than 1,000 Model 3s per work day during the month. 65K Model 3s in 2018Q4 sounds very do-able and is in fact conservative.

Moody's, we hardly knew ye!

CHE3RS!

*worst-case: since InsideEVs does not count Model 3 deliveries in Canada. Likely about 3-4K total in Oct-Nov 2018, but likely less than Q3 due to expiring US Tax incentives.

P.S. Let's also assume that deliveries==production (I know, weak assumption, but using deliveries to estimate production should be conservative while production is rising).

I would highly, highly recommend not considering InsideEVs to be a "worst case" estimate. This is a bit of a weird quarter -- they could easily be way off based on the methodology they use.

My estimate is not that good overall. Multiple sources indicate the production is 5-6k/week (maybe lower 5xxx) in Dec so far, and the Canadian delivery in Oct and Nov was almost for sure less than 3k.
One good thing is that there seems to be no day off for holidays, even for Christmas day.
Totally my estimate is 60k, and could be even a little bit lower.

What sources indicate that (other than Troy's spreadsheet)?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

how much modification does the lines need for the China/Euro models? Or only software tweak is needed?

EU is a different charge port, but for most of EU (ignoring right hand drive areas) the hardware is otherwise very similar.

China may be interesting... I think they have two different China-specific standards, one for AC and one for DC (and not a CCS equivalent where the DC is an addon to the AC portion). IIRC the AC standard is basically Type 2, but with the receptacle/cable genders swapped. The DC standard is an entirely separate connector. Tesla does already have adapters for China for existing S/X to the new DC fast charging standard, but for new build S/X destined for China they added a 'fuel door' style flap on the body panel near the usual charging location which contains both of the Chinese standards:

It's possible they shoehorn both into the larger flap area of the Model 3, but I'm not confident there is room.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

EU is a different charge port, but for most of EU (ignoring right hand drive areas) the hardware is otherwise very similar.

China may be interesting... I think they have two different China-specific standards, one for AC and one for DC (and not a CCS equivalent where the DC is an addon to the AC portion). IIRC the AC standard is basically Type 2, but with the receptacle/cable genders swapped. The DC standard is an entirely separate connector. Tesla does already have adapters for China for existing S/X to the new DC fast charging standard, but for new build S/X destined for China they added a 'fuel door' style flap on the body panel near the usual charging location which contains both of the Chinese standards:

It's possible they shoehorn both into the larger flap area of the Model 3, but I'm not confident there is room.

For EU, my vague recollection is that there are a number of small requirements such as tail lights, turn signals, emergency lights, etc. $TSLAQ seems to think EU homologation is a potential show-stopper requiring lots of re-engineering, etc. (even though Tesla's quite familiar w/ whatever the requirements are). I'd love to see a parts list diff for S/X if anyone has ...

Charging aside, some people on twitter seem to think U.S. cars are good to go in China, with no special changes needed. No idea if this is true.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would highly, highly recommend not considering InsideEVs to be a "worst case" estimate. This is a bit of a weird quarter -- they could easily be way off based on the methodology they use.

Using InsideEV's numbers estimates Oct/Nov production at 600 Model 3s/day. That's a lowball estimate of 4,200 per week.