TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Let’s hope this time is different?

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The problem with that "analysis" is twofold:

1. Fundamentals with Tesla are substantially different now than anytime prior to Q3 '18.
2. The stock market is in a vastly different place from where it was in 2017/H1 2018.

So, while they could be right, I can guarantee you it's not for any of the same reasons as the previous drops.

 

[EVNow]

I was trying to transfer all last week, and kept running into problems with my bank (some sort of system problem with SWIFT transfers), and their tech support has taken forever to fix things.

SWIFT is supposed to take 2 days per leg/hop. But if all the parties and their swift codes are not correct, it can take for ever. Atleast its not by telex

 

[EVNow]

So, while they could be right, I can guarantee you it's not for any of the same reasons as the previous drops.

So what is the reason for the drop today - 2.5% lower than Nasadq ?

BTW, this kind of drop is the reason shorts are not worried when TSLA goes up !

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I'm too afraid of missing a sudden upside to try to capitalize on a downswing like that. That's human nature though I suppose. We generally are more afraid of losing out on something

Other option is to set aside some money to buy when the price dips a lot(say, after delivery numbers are announced) and have that pool be your dedicated swing money.

 

[KarenRei]

SWIFT is supposed to take 2 days per leg/hop. But if all the parties and their swift codes are not correct, it can take for ever. Atleast its not by telex

And that's the time after it actually gets initiated. The time you're on hold with tech support or trying to get an email response because every time you try to do the transfer all you get as a response is "Upp kom villa..." ("An error has occurred...")... that time doesn't count

You know, I've never felt bad for any time that my investment decisions have ultimately proven to be too aggressive or too conservative (usually the latter). I always look at them as, "you made the right decision based on the information you had at the time." What makes me sick when I think back are the lost opportunities due to delays or other problems that were out of my control :Þ

 

[Cherry Wine]

So what is the reason for the drop today - 2.5% lower than Nasadq ?

BTW, this kind of drop is the reason shorts are not worried when TSLA goes up !

I have no idea why; TSLA is a volatile stock that under- or outperforms indices regularly. Perhaps the selling was amplified by short sellers. The stock's movement, while amplified, tracked with the index movement throughout the day.

 

[KarenRei]

Perhaps the selling was amplified by short sellers.

I hope so. I never tire of taking their money.

 

[Alphacrux]

What will it take for the fundamentals of the stock to outpace the macros?

 

[Causalien]

And that's the time after it actually gets initiated. The time you're on hold with tech support or trying to get an email response because every time you try to do the transfer all you get as a response is "Upp kom villa..." ("An error has occurred...")... that time doesn't count

You know, I've never felt bad for any time that my investment decisions have ultimately proven to be too aggressive or too conservative (usually the latter). I always look at them as, "you made the right decision based on the information you had at the time." What makes me sick when I think back are the lost opportunities due to delays or other problems that were out of my control :Þ

Enable margins?

 

[Causalien]

Everyone is talking like a bear market is imminent. My experience is that’s not when most bear markets occur....they occur when everyone is giddy. P/E ratios aren’t ridiculous, banks aren’t making crazy loans to people who can’t pay them back, and anyone who invested in bitcoin deserves whatever the heck happens to that, but it ain’t gonna crash the market.

In times like this, people get skittish and increase their cash position. But over time they can’t stand being ‘invested’ in the one vehicle that’s guaranteed to lose value every year....the dollar. So they slowly get back in.

My hope is that the Orange One can strike a deal with the Chinese, removing the uncertainty that looms over the market presently.

My experience with these political things is that, if they set a date like march. It'll get dragged to end of march to get resolved. So we are looking at 3 more months of doom and gloom. Enough to cause a recedsion.

 

[Cherry Wine]

What will it take for the fundamentals of the stock to outpace the macros?

There's a discussion of this very topic going on here. Personally, I think if Tesla can consistently show quarterly profits it should be able to trade within this range -- $250-$350, if not higher -- even in a bear market. I am far from an authority on the subject, which is why I'm asking other more seasoned investors to chime in with their thoughts.

 

[lklundin]

if you can't instantly realize what $20mm means

Dollar-cost of a 20 mm round?

 

[ZenMan]

I'm thinking that maybe my best bet might be to temporarily sell puts (assuming IB lets me, backed by the value of my calls?) to be able to take advantage of the market being down - then buy them when my SWIFT transfer comes in. What do you think?

I've never sold puts before, so I've never had to cover them, so I'm not sure what the process will be like.

IB wont let you sell Puts based on Call equity. Only Stock Equity.

 

[KarenRei]

Enable margins?

Margins scare me. What if the stock plunges tomorrow and they liquidate my account at bargain-basement prices? I considered enabling margins, but "calls bought on margin" just seems too great of a risk, even if it's only for a day or two.

Really, none of these potential options seem to have a low enough risk profile. I'm not much of a gambler.

 

[Curt Renz]

But....as far as "mm" goes: if you can't instantly realize what $20mm means, then -

Dollar-cost of a 20 mm round?

I assumed it meant a Tesla car costs about $20 per millimeter of length, even though it would have been better written $20/mm.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That really does look like swamp land. Not loving the water table...

Not swamp land, manufactured land. As in man-made, recovered from the sea-land.

Cheers!

 

[Causalien]

Margins scare me. What if the stock plunges tomorrow and they liquidate my account at bargain-basement prices? I considered enabling margins, but "calls bought on margin" just seems too great of a risk, even if it's only for a day or two.

Really, none of these potential options seem to have a low enough risk profile. I'm not much of a gambler.

Not for gambling. A reason to use margin is to enable instantaneous deployment of cash.

You buy on margin on the day you made the decision and initiate transfer of the cash from your bank account at the same time. So you are only borrowing for 3~4 days. This is why you don't seeany of us lament on how slow and troublesome swift is.

 

[SpaceCash]

Will prob buy short term calls tomorrow. The market is really bad overall, I wonder if people are positioning for a new war?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Why Tesla Stock Fell on Monday -- The Motley Fool

Why Tesla Stock Fell on Monday
Shares fell as much as 6%.

Daniel Sparks
(TMFDanielSparks)
Dec 17, 2018 at 5:08PM
What happened

Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) were rocked Monday. The stock fell as much as 6% and finished the trading day down 4.7%.

The stock's decline was likely primarily due to a broader-market sell-off that hit high-growth tech stocks particularly hard.

IMAGE SOURCE: TESLA.

So what
The S&P 500 fell about 2.1% on Monday as fears mounted about the Federal Reserve's meeting later this week. With the Fed expected to raise short-term interest rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday, some investors fear higher rates could present headwinds for some companies and ultimately lead more investors to incrementally move money away from stocks and into treasuries.

Tesla stock's decline on Monday isn't surprising, as its shares had surged recently. The stock, therefore, may be taking a breather as investors take gains as broader-market concerns mount. Even when including today's pullback for Tesla stock, its shares are up 13% since Oct. 1. During this same time frame, the S&P 500 fell about 13%.


Now what
Company-specific factors may become the main drivers for Tesla stock in the coming weeks. Within the first few days of January, Tesla is set to report vehicle deliveries for its fourth quarter. Management was optimistic about the period, guiding for slightly more Model 3 deliveries during the period than in the third quarter -- a notable target considering the company hasn't proven yet that it can sustain its higher levels of Model 3 production. Management's guidance implies an 88% year-over-year increase in Model 3 deliveries or greater.

Worse-than-expected Model 3 deliveries for Tesla's fourth quarter could lead to a sell-off in the company's shares, as investors have already priced in optimistic growth expectations.



Daniel Sparks owns shares of Tesla. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

[AlexS]

just got here, was this discussed already
Tesla class action judge is reconsidering lead plaintiff in fraud case | Reuters