TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

I'm personally not buying shares right now, I need cash

 

[ReflexFunds]

No disagreement with any of your estimates. However, don't you think that pulling the lease demand lever this early would be seen as a sign of weakness? Most investors here probably wouldn't be worried by Tesla offering leases on the model 3 but i cant say the same for analysts like Jonas and his short seller friends.

Also, I wonder if that debt they issued back by leases recently has anything to do with their intent to start offering them on the model 3.

(Could be wrong, just thinking out loud)

Yes i'm sure a negative spin would be put on it. I also think the ABS may have been preparation for this. Most S/X leases are offered through lease partners, so Tesla doesn't have to fund them itself, but initially i think more model 3 leases could be in-house - until there is a track record of residual value.

I don't think it should be any surprise or concern that they have nearly exhausted the near term order book for $46k+ cash sales models in the US. Long term 1-2k US weekly sales of these currently available options should map to c.10k weekly worldwide sales across all models (base up) including lease option.

 

[Starno]

I'm preparing for the next recession, so when it happens, I'm going to load up shares like a maniac.

 

[KarenRei]

Well, they got me Starting the (long) process to transfer some personal cash to my trading account. Just can't let this chance go by. Also really pushing my bank on stock transfers, so I can sell part of the stock they're holding to buy options without tons of delays.

It's a buyers market.

 

[cricketman]

I have been buying too, now at 1,035 shares, I will buy 15 more if we hit $315 but then that's it. I am way over-invested already

I've noticed that Model S and X deliveries are at full pace in Norway and they are now only 200 cars away from the number of cars delivered in 2017. I find it incredible how Model S and X sales are holding up in Norway with Model 3 just around the corner. If this is indicative of other markets then there is no bad news for Tesla. As long as they increase production, there will always be buyers

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's a buyers market.

That's what I'm thinking as well. I started buying more yesterday at $337 per share and though that was a pretty good deal. It's frustrating to watch it drop... but at the same time, nothing has changed except that a bunch of fish just followed the nasty few blindly.

Not doing options here so that if my timing is wrong (again), I only have to ride it out because it always bounces back harder and higher every time. (Eyes rolling... again).

 

[JRP3]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but are there stats for this? I know the news pretty much ignores non-Tesla EV fires, but given the relative dominance of Tesla, even if there were more absolute numbers it could well be lower per-vehicle.

The Leaf should have enough cars on the road to be statistically significant, like Tesla. I only know of one fire with a Leaf (cause unknown). Maybe the Leaf specifically is less fire-prone than average.

LEAF has the numbers, only one fire that I'm aware of, no determination as to the cause that I can find, and I've looked, a lot. The Bolt should have around 40K cars on the road by now, never heard of a fire. It shouldn't be a surprise, Tesla does use a more energy dense, and volatile cell chemistry.

 

[gene]

I have been buying too, now at 1,035 shares, I will buy 15 more if we hit $315 but then that's it. I am way over-invested already

Buying TSLA is addicting. I remember when I had 1,000 shares and I thought it was too many. I now have much more and I sometimes feel I don't have enough! Just imagine 10 years from now. I guess the important thing to think about is if one was to lose all that money, would it effect your life as it is or can you just carry on in the life you have already? I hate to see anyone risk home or happiness but if it is between living the lifestyle you now have ,regardless of how the stock goes, and if things work out stepping things up, I say go for it!

 

[kyzhk]

Have we bottomed yet? Everything is on sale right now.

S&P and DJIA are at 52 weeks low, which are 15% off all time high couple months ago.

I hope this bottom holds for a little while, I'm gonna max out my 401k for next year in the first paycheck and get in the market at bottom

I think this is also about a good time to get in leaps call position...

btw, had TMC always been unreliable? I couldn't count how many times the forum blanked out in the past month.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Just bought a Jan2021 $300 LEAP. I still think we could go lower next week (typical holiday week BS), but with a LEAP there's not much point in trying to thread the needle.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Have we bottomed yet? Everything is on sale right now.

S&P and DJIA are at 52 weeks low, which are 15% off all time high couple months ago.

I hope this bottom holds for a little while, I'm gonna max out my 401k for next year in the first paycheck and get in the market at bottom

I think this is also about a good time to get in leaps call position...

btw, had TMC always been unreliable? I couldn't count how many times the forum blanked out in the past month.

I've noticed the forum has a tendency to go down during big downturns in the stock. Someone's commented on it in the past.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tomorrow is Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of stock index futures and options and individual stock options. Open interest and today’s volume in TSLA December 21st $320 puts is huge. Interest in the related calls is quite modest. I’d expect market makers and hedge funds to defend $320 to shut out put owners. In fact the situation is similar at the $330 strike price. The deep pocket writers of those puts may want to push the share price above that level too.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

LEAF has the numbers, only one fire that I'm aware of, no determination as to the cause that I can find, and I've looked, a lot. The Bolt should have around 40K cars on the road by now, never heard of a fire. It shouldn't be a surprise, Tesla does use a more energy dense, and volatile cell chemistry.

There are just a few thousand I-Paces on the road and one here already burned to a crisp (while charging at night).

On topic: have 222 shares (avg. $308) and will hold them tight to my chest. Ofcourse it is tempting to think I could have sold them at $375 and bought more back at a lower price. But I might as well have missed a breakout to $450. So not going down that path.

 

[JRP3]

There are just a few thousand I-Paces on the road and one here already burned to a crisp (while charging at night).

The battery does not appear to have been involved so it doesn't count.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I seem to have a fairly ridiculous number of shares (> 1000) and have no intention of selling them for a while. I also have about 600 bought as CFDs which incur overnight costs (bah), but I expect to be able to unload them all at a profit by mid January. When December ends, we get December delivery figures and Q4 results, the stock will go mad. Passing of 1Q of profits as a fluke is possible. 2 looks like desperation.

 

[wipster]

True but at some point there may be a real statistical difference between Tesla and other EV's. Hopefully they've done something different with the Model 3 since we haven't heard of any incidents but the S and X do have a higher rate than other EV's to date.

Rate or number? I can buy that the number of S/X fires is greater, but based on the sales, the rate has to be lower, probably by a large amount.

 

[EVNow]

Not sure this was posted earlier ..

Tesla in Ohio? Morgan Stanley thinks it's possible

To date, there are no overt efforts or official comments around Tesla Inc.(TSLA) utilizing one of the soon-to-be idled General Motors Co.(GM) plants, but that hasn't stopped analysts at Morgan Stanley to sketch a case for it in a note Thursday. Tesla snapped its plant in Fremont, Calif., at a steep discount from a venture between GM and Toyota, they reminded investors. For Tesla to do similarly with the GM plant in Ohio, the Silicon Valley car maker would require it to be "a free or nearly free" deal, a labor contract that does not involve the union and collective bargaining agreement, and an extension of federal tax credits on electric vehicles or other incentives to encourage EV adoption, the Morgan Stanley analysts said. A deal would also come with "a substantial PR benefit from any successful deal that saves jobs," the analysts said.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not sure this was posted earlier ..

The scenario they outline would be quite a positive catalyst, in my opinion.

 

[humbaba]

LEAF has the numbers, only one fire that I'm aware of, no determination as to the cause that I can find, and I've looked, a lot. The Bolt should have around 40K cars on the road by now, never heard of a fire. It shouldn't be a surprise, Tesla does use a more energy dense, and volatile cell chemistry.

So... because you've never heard of it means it never happened? Gotcha.

But I prefer to operate with actual statistics.

 

[JRP3]

Rate or number? I can buy that the number of S/X fires is greater, but based on the sales, the rate has to be lower, probably by a large amount.

Nissan LEAF has sold more than 300K units.