TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Drax7]

Early January production and deliveries should set the stage for the next tesla rally,
Just my view.
The markets are too frazzled about Fed policy, hence company specific performance
Is overwhelmed by risk off.

 

[anthonyj]

Early January production and deliveries should set the stage for the next tesla rally,
Just my view.
The markets are too frazzled about Fed policy, hence company specific performance
Is overwhelmed by risk off.

Tesla usually drops after production numbers are announced.

 

[Zaxxon]

Can’t believe I dug myself out of the $420 funding secured hole, and now I have to dig myself out of this...
View attachment 362439

Step 1: Wait.
Step 2: There is no step 2.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla usually drops after [Adam Jonas says some *sugar* about] production numbers are announced.

^^ FTFY.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The local news has been running a repeating story on the “the ever growing list of Tesla fires”.

So how many ice car fires are there every day? Seems to me it was in the 100’s.

 

[neroden]

Time for Tesla to reissue a comparison of the gasoline car fire/death rate with the Tesla fire/death rate. They may have to publish this every year.

 

[Krugerrand]

I know a guy...Hopper is his name...poor guy is missing a toe on his right front paw...but I digress. I know this other guy, who got to spend some time in a NIO (ES8) and talk to the owner.

Long story short - is not in any shape or form a Tesla competitor. Not even close. A few highlights of the conversation:

Big battery issues in terms of range, particularly under certain situations, battery supply and charging.

Interior is a mish-mash of buttons and no buttons - like they tried to take the best of buttontopia OEMs and the best of we-don’t-need-no-stinkin’-buttons-dials-or-knobs Tesla and were unsuccessful at melding them into a cohesive or intuitive conglomeration.

There was a cute little happy face technology thingy on the dash that talked, but it wasn’t enough to change the overall perception of not ready to take Tesla on in this decade and perhaps the next.

So, I am now considering getting out of my NIO position. Or I might let it ride, it’s tiny and I went in expecting to lose every penny.

 

[humbaba]

Time for Tesla to reissue a comparison of the gasoline car fire/death rate with the Tesla fire/death rate. They may have to publish this every year.

To keep up with the news cycle, repeat every week it looks like

 

[JRP3]

Time for Tesla to reissue a comparison of the gasoline car fire/death rate with the Tesla fire/death rate. They may have to publish this every year.

True but at some point there may be a real statistical difference between Tesla and other EV's. Hopefully they've done something different with the Model 3 since we haven't heard of any incidents but the S and X do have a higher rate than other EV's to date.

 

[copyhacker]

The local news has been running a repeating story on the “the ever growing list of Tesla fires”.

Any list of things that have happened is “ever growing”. Lol.

 

[humbaba]

I know a guy...Hopper is his name...poor guy is missing a toe on his right front paw...but I digress. I know this other guy, who got to spend some time in a NIO (ES8) and talk to the owner.

Long story short - is not in any shape or form a Tesla competitor. Not even close. A few highlights of the conversation:

Big battery issues in terms of range, particularly under certain situations, battery supply and charging.

Interior is a mish-mash of buttons and no buttons - like they tried to take the best of buttontopia OEMs and the best of we-don’t-need-no-stinkin’-buttons-dials-or-knobs Tesla and were unsuccessful at melding them into a cohesive or intuitive conglomeration.

There was a cute little happy face technology thingy on the dash that talked, but it wasn’t enough to change the overall perception of not ready to take Tesla on in this decade and perhaps the next.

So, I am now considering getting out of my NIO position. Or I might let it ride, it’s tiny and I went in expecting to lose every penny.

But but but NIO was going to have these roaming vans to do OTF battery swaps to give effectively unlimited range!

What I wish is that the Energizer bunny would give $TSLA a visit and keep the stock going up, up, up

True but at some point there may be a real statistical difference between Tesla and other EV's. Hopefully they've done something different with the Model 3 since we haven't heard of any incidents but the S and X do have a higher rate than other EV's to date.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but are there stats for this? I know the news pretty much ignores non-Tesla EV fires, but given the relative dominance of Tesla, even if there were more absolute numbers it could well be lower per-vehicle.

 

[tivoboy]

I know a guy...Hopper is his name...poor guy is missing a toe on his right front paw...but I digress. I know this other guy, who got to spend some time in a NIO (ES8) and talk to the owner.

Long story short - is not in any shape or form a Tesla competitor. Not even close. A few highlights of the conversation:

Big battery issues in terms of range, particularly under certain situations, battery supply and charging.

Interior is a mish-mash of buttons and no buttons - like they tried to take the best of buttontopia OEMs and the best of we-don’t-need-no-stinkin’-buttons-dials-or-knobs Tesla and were unsuccessful at melding them into a cohesive or intuitive conglomeration.

There was a cute little happy face technology thingy on the dash that talked, but it wasn’t enough to change the overall perception of not ready to take Tesla on in this decade and perhaps the next.

So, I am now considering getting out of my NIO position. Or I might let it ride, it’s tiny and I went in expecting to lose every penny.

Sounds pretty typical for any new Chinese entrant into the global vehicle space. You should have seen the cars they were making in the 90's. I kid you not, there was actual CARDBOARD in the dash (and I don't mean INSIDE for some buffer between the firewall and metal (it was probably tin) for soundproofing. I was also pretty sure there were significant toxins floating around in the factory. My eyes felt like they have been burned with ammonia within about five minutes inside.

Of COURSE these cars are going to be much better, and will GET better but coming out of the gates it's going to OKAY, not GOOD and not GREAT.

And god help them trying to sell them into a western market, USA/CAN/Europe/AUS but that's probably not their market opptty, it's purely internal (MLC) and India/Indonesia

 

[neroden]

OT

True but at some point there may be a real statistical difference between Tesla and other EV's. Hopefully they've done something different with the Model 3 since we haven't heard of any incidents but the S and X do have a higher rate than other EV's to date.

Are any other EVs statistically significant? Most of them have been produced in meaninglessly small numbers. I guess the Chinese ones would be significant, but nobody's collecting stats on them. Thousands could have burned and I wouldn't know.

There were several i3 fires, and there are almost zero i3s.

The Leaf should have enough cars on the road to be statistically significant, like Tesla. I only know of one fire with a Leaf (cause unknown). Maybe the Leaf specifically is less fire-prone than average.

 

[Dig deeper]

OT

Even with this crazy market it might be about time for me to load the truck on lithium stocks, even though I was already pretty heavily invested there

Do you care to share and potential considerations? Are you looking at miners ($ALB, $SQM), they are getting absolutely crushed recently.

Or maybe going the etf route with something like $LIT. Expense ratio is high but might be good for broad exposure and the added leverage that miners offer relative to the underlying commodity (if the relationship behaves similarly to gold and its miners).

Dalio, Greenblatt, and Tudor all seem to be trimming their positions.

 

[EVNow]

Bought again at $319.70

You guys on the east coast have an advantage. I slept through the morning high and low. Now we are going to muddle through rest of the day - or atleast till last hour, when anyway its highly risky to do short term trades.

 

[bhtooefr]

Someone had mentioned Europeans favor smaller engines, but I think that is mostly due to taxes based on engine displacement, not because they undervalue acceleration. I think the Model 3 will do very well in Europe, and not just the slower versions.

AFAIK those taxes are gone now, but taxation based on NEDC CO2 emissions has historically been a huge deal, and NEDC strongly favors undersized engines. Additionally, insurance rates are a huge deal AFAIK and acceleration is negatively valued by insurers there - I suspect that could be a problem for Tesla on the low end.

Come on ARK Invest and others, if your strategy makes any sense you should be buying now.

Not necessarily, it depends on how much is invested in their funds. If people are dumping their funds, then they have to sell (and if TSLA is at their maximum holdings, rebalancing will still manifest as selling TSLA, whereas if TSLA isn't, rebalancing may well manifest as selling everything that isn't TSLA).

 

[Dig deeper]

I estimate on 18th Dec Tesla had delivered a minimum 45.4k model 3s, with a further 4.2k in transit & 8.5k in inventory. I think there is 4.6k remaining order backlog (I don’t have high confidence in this backlog estimate, it could be a bit less), so Q4 model 3 deliveries should be at least 54k without any last minute inventory sales. If another 6k model 3s are produced in the final days of the year (Troy’s estimate), inventory would finish at 9,000 model 3s (this would nearly all be finished goods rather than in-transit, so wouldn’t show in the delivery report). They should be able to sell at least 1-2k more inventory cars in the year end sales push so: Bear case Q4 delivery estimate is c.55k.

This is using Troy’s extremely helpful data and Electrek’s report that Tesla were at 81% of Q4 US delivery target as of 18th Dec. Big assumption is that the 81% is accurate for 3 as well as S/X. It uses a worst case internal Tesla model 3 delivery target of 56k (guidance was > Q3).

If Tesla’s target was in fact 60k, then i estimate 48.5k deliveries as of 18th Dec with 4.5k in transit & 5k inventory. Q4 deliveries would be 58k without additional inventory sales. If another 6k model 3s are produced in the final days of the year, inventory would finish at 6,000 model 3s. Again, at least another 1-2k more inventory cars should be sold in the year end sales push so: Mid case Q4 delivery estimate is c.59-60k.

If Tesla want to push to clear all inventory, they can launch a model 3 lease offer in the coming days. So Bull case Q4 delivery estimate is c.$64k. If they increase production from the current slowed 3.5k per week rate for the remainder of the year, this could be higher.

No disagreement with any of your estimates. However, don't you think that pulling the lease demand lever this early would be seen as a sign of weakness? Most investors here probably wouldn't be worried by Tesla offering leases on the model 3 but i cant say the same for analysts like Jonas and his short seller friends.

Also, I wonder if that debt they issued back by leases recently has anything to do with their intent to start offering them on the model 3.

(Could be wrong, just thinking out loud)

 

[ReflexFunds]

OT


Do you care to share and potential considerations? Are you looking at miners ($ALB, $SQM), they are getting absolutely crushed recently.

Or maybe going the etf route with something like $LIT. Expense ratio is high but might be good for broad exposure and the added leverage that miners offer relative to the underlying commodity (if the relationship behaves similarly to gold and its miners).

Dalio, Greenblatt, and Tudor all seem to be trimming their positions.

I think Lithium stocks are good value here. The depressed stock prices this year mean not nearly enough new projects have been funded to provide supply for the EV transition. Most of the industry is planning towards ridiculously conservative EV penetration rates.

At some point the speed of EV transition will become more obvious and there will be a mad rush to fund new projects. Most experimental new battery technologies use at least as much lithium.

I prefer junior vertically integrated projects that have already received funding, and have experienced partners like SQM and Gangfeng, as lithium production is very difficult to get right.

Favourites are Nemaska, Lithium Americas and Kidman Resources, but individually they are all still very high risk and years from cash flow.

 

[lklundin]

Bought again at $319.70

For the second time this week I bought a few shares, this time for just under 280 € (about 318 $).

 

[agloutney]

Well I’m all out of dry powder but found 319.79 to buy a single symbolic share this morning. All in for the long term. Now it can start climbing