humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Maybe the incorrectly towed Tesla that caught fire? I wouldn't expect a consumer FUD attack of that nature to affect stocks, but as you said the lithium stocks are getting hit it could correlate.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
If you have the funds to hold until the Q4 report in late Jan/early Feb, don't worry about it. This is KABUKI Theatre, off-Broadway Edition.
Cheers!
EDIT: Let's see if we can find support at the lower BB, currently at:
321.12 (9:51 am EST)
322.46 (10:01 am EST)
322.46 (10:01 am EST)
Looks like we found some support at the lower BB, with an assist from rebounding NASDAQ-100 macros.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Even with this crazy market it might be about time for me to load the truck on lithium stocks, even though I was already pretty heavily invested there 
This doesn't sound difficult. The company's goal was never published; all they said was "more than Q3". Q3 was 55840, so "more" is 55841. 19% of that is 10610, which means they need to deliver 816 Model 3s per day starting today. Sounds completely possible.
Particularly since according to Troy's data, they were producing 6000+ Model 3s per week (857 per day) a couple of weeks ago.
What did you guys do while I was gone? 320? Bruh.
Come on ARK Invest and others, if your strategy makes any sense you should be buying now.
I estimate on 18th Dec Tesla had delivered a minimum 45.4k model 3s, with a further 4.2k in transit & 8.5k in inventory. I think there is 4.6k remaining order backlog (I don’t have high confidence in this backlog estimate, it could be a bit less), so Q4 model 3 deliveries should be at least 54k without any last minute inventory sales. If another 6k model 3s are produced in the final days of the year (Troy’s estimate), inventory would finish at 9,000 model 3s (this would nearly all be finished goods rather than in-transit, so wouldn’t show in the delivery report). They should be able to sell at least 1-2k more inventory cars in the year end sales push so: Bear case Q4 delivery estimate is c.55k.
This is using Troy’s extremely helpful data and Electrek’s report that Tesla were at 81% of Q4 US delivery target as of 18th Dec. Big assumption is that the 81% is accurate for 3 as well as S/X. It uses a worst case internal Tesla model 3 delivery target of 56k (guidance was > Q3).
If Tesla’s target was in fact 60k, then i estimate 48.5k deliveries as of 18th Dec with 4.5k in transit & 5k inventory. Q4 deliveries would be 58k without additional inventory sales. If another 6k model 3s are produced in the final days of the year, inventory would finish at 6,000 model 3s. Again, at least another 1-2k more inventory cars should be sold in the year end sales push so: Mid case Q4 delivery estimate is c.59-60k.
If Tesla want to push to clear all inventory, they can launch a model 3 lease offer in the coming days. So Bull case Q4 delivery estimate is c.$64k. If they increase production from the current slowed 3.5k per week rate for the remainder of the year, this could be higher.
This is using Troy’s extremely helpful data and Electrek’s report that Tesla were at 81% of Q4 US delivery target as of 18th Dec. Big assumption is that the 81% is accurate for 3 as well as S/X. It uses a worst case internal Tesla model 3 delivery target of 56k (guidance was > Q3).
If Tesla’s target was in fact 60k, then i estimate 48.5k deliveries as of 18th Dec with 4.5k in transit & 5k inventory. Q4 deliveries would be 58k without additional inventory sales. If another 6k model 3s are produced in the final days of the year, inventory would finish at 6,000 model 3s. Again, at least another 1-2k more inventory cars should be sold in the year end sales push so: Mid case Q4 delivery estimate is c.59-60k.
If Tesla want to push to clear all inventory, they can launch a model 3 lease offer in the coming days. So Bull case Q4 delivery estimate is c.$64k. If they increase production from the current slowed 3.5k per week rate for the remainder of the year, this could be higher.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
OT
Not correct. "independent" means non-management. Can still own tons of stock.It can't be Ellison, he owns ~$2B in TSLA. Settlement calls for two "Independant" Directors, so can't be a significant owner.
OT
That's a misreading. Shareholder of an organization that has a relationship with the company. As in, can't own stock in a supplier.
That's a misreading. Shareholder of an organization that has a relationship with the company. As in, can't own stock in a supplier.
Looked at your hairline recently?
Certainly not the first, but it is pretty unusual.
I was sort of expecting a holiday bear raid. The general macroeconomic terror in the markets made for a good environment for it.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Rarely happens for me, and the day isn't over yet, but I'll take it for now
So, this is a pretty crazy nonsense dip, with all the news from the company being positive. (Yes, they're still not fixing their communications problems, but that's not *news*.) Also all the news from the competitors has been positive for Tesla. I think we know enough to discount a fire which was probably caused by improper towing.
This feels bear-raid-like, though it could be any number of things. Reminds me of the Feb 2016 dip, though I suspect it will be less severe than that.
I'm sort of pre-positioned due to my put sales. If it really crashes well under $300 and stays there for a while, I get all-in on TSLA. And at those prices, I think that's the right thing to do.
We'll see. The deliveries report might act as a source of price support.
This feels bear-raid-like, though it could be any number of things. Reminds me of the Feb 2016 dip, though I suspect it will be less severe than that.
I'm sort of pre-positioned due to my put sales. If it really crashes well under $300 and stays there for a while, I get all-in on TSLA. And at those prices, I think that's the right thing to do.
We'll see. The deliveries report might act as a source of price support.
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