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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The OSHA stuff is a pretty trivial issue.

The real news which is not getting much coverage is Barclays' estimate of a $3.9 billion cash burn in 2018. If they are close to correct, Tesla has a big problem.
Big IF (I recommend reading all 5 parts of his twitter replies regarding Barclays)
Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter

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Yes, it's a big deal, could be thousands of $ on the line here. /s

View attachment 295101

Also from Caroline O'Donovan on Twitter

"Just got off the phone with a Cal/OSHA spokesperson who told me a new health+safety inspection at Tesla's Fremont factory was opened yesterday. The agency can't say what triggered the inspection, except that it wasn't an industrial accident"​

Bankwupt
 
The real news which is not getting much coverage is Barclays' estimate of a $3.9 billion cash burn in 2018. If they are close to correct, Tesla has a big problem.

That’s true. If they were to continue massive spending on the Model 3 production line w/out ever achieving their planned revenue from it, they’d have a big problem. That’s not only true, it’s a truism.

Happily, most of the spending has already happened, and revenue is just beginning to ramp up. 38% of all Model 3s ever built were built in the last 3 weeks.
 
Add Dana Hull to the list of people who are Tesla sensationalists that deserve to be forgotten.

Ever notice how the media and short-sellers are more obsessed with Tesla than Tesla fans are?

Who are the real cultists?
Oh yeah. If you want to see someone absolutely obsessed with TSLA 24/7, check out Mark Spiegel's twitter account. He's completely obsessed with TSLA but in an absolutely negative way. It's literally insane.
 
I would feel a lot better if the stock was at $295-298 today. But I honestly can’t complain if we close above $290 since the factory is retooling and there won’t be any new information for a couple more days. I think what will essentially take us above $300 are more VINs being issued, if this occurs in badges like it did 2 weeks ago then I can see smarter shorts start to closeout their positions. Another take I have is that the $310 mark will emphatically be broken once we know Tesla can reach 2,800-3,000 (I’m predicting this to occur before the end of May). For the time being, I don’t need shorts to close their positions in large quantities. A slow methodical rise to $300 will be enough to psychologically make them think twice. Any news right now can of course tip us one way or the other, I’m betting we’ll get positive news very soon. I think the market is cautiously optimistic at this point. There seems to be a very nice floor between 288-290s right now, I think that floor was cemented by Elon’s revelation of 3 consistent weeks above 2,000.
We are still trading in a downtrend channel at this point, with lower highs and lows. Until we break out of it, it will continue. $290 appears to be near the middle of this pretty narrow range right now.
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Tactically, remember the fundamentals!

The captain of the Tesla ship is on the bridge weathering the storm. For the moment, I assume Elon is still sleeping in the assembly area focused on bringing this assembly line up to speed.

There is no better form of leadership. His focus is the difference between a manager and a leader. Even if Elon does not say a word to anyone, the fact that he is there psychologically energizes all the people around him. They know the mission and they are giving it their all.

I have stated in the beginning, of my writings here, I do not believe in numbers. If I did, I’d be dead or sleeping under a bridge in a warmer climate. I have always flown under the radar, and right up the middle and always; okay, most of the time; okay, okay at least enough that I am driving over the bridge in our Model X:)

If you were listening awhile back, I think it was Mercedes, that said they were not going all-out automation. Lesson learned? We will see.

I am right here, vitamins in hand, flowing positive thoughts that Elon is way more capable than Superman:) At my age, that is about all I can muster, and I am in better shape than the average, not to mention still alive. Okay, some wish I wasn’t; maybe they will get over it.

I started this before the "gofundme" came out for a new couch for Elon, and Elon's email about "I am in Charge." Very significant points here ~ fundamentals.

I saw a history channel about the historic battle between Electricity and Fossil Fuels a couple of years back, and according to this historians perspective Electricity lost twice. Elon/Tesla does no have a cavalry, in the traditional scene, no, Elon/Tesla are out there on their own. Fossil Fuels are not out there pumping out fifty gallon drums of fuel to load up your Model T. Thank god, Elon called it a Model S. No, Elon/Tesla are building their own refueling network of SuperChargers one pit-stop at a time across the nation, hell the world over. Can you imagine where we would be if another corporation was funding the infrastructure of the SuperChargers? If that ugly short mantra comes to pass (bankwupt); politically Obama or his replacement will not step in to save the day. Not one of the old and gray manufactures (did you miss my dry humor dig?) are leading the charge with newer and brighter ideas. Instead they are supporting the fossil fuel industry sinking dollar after dollar into those black gold holes, not refueling electricity. Back in my college days, graduated in 1975, I was told of the up and coming shortages (metals, oil, etc.) facing us. My wedding ring, probably twice to three times as wide as your gold band, cost me $200 bucks in 1973. Gold jumped to $600 an ounce right after that, what timing. When my father died on 1 January 2013 (what a tax nightmare), an ounce of gold was plus/minus $1,600. Tesla was somewhere around $30 a share.

I am standing by the one, Tesla, I believe will be worth handing off to my daughter, son-in-law and GrandPups. My son-in-law joked the other day that he just has to wait out four more years and Xena is his:) Why not, we gave them a their first Prius when they got married, gave them our second one, plus our pickup truck when we bought the X. He figures it is a five year cycle. Funny, both our daughter and son-in-law are afraid to drive Xena:) Our granddaughter four years ago, when she was four, asked her parents "when are you buying an electric car?" That is the future my friend, and I am there for them. May have to get them a Model 3 for them, my wife is not letting go of the "X" anytime soon:)

I looked over the competitions "i" models, you know from the article/tweet above, and then I looked at the numbers our buds provide at insideEV and, well "good luck with that "i" thing:)

Tactically, remember the fundamentals! Keep your FUDar on too:) You may have heard "you go into battle with what you have," well, that my friend can be said about every thing in life ~ everything.

EDIT: This is a fragile dance we are watching, watch the toes ~ please. For me it is not just about the money; I cannot afford a pyramid. Tried to avoid Cat Stevens, "Cats in a Cradle," maybe I'll succeed with the GrandPups.

Last weekend of April, opening day for Trout! Here in Washington, the real Washington:) I catch them or the Eagles and Osprey do, and they do not pay for a fishing license!
 
That’s true. If they were to continue massive spending on the Model 3 production line w/out ever achieving their planned revenue from it, they’d have a big problem. That’s not only true, it’s a truism.

Happily, most of the spending has already happened, and revenue is just beginning to ramp up. 38% of all Model 3s ever built were built in the last 3 weeks.
And that is why I’m not holding through earnings, the new revenue won’t be showing up untill 3 months from now. Maybe 6 ;)
 
Since Elon's tweet late April 17th reaffirming up latest ramp schedule (my take is min. 5,000 M3/week sustained), we have 53 trading days to end of June.
SP of $288 to ATH $386 linear approach to end of June is an increase of $1.85/trading day. Today SP was up $5.66. So far so good.
I'll report at the end of April to see if SP remains on track.
 
We are still trading in a downtrend channel at this point, with lower highs and lows. Until we break out of it, it will continue. $290 appears to be near the middle of this pretty narrow range right now.
View attachment 295141

It’s going to take us some time to get out of this trend. I’m hoping Tesla continues to climb incrementally $1-2 per day this week, narrowing the range even more. That way we set ourselves up for next week when word from the factory that the ramp is back on.
 
Comment above that a network is taking cash to push shorts?
Possible of course, but if word got out of that, an email, an overheard call,
there would be hell to pay. High risk. So my guess would be no.

Plus, they don't need to.
Just push a story, get blip in the price. Make money.

This is a danger, this is where they may be getting sketchy.
They will not admit it, of course.
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Stock shows continued strength considering the news.
Stable, the market is comfortable at this price, in these conditions.

I still see it staying relatively flat. Until when?
Current status means the Q1 numbers are not critical.
The change of direction/new commitment will have
everyone properly looking to end of the next Q for production numbers.
There are not large numbers of people changing positions

So it looks like Wait and See time.
There will still be movement, this is TSLA after all.
Make money on the moves.
But I don't see big jumps and drops.
Until we see the effect of the production changes.
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Just got my email invitation, I ordered about 30 seconds after the online orders became available and I'm located just south of LA.

Unfortunately, I'm likely going to cancel my reservation, unless I can find someone to take it over for me. When I first reserved it, I didn't care if my bank account hit $0.00. These last few years, I've begun caring a bit more. In all likelihood, maybe 5-10 years from now, after I buy a house, I'll look into buying an S or X instead.
 
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Just got my email invitation, I ordered about 30 seconds after the online orders became available and I'm located just south of LA.

Unfortunately, I'm likely going to cancel my reservation, unless I can find someone to take it over for me. When I first reserved it, I didn't care if my bank account hit $0.00. These last few years, I've begun caring a bit more. In all likelihood, maybe 5-10 years from now, after I buy a house, I'll look into buying an S or X instead.
You can defer the reservation. Also it has been reported that Tesla may allow you to keep the reservation while getting the deposit back. Let us know how you get on. Good luck.
 
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