Which totally made sense, if you wanted an electric car. What was the other option? A Leaf? I suppose this is one of the things that may change over the next few years since there will be other options, even if they come on limited quantities at first. From 2012 on Tesla had a really nice window of opportunity they could use to grow and expand. They were alone. It seems they made some mistakes along the way, especially when it comes to manufacturing. To me it looks like this window is closing faster than most people assumed over the next years. If they manage to grow as fast as they do now (profitably) for the next 3-5 years, fully ramp up the Model Y and Semi, they simply made it and Shorts have been wrong.
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Which totally made sense, if you wanted an electric car. What was the other option? A Leaf? I suppose this is one of the things that may change over the next few years since there will be other options, even if they come on limited quantities at first. From 2012 on Tesla had a really nice window of opportunity they could use to grow and expand. They were alone. It seems they made some mistakes along the way, especially when it comes to manufacturing. To me it looks like this window is closing faster than most people assumed over the next years. If they manage to grow as fast as they do now (profitably) for the next 3-5 years, fully ramp up the Model Y and Semi, they simply made it and Shorts have been wrong.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
This is the crux of the biscuit. I think the window is getting much bigger, much faster, than many ICE makers are prepared for. Getting bigger, because the number of people wanting to drive electric will only increase, and the number of people wanting to go back to ICE after driving electric will be vanishingly small. It's going to happen at increasing rates precisely because there will be more available options. The losers will be those who won't have anything compelling to sell to that rapidly changing market.
Yes.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
More slowly than I assumed actually. Years ago I thought the competition would jump onboard the obvious shift to EV's yet they've continued to drag their feet.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
and also this:
Hyundai Ioniq Electric is hard to find due to ‘battery shortage’ limiting production
It seems that even if the window is open, Tesla's opponents are tripping over their own feet trying to climb through it
Certainly. My core thesis is that everyone who wants a car wants an electric car. (Or will once they try a Tesla.) The world will not be supplied with enough until 2025 or more likely 2030, so that is when pricing and demand become issues. I guess we only disagree on what year this happens; but I am clearly right. ;-)
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vinvin218
Member
I went from a 2nd-hand Renault Espace (in 2010) - €14k, to a Volvo XC-90 (2011) - €53k, which I thought was outrageously expensive.
Next step was a MS P85 (2014 delivery) - €111,540, to be precise, and now I'm driving a MXP100D (2017), inventory car which cost me €154k - that's with a very generous showroom discount, price as new was around €190k
OK, I'm not doing too badly for myself, but I'm certainly not rich by any stretch of the imagination. But you know what, despite the high cost, the Teslas never felt over-priced. Next planned car is a Roadster 2.
If I'm doing this, others are doing it too and further down the price-brackets as well.
It's actually funny that assuming it takes about 10 years longer makes me a bear. But imho that's enough time for others to catch up. Yes, they are slow and they need 5-6 years to build a new car from ground. But it's not like they started in 2018 or so. I can also see EVs and infrastructure developing in the right direction, just slower. If you assume 90% BEV sales by 2025, you also have to say that either most countries will have outfitted almost every city and almost every apartment with charging capabilities, or you assume charging speeds will be 3 or 5 times higher than today. That is one example of a thing i don't see happening that fast. I imagine similar things are true regarding supply with some of the resources required for current batteries.
Thanks for the pic. What is that port that looks to be open on front fascia?
BYD is no longer the forerunner in Chinese EV market. It even runs the risk of losing government subsidy due to low energy density. I really think Buffet made a mistake investing in BYD.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Must be the bears we converted in the last hour.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I was under the impression that the chinese subsidies are range bound and not related to energy density? Anyway, they indeed have fallen behind a bit during the last year. But i like the new line-up and the fact they finally decided to go for higher density NMC-Cells with their cars while maintaining LFP for busses and storage.
Some green volume... Totally against the run-of-play. Either the shorts fell asleep or there's some news out there we're not aware of?
davecolene0606
Member
Wow, Reuters on the ball with pertinent info again, $35 million is hardly worth blinking an eye where hedge funds and shooters are concerned, but.... if it's the eeeeevviill Soros (yea sarcasm) supports boogeyman then print it
Fire Away
Is it possible there were no fire trucks on the road today?
Model 3 was designed to be affordable to 50% of the new vehicle market (Musk said as much in a talk in Europe about 3 years ago when he already had a very good idea of pricing). Given that the car will save a consumer $700 to $1500 per year on fueling depending on gas/diesel prices where they live, he is correct. Average price of a new car in the US is $35K. That $700-1500 annual savings in fueling will pay for optioning up the $35K starting price quite nicely. If the Tesla Network is successful, and those buying Tesla's have the option of earning passive income from their car, the reach of these cars is well beyond 50% of the new vehicle market.
You might wonder... what about the cost of replacing the battery?
I recommend reading this data based article to anyone who doesn't realize that lifetime maintenance/repair/replacement of parts is almost certainly an advantage for well done EVs like Tesla's when compared with ICE vehicles.
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
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