TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

No kidding. I thought about selling some of my shorter term calls when we were up 4+% but didn't. My guess is when the SP started really heading up, nervous shorts covered. The stock hit resistance around $291, then the negative Consumer Reports article hit. Shorts hopped back aboard and down we've gone. The market also popped at open and has dropped from there. I do hope Tesla responds with a reasonable statement about further testing for the brake issue and promptly addressing any problem there.

Electrek just put out a response to the CR review, worth a read. Includes Tesla's response to the brakes results.

 

[Tslynk67]

Electrek just put out a response to the CR review, worth a read. Includes Tesla's response to the brakes results.

Can't comment on the M3, but given that the brakes on my MS were and MX are superb, I would be surprised if they were much different. also various loaners I've had over the years, all had good brakes, especially the newer models.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I’ve seen rumours on twitter of Tesla short positions getting called today. Is there any way to validate this ?

 

[Skryll]

Can't comment on the M3, but given that the brakes on my MS were and MX are superb, I would be surprised if they were much different. also various loaners I've had over the years, all had good brakes, especially the newer models.

I can comment on my Model 3, 5300 miles since january and zero brake issues, every bit as effective as I expect them to be.

 

[brian45011]

That was my whole point that brian didn't grasp.

I'm guessing Brian rolled over and went back to sleep too many mornings, rather than attending those 8 AM Micro-Economics classes as an under-grad to ever grasp how price affects supply-demand curves.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Brake fade on a car with brakes that are only used in emergencies requires at least two emergencies in a very short period of time. Non issue.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The biggest thing some people miss is that reservations are very much a dynamic number. They don't stand still. It isn't as if Tesla will run through 400K reservations and then wonder where all the customers have gone. If you promise 6 months delivery, then that will get a lot more people to reserve. If the waiting time is 3 months, another huge number of people will reserve. If you can drive one off a lot when you show up at a store, then another huge number of people will buy. Unless demand is truly unlimited, the wait time will necessarily go down as manufacturing rates go up. Eventually, Tesla will throttle Model 3 manufacturing rates to match demand when stores have inventory to sell, just like they now do with 100K/yr Model S/X. Elon was right, worries about conversion rates truly are boneheaded.

Yes, shorter wait time will help with demand. I thought about when I get my M3 I would show it around to friends, but then it kinda sucks that they can't buy one any time soon. Now with the shortened wait time, it would be way easier to get other people to be interested in getting one.

 

[bdy0627]

I’ve seen rumours on twitter of Tesla short positions getting called today. Is there any way to validate this ?

Wouldn't seem very likely with today's pretty modest climb.

 

[kingjamez]

Wouldn't seem very likely with today's pretty modest climb.

That depends on how leveraged the individual is and when the placed the short.

-Jim

 

[mongo]

Brake fade on a car with brakes that are only used in emergencies requires at least two emergencies in a very short period of time. Non issue.

That was my initial though too. However, the article stated they retested after an overnight cool down.

In our testing of the Model 3, the first stop we recorded was significantly shorter (around 130 feet, similar to Tesla’s findings), but that distance was not repeated, even after we let the brakes cool overnight.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

It's not impossible to have a hard braking event effectively ruin braking performance due "glazing" the pads. But that shouldn't be a problem on an unmodified vehicle, stopping from a legal speed (or even an extra-legal speed, really). If it is, then either Tesla done goofed the pad specifications or there's some problem with quality control from Brembo on the pads that lets some of them glaze easier.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla Model 3 on front page of CNN.

Geez.

 

[mongo]

It's not impossible to have a hard braking event effectively ruin braking performance due "glazing" the pads. But that shouldn't be a problem on an unmodified vehicle, stopping from a legal speed (or even an extra-legal speed, really). If it is, then either Tesla done goofed the pad specifications or there's some problem with quality control from Brembo on the pads that lets some of them glaze easier.

Or the one mile cool down is insufficient.

Between each test, the vehicle is driven approximately a mile to cool the brakes and make sure they don’t overheat.

The car shown has aero covers, what is the pad/ brake cool down time with those?

 

[wipster]

Tesla Model 3 on front page of CNN.

Geez.

Double Geez...

 

[NicoV]

Tesla Model 3 on front page of CNN.

Geez.

View attachment 302750

It’s not there anymore, at least not for me.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Can't comment on the M3, but given that the brakes on my MS were and MX are superb, I would be surprised if they were much different. also various loaners I've had over the years, all had good brakes, especially the newer models.

I wonder if the Switched Reluctance PM requires different tuning in its regen use, different from MS/X. If the pads can achieve ~130 ft in several different tests, but just not as consistent/epeatable as we want it to be yet, then I have confidence that it's not a limitation of the breaks or regen, and that Tesla can improve the consistency once they have more data, probably can be fixed with SW.

 

[Skryll]

Tesla Model 3 on front page of CNN.

Geez.

View attachment 302750

Same here, shorters dream placement.

 

[wipster]

The car shown has aero covers, what is the pad/ brake cool down time with those?

You may be on to something there Mongo, would be interesting to do some A/B testing with a 3 without the aero covers.

 

[mongo]

You may be on to something there Mongo, would be interesting to do some A/B testing with a 3 without the aero covers.

Yar, need long cool down time or an IR/ thermocouple to test temperature. If they cook in one braking event that's a big issue, if they cool after a series of closely spaced events, that is something different. Once cooked/ glazed, they will stay that way, even overnight.

 

[wipster]

Yar, need long cool down time or an IR/ thermocouple to test temperature. If they cook in one braking event that's a big issue, if they cool after a series of closely spaced events, that is something different. Once cooked/ glazed, they will stay that way, even overnight.

It's wild to see how hot the rotors and pads get under constant use... look at the rotors during a pitstop at a NASCAR race, those puppies are glowing bright orange! Could change tires and make breakfast without losing any time!