TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

I find this very curious by Consumer Reports.

Tesla reports 133 ft stopping distance with base tires, 126 with upgrades. Motor Trend was able to achieve 119 ft. Now Consumer Reports says it took them 152 ft to stop. One of these things is not like the others...

CR must have been testing it off a cliff
(air-breaking is difficult when you have such a low CD)

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

CR must have been testing it off a cliff
(air-breaking is difficult when you have such a low CD)

Maybe 152 ft is regen-only? Ice roads? Downhill in a hurricane?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I guess this isn't helping the SP right now - perfect timing, strange...

Tesla Model 3 Falls Short of a CR Recommendation

It's a mostly valid article. The stopping distance does appear to be a problem given that Car and Driver found the same thing. Tesla needs to address this directly. The controls issue (everything through the touchscreen) is also a valid concern. Tesla has actually made the problem worse from when the Model S was first available in 2012. When they did their most recent UI refresh, they actually added an extra screen press to the UI, resulting in even more distracted driving. IMHO, Tesla UI designers were stupid with their decision to go with a more modern looking UI rather than going for maximum functionality.

The only quibble I would have with CR is that they somehow discounted using the maximum regen mode saying that the limited regen mode was more like gas powered cars and thus they would base their range calculations on that. That is asinine. And to be fair to Tesla, it does call into question the entire article if that is an example of their thinking.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Maybe 152 ft is regen-only? Ice roads? Downhill in a hurricane?

They never did mention under what regen profile the braking was done under. Given that regen affecting braking, that is a serious omission.

 

[Lessmog]

I think this tweet is important. It validates the shorts' long-held belief that Tesla cannot build the cheaper version at a profit, although I acknowledge that Musk indicates that he's hoping to change this. When you combine it with the various news in the conversion rate over the last couple of weeks, there is considerable additional support for the theorem that "if they price it high enough to make a profit, it won't sell, and if they price it low enough to sell, it won't make a profit."

As I understand it, the "won't make a profit" is only valid during the production ramp, once this is achieved the lower-price car become profitable.

And of course, Tesla are just continuing the strategy they've always followed - higher-priced cars to subsidise the cheaper one to come.

Oh if only Elon had made public his sooper sikrit master plan part deux, instead of whispering it to our exclusive little closed circuit club! Simply loooopy hype.

 

[Yggdrasill]

They never did mention under what regen profile the braking was done under. Given that regen affecting braking, that is a serious omission.

It could make sense that the ABS is tuned for standard regen, so that you might get some oddities with regards to braking distance if regen is on low. In any case, it seems like a flaw Tesla should address.

 

[MartinAustin]

As I understand it, the "won't make a profit" is only valid during the production ramp, once this is achieved the lower-price car become profitable.

And of course, Tesla are just continuing the strategy they've always followed - higher-priced cars to subsidise the cheaper one to come.

THIS!!! Why is this tweet about the $35,000 version a surprise? It's exactly what Tesla did with the Roadster, Model S, and Model X.

Any short who thinks they have found a kink in Tesla's business plan is just not doing that much research... and deserves to lose their cash.

Any short who knows this history and is still acting like it's unusual, or a problem, is just doing the best they can (i.e. lying) in a tough situation.

Even after the ramp(s) are finished, the base-model cars become more profitable to make via continued research and refinement.

 

[Todd Burch]

I added two more shorts to my ignore list today, and I don't ignore anyone purely for being a short.

-I ignored one for being purposely obtuse.
-I ignored the other for being a moron.

My life's motto: I will not engage with morons.

 

[juanmedina]

CR said it hit Tesla's spec of 133 ft on the first try in two different vehicles. Subsequent tests on both vehicles showed significantly worse results. The 152 was the average.

Brakes need to work well more than once. The guy who burned his Model 3 brakes out in 1 lap at Laguna Seca may have stumbled onto something.

-Jim

Not true. Brakes when out after the 4th lap read his thread.

Second you never take a car on stock brakes they are not designed for the track and they will prematurely fail. Third is a super easy fix.

 

[DragonWatch]

A very good article here ~ I believe already posted. Tesla CEO Elon Musk ties base Model 3 availability to company profitability

I believe some are missing the point ~ Is Elon pushing out the $7,500 tax incentive with the higher priced M3s, Ss and Xs? If you are a buyer, this is a dollar savings to you. Is he trying to move it out until the end of 2018, as opposed to September 2018?

Just asking the question.

 

[slipnslider]

A very good article here ~ I believe already posted. Tesla CEO Elon Musk ties base Model 3 availability to company profitability

I believe some are missing the point ~ Is Elon pushing out the $7,500 tax incentive with the higher priced M3s, Ss and Xs? If you are a buyer, this is a dollar savings to you. Is he trying to move it out until the end of 2018, as opposed to September 2018?

Just asking the question.

Yes to all the above. He is definitely using the expiring tax credit to strong arm people into spending more than they planned. And he's trying to get make that full tax credit not expire til 2018 ends.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Yes to all the above. He is definitely using the expiring tax credit to strong arm people into spending more than they planned. And he's trying to get make that full tax credit not expire til 2018 ends.

I've configured and didn't feel strong armed at all. I have a perfectly good car that I could continue to drive for years. I could almost certainly get a $35k car with a $3750 tax credit as well. That's not what I want, I want longer range, better amenities, blue paint, and autopilot. If I wanted to pay less for it I would wait for a used one or another manufacturer to put one out for cheaper. (In which case I would look like the avatar picture of "Waiting for Tesla to go Bankwupt- Any day now!")

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, a bit of a frustrating day the price action, up like a BFR, then a long slow death to close (unless something dramatic happens in the next hour...)

Any insights on that, or is it just the constant drip-drip of negativity bringing it down? I certainly think fresh shorting from here would be a very foolish strategy.

 

[22522]

Yes to all the above. He is definitely using the expiring tax credit to strong arm people into spending more than they planned. And he's trying to get make that full tax credit not expire til 2018 ends.

It just feels that way.

 

[Starno]

TSLA seem to love those kind of days : pop up at the beginning and then slowly deflating throughout the day

 

[wipster]

Well, a bit of a frustrating day the price action, up like a BFR, then a long slow death to close (unless something dramatic happens in the next hour...)

Any insights on that, or is it just the constant drip-drip of negativity bringing it down? I certainly think fresh shorting from here would be a very foolish strategy.

Well, the CR test results didn't help, especially the braking results. Oh well, just another muddy Monday.

 

[Mich]

Well, a bit of a frustrating day the price action, up like a BFR, then a long slow death to close (unless something dramatic happens in the next hour...)

Any insights on that, or is it just the constant drip-drip of negativity bringing it down? I certainly think fresh shorting from here would be a very foolish strategy.

I was also thinking about the reason for this pattern. Maybe a timezone thing? China buying late evening but not all night? Hm.

 

[jhm]

It's a mostly valid article. The stopping distance does appear to be a problem given that Car and Driver found the same thing. Tesla needs to address this directly. The controls issue (everything through the touchscreen) is also a valid concern. Tesla has actually made the problem worse from when the Model S was first available in 2012. When they did their most recent UI refresh, they actually added an extra screen press to the UI, resulting in even more distracted driving. IMHO, Tesla UI designers were stupid with their decision to go with a more modern looking UI rather than going for maximum functionality.

The only quibble I would have with CR is that they somehow discounted using the maximum regen mode saying that the limited regen mode was more like gas powered cars and thus they would base their range calculations on that. That is asinine. And to be fair to Tesla, it does call into question the entire article if that is an example of their thinking.

I've been wondering if the low regen setting would impact stopping distance.

 

[bdy0627]

Well, a bit of a frustrating day the price action, up like a BFR, then a long slow death to close (unless something dramatic happens in the next hour...)

Any insights on that, or is it just the constant drip-drip of negativity bringing it down? I certainly think fresh shorting from here would be a very foolish strategy.

No kidding. I thought about selling some of my shorter term calls when we were up 4+% but didn't. My guess is when the SP started really heading up, nervous shorts covered. The stock hit resistance around $291, then the negative Consumer Reports article hit. Shorts hopped back aboard and down we've gone. The market also popped at open and has dropped from there. I do hope Tesla responds with a reasonable statement about further testing for the brake issue and promptly addressing any problem there.

 

[bdy0627]

I've been wondering if the low regen setting would impact stopping distance.

I saw a discussion on that as well. My guess is that regen would not have that much effect on emergency braking at 60 mph. It certainly shouldn't anyway.