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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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That is probably a symptoms of media trying to spin a little snippets from Tesla into a longer article so they can get more clicks, no offense to Fred.

I'm going to go with Tesla/ Elon hedging the data.
Tesla says: we hit 32 UPH at one point and we can do 500 a day That is the conservative easily achievable target.
Fred and I say: 32 means they could do >5k in a day week. That is the happy optimistic thing Tesla can't say or else they will be chided for not hitting it.

EDIT: Thanks @wipster
 
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Is your opinion that dilution, for the lack of a better word, is good?


lols, no, not necessarily.

not sure if you were just joking or were wondering why I thought issuing shares was preferable to paying cash. when Tesla created the convertible they also spent money on a hedging instrument that will considerably reduce the amount of dilution that will occur if the convertible holders ended up taking shares instead of cash. if my memory is correct, something like an 80% reduction in the diluting impact if the share price doesn't rise above ~$5xx at the time the bonds are due. I would imagine the hedge is useless if the price of the stock is below $360 and the bond holders want cash rather than shares, but, I may be mistaken.
 
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@mongo & @SteveG3 you guys make my day ~ thanks:)

During my youth, folks would say, "don't knock it till you tried it." They usually were referring to marijuana:D Well, I tried it. . . I bought stock beginning in 2013 in Tesla, and I liked it ~ have been building my Tesla impire ever since. The side effects have been mixed, but unlike marijuana I like all things electric ~ especially Tesla. Marijuana for me is a bust, it was back in 1972, and for me does not work medically today. That is not a scientific study, it is just me:p I could be one of those saviors that is all anti-marijuana, but I figure if it works for you and you choose to spend your money that way, then godspeed. We even tried the stuff on our Irish setter recently to help calm him down; he was beaten as a puppy before we rescued him nine years ago, but even he does not calm down with marijuana:( When we first got him, Finn took months to get to where he would look me in the eye ~ he hated men. Bottom line I like/love Tesla; I've tried it and there is no turning back ~ period.

Sorry, got off track there a bit:eek: I had to stand on my head to con my wife into trading-in two cars for our Xena. And, it has taken envin longer helping her out of the tree and investing in stocks. Thank goodness she has always looked me in the eyes:rolleyes:

Steve you brought up a very important point at least a week ago, but I did not want to hijack your points about battery life. We have owned Xena just over a year and she still charges routinely up to the same charge daily. The only variance is one charger is the NEMA 14-50 at our Oly house and Tesla charger at the lake house. The NEMA 14-50 charges shy a mile or two, by comparison. If I had money to burn or could do it over again, I would install the Tesla charger in both locations. FYI ~ once done driving for the day Xena is plugged in for the duration until taken out for a spin:oops: Bottom line unlike the survey I took when we were on the "Leaf waiting list," the battery has not degraded 25% in the first year.

Mongo, Tuesday evening following dinner with the grandpups (called date night ~ Mom & Dad go one direction, we and the kids go another); were heading home when. . . I did NOT have autopilot on, I say again, I did NOT have autopilot on when instead of my wife yelling at me, Xena gave me the "what hell are you doing" treatment. All kinds of bells and whistles went off, I hit the brakes, we stopped and my eight year old granddaughter said, "I know where my mother got the bad language." My wife slammed on her imaginary brake peddle from her copilot position and had she really had a brake peddle to slam down; well she would have broken it clean off:eek: Bottom line here is that even though I was not using autoanything (all manual) ~ Xena alerted me to "DANGER ~ Will Robinson.":confused:

All take in the shorts; last evening I stopped at Starbucks for coffee and some egg bites for this morning. There was a young man, anyone is young to me these days, sitting outside (lucky he did not have the cops called on him) with headphones on. He smiled and said, "I love your car." I replied, "me too.":rolleyes: I have to be careful how I use the word love when speaking about Xena. Not sure who loves her more ~ me or my wife:confused: Bottom line even common people like, okay love, the car!:cool:

Edit: Oh look, 007 is in town ~ stock price just went green at $0.07

Sounds like you guys really love Xena. fwiw, if you get one referral, Tesla will send you that extra wall charger for your Oly house for free.

Referral Program
 
@mongo & @SteveG3 you guys make my day ~ thanks:)

During my youth, folks would say, "don't knock it till you tried it." They usually were referring to marijuana:D Well, I tried it. . . I bought stock beginning in 2013 in Tesla, and I liked it ~ have been building my Tesla impire ever since. The side effects have been mixed, but unlike marijuana I like all things electric ~ especially Tesla. Marijuana for me is a bust, it was back in 1972, and for me does not work medically today. That is not a scientific study, it is just me:p I could be one of those saviors that is all anti-marijuana, but I figure if it works for you and you choose to spend your money that way, then godspeed. We even tried the stuff on our Irish setter recently to help calm him down; he was beaten as a puppy before we rescued him nine years ago, but even he does not calm down with marijuana:( When we first got him, Finn took months to get to where he would look me in the eye ~ he hated men. Bottom line I like/love Tesla; I've tried it and there is no turning back ~ period.

Sorry, got off track there a bit:eek: I had to stand on my head to con my wife into trading-in two cars for our Xena. And, it has taken envin longer helping her out of the tree and investing in stocks. Thank goodness she has always looked me in the eyes:rolleyes:

Steve you brought up a very important point at least a week ago, but I did not want to hijack your points about battery life. We have owned Xena just over a year and she still charges routinely up to the same charge daily. The only variance is one charger is the NEMA 14-50 at our Oly house and Tesla charger at the lake house. The NEMA 14-50 charges shy a mile or two, by comparison. If I had money to burn or could do it over again, I would install the Tesla charger in both locations. FYI ~ once done driving for the day Xena is plugged in for the duration until taken out for a spin:oops: Bottom line unlike the survey I took when we were on the "Leaf waiting list," the battery has not degraded 25% in the first year.

Mongo, Tuesday evening following dinner with the grandpups (called date night ~ Mom & Dad go one direction, we and the kids go another); were heading home when. . . I did NOT have autopilot on, I say again, I did NOT have autopilot on when instead of my wife yelling at me, Xena gave me the "what hell are you doing" treatment. All kinds of bells and whistles went off, I hit the brakes, we stopped and my eight year old granddaughter said, "I know where my mother got the bad language." My wife slammed on her imaginary brake peddle from her copilot position and had she really had a brake peddle to slam down; well she would have broken it clean off:eek: Bottom line here is that even though I was not using autoanything (all manual) ~ Xena alerted me to "DANGER ~ Will Robinson.":confused:

All take in the shorts; last evening I stopped at Starbucks for coffee and some egg bites for this morning. There was a young man, anyone is young to me these days, sitting outside (lucky he did not have the cops called on him) with headphones on. He smiled and said, "I love your car." I replied, "me too.":rolleyes: I have to be careful how I use the word love when speaking about Xena. Not sure who loves her more ~ me or my wife:confused: Bottom line even common people like, okay love, the car!:cool:

Edit: Oh look, 007 is in town ~ stock price just went green at $0.07
I like your style of writing. I sounds like me talking in my head.

But I would never "name" a car..but that is just me :)
 
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I'm going to go with Tesla/ Elon hedging the data.
Tesla says: we hit 32 UPH at one point and we can do 500 a day That is the conservative easily achievable target.
Fred and I say: 32 means they could do >5k in a day. That is the happy optimistic thing Tesla can't say or else they will be chided for not hitting it.

Mongo, I think you mean >500 in a day or >5K in a week... otherwise that's a LOT of M3's!
 
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Sounds like you guys really love Xena. fwiw, if you get one referral, Tesla will send you that extra wall charger for your Oly house for free.

Referral Program

When we bought Xena we tracked down the owner of one of the original Model Ss and asked for their referral, saved us $1K:D We got the Supercharging grandfathered in:cool: Unfortunately we are no longer allowed to post our referral:( code here anymore.
 
You can put your referral code in your profile, so if someone wants to use it they just have to look there. Go to the member's profile page, and look under "information" tab. By way of example (I'm not attempting to solicit referrals, I don't care about them):
Untitled.jpeg
 
not sure if you were just joking or were wondering why I thought issuing shares was preferable to paying cash.

Not sure either, probably a bit of both

when Tesla created the convertible they also spent money on a hedging instrument that will considerably reduce the amount of dilution that will occur if the convertible holders ended up taking shares instead of cash. if my memory is correct, something like an 80% reduction in the diluting impact if the share price doesn't rise above ~$5xx at the time the bonds are due. I would imagine the hedge is useless if the price of the stock is below $360 and the bond holders want cash rather than shares, but, I may be mistaken.

The net cost of the hedge/warrants for the 2019 convertibles was about $85.7 million:

In connection with the offering of these notes in March 2014, we entered into convertible note hedge transactions whereby we have the option to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) a total of 5.6 million shares of our common stock at a price of $359.87 per share. The total cost of the convertible note hedge transactions was $524.7 million. In addition, we sold warrants whereby the holders of the warrants have the option to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) 2.2 million shares of our common stock at a price of $512.66 per share for the 2019 Notes and 3.3 million shares of our common stock at a price of $560.64 per share for 2021 Notes. We received $338.4 million in total cash proceeds from the sales of these warrants. Similarly, in connection with the issuance of the additional notes in April 2014, we entered into convertible note hedge transactions and paid a total of $78.7 million. In addition, we sold warrants to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) 0.3 million shares of our common stock at a price of $512.66 per share for the 2019 Notes and 0.5 million shares of our common stock at a price of $560.64 per share for the 2021 Notes. We received $50.8 million in total cash proceeds from the sales of these warrants.

That $86 million expense will be wasted if the share price is less than $359.87 on March 1,2019. At the conversion ratio, the 2019 notes are equivalent to 2,556,500 shares. Any share price above $359.87 on March 1,2019 means the expense starts to be recouped, but the break-even point for positive returns on the hedge/warrants expense is a share price above about $393.50. The financial risk reverts to Tesla above a share price above $512.66.

If the share price is expected to be above $400/share in 2019, why would Tesla want to issue shares for a recovery of $359.87/share to redeem the 2019 notes rather than using $920 million in cash, and replenishing the treasury with the proceeds of a follow-on offering of additional equity at much higher share price after the audited 2018 annual report (10K) is filed?
 
I like your style of writing. I sounds like me talking in my head.

But I would never "name" a car..but that is just me :)

First, of over twenty plus new cars that we have ever owned, Xena is the first. It is Tesla's fault for allowing us to name her in the software. Some day I'll learn to take responsibility for my own actions.

I appreciate your comment on my writing style. While not one hundred percent effective, sometimes it keeps me from looking like the crazy uncle that no one wants around. When I fall off the rails, it is like running to catch a moving train with a sprained ankle to correct my error of my way. My wife has long since given up challenging me on talking to myself ~ sometimes the answer is too challenging even for me:confused: Probably a good thing, but I failed to get a part-time basic accounting instructor job because I do in fact talk to myself from time to time as I lecture;) In my computer classes while challenging my students to open up and challenge themselves ~ I am lucky I never got fired, probably should have been:eek:

FYI ~ I only began to read in the seventh grade; much later the writing, and of course the math was even later:eek: TMI ~ sorryo_O

Edit: good luck with those shares you bough recently:cool:
 
Forgive my ignorance, but when they talk about gross margin on M3, is this purely the cost of producing the cars bases on the raw materials, labor, etc., or is this this also including tooling and production setup-up spending?

This is a late reply, but when considering Gross Margin on a vehicle, a primary step is to subtract the cost of goods sold from the revenue that product brings in. Depreciation is an element of cost of goods sold. As an important example, all those robots in the production line get depreciated through some formula and then the cost of the robots is assigned over time to cost of goods sold for that vehicle. So, yes, the cost of the capital improvements directly related to the production of a vehicle eventually finds its way (spread out over years) into the cost of goods sold and is thereby considered in the gross margin computations.
 
This is a late reply, but when considering Gross Margin on a vehicle, a primary step is to subtract the cost of goods sold from the revenue that product brings in. Depreciation is an element of cost of goods sold. As an important example, all those robots in the production line get depreciated through some formula and then the cost of the robots is assigned over time to cost of goods sold for that vehicle. So, yes, the cost of the capital improvements directly related to the production of a vehicle eventually finds its way (spread out over years) into the cost of goods sold and is thereby considered in the gross margin computations.

I think Deepak said 2k in depreciation per vehicle once they hit their volume target during the Q1 call.
 
lols, no, not necessarily.

not sure if you were just joking or were wondering why I thought issuing shares was preferable to paying cash. when Tesla created the convertible they also spent money on a hedging instrument that will considerably reduce the amount of dilution that will occur if the convertible holders ended up taking shares instead of cash. if my memory is correct, something like an 80% reduction in the diluting impact if the share price doesn't rise above ~$5xx at the time the bonds are due. I would imagine the hedge is useless if the price of the stock is below $360 and the bond holders want cash rather than shares, but, I may be mistaken.
I think you're right on the hedge
 
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