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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Instead of just disagreeing, I thought I'd simply observe that this isn't quite right.

Door isn't closed. Class members (like me! ;)) can still opt out if they decide the ~$200 isn't sufficient compensation for the delay in EAP.

Of course, we'd then have to sue on our own and that's probably not worth it. As a result, to the original question, it should reduce the likelihood of future lawsuits.

As an aside, the settlement is pretty well known. Article mentions $280, but that's only for the earliest of EAP 2.0 purchasers. Later you bought it, less you get.

I think what's more interesting about this whole thing is something I don't think I've seen observed here.

A little, very rough math:

Total Settlement: 5,032,530
Attorney's Fees: 1,000,000

Amount available to claimants: $4,032,530
Likely average payment: $125 (this is guesswork, but seems about right)

Total number of U.S. EAP purchasers over 12 month period (Oct 2016 until September 2017): 32,260.

That's a pretty good uptake rate.
It is. Makes you wonder, if they were selling that many copies of AP (presumably, like most software, with a very low marginal cost) , how come they still lost about $1.5 billion over the period.
 
My experience is of a business person who has hired 30 young graduates in Spain over the past few years. The skills coming out of the universities here are very low (much less than the UK) and most of the so-called "bilingual" students can barely speak English. Couple that with the attitude that they really shouldn't work very hard (and legally people can only work a few dozen hours of overtime each year) then this would be a pretty toxic environment for Tesla to get into.

You are correct, I don't know a great deal about software engineering in Spain. I try and hire the brightest graduates from any discipline, those achieving "premios fin de carrera" and at least at 8 as a final score at university, and they say they don't even know what it is. Maybe I just have an ignorant bunch :)

Maybe you need a new interview and hiring process? Just sayin’.

For instance it can’t be that hard to determine which are truly bilingual and which aren’t in about 30 seconds. Interview over for those that aren’t if indeed it’s a requirement of the job.
 
It was only since the last CC that Tesla has stated that Model Y wouldn’t be built in Fremont. In the past they claimed that Fremont might go to 1M cars. By the end of 2018 (or whenever they are at the 10K/week M3 rate) they will be at 600K. I seriously doubt that they only figured out last month that would max out Fremont. The only explanation I can imagine for the sudden statement that Model Y will not be produced in Fremont is to use remaining space for more Model 3 production. Which could mean Model 3 production could go to 1M in 2019/2020. There you have the financing for Model Y gigafactory: 25% margin on an extra 500K Model 3s.
An new gigafactory for Model Y would also explain the Model Y delay to 2020, as building a new fab would need more time than installing equipment in Fremont.
Man I wish my brain was working like yours, and I were able to think that optimistically. My life would look much rosier :)
Where you see 1M production in Freemont, I see company that figured out it needs to be careful with automation, company that is pulling back on dreadnaught concept a bit, hence they figured they need more floor space. They never knew if they can run 1M from Freemont, but were hoping, and now know that to be wrong. _That is_ what I see.
Again, I wish I could live in a la-la land a bit more...
 
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In early February, at the time of the Q417 conference call, Musk said it would be shipped to the GF the next month. So...just 1 month from when it was supposed to ship to the GF, Musk was 2 months off on the estimated timeframe that it would ship.
Don't be so sure about this. Remember Tesla said Grohmann had one line working, and would disassemble it and ship it, and then would build and ship a second line?

I query whether the first line was shipped "slow freight" (and is probably still taking too long) and this was the second line. We lack sufficient information to tell, IMO.
 
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Instead of just disagreeing, I thought I'd simply observe that this isn't quite right.

Door isn't closed. Class members (like me! ;)) can still opt out if they decide the ~$200 isn't sufficient compensation for the delay in EAP.

Thank you for not disagreeing, since we basically agree. On a practical level, this settlement ends the matter. Legally, class members could opt out, but because of how small the potential damages are, it would be highly unusual for someone to do so.

As I read @Curious Sunbird’s original question, s/he was asking if this settlement creates more headaches for Tesla. It does the opposite.
 
Many Auto Media in China
1f1e8-1f1f3.png
get to test drive Tesla Model 3 the very first time. Positive reports are flooding all major social media lately.

here is my tweet with pix : vincent on Twitter
 
Many Auto Media in China
1f1e8-1f1f3.png
get to test drive Tesla Model 3 the very first time. Positive reports are flooding all major social media lately.

here is my tweet with pix : vincent on Twitter

China could very well be the determining factor whether we eventually produce 500-700k Model 3s per year or 1M per year.
 
Yes, that sounds about right. I don't know why you'd expect anything different. Remember his timelines for full self driving features? Coast-to-coast self driving? 2,500/wk Model 3 production? 5,000/wk Model 3 production? 10,000/wk Model 3 production? The Model X ramp?

Really, there's no point anymore to Elon even giving time estimates. Just watch actual results, they'll happen when they happen.
Looking back, Elon mentioning Grohmann line in Feb conf call may have a mistake, maybe he was talking too much as an engineer and went too far into details that seemed cool to him. From an investor communication perspective, what he really needed to stress was that they're improving the GF line to target 5k packs/wk in May, so they can ramp to 5k/wk car production in June. In the end the Grohmann line isn't the target, getting to 5k/wk is. But now that Elon talked it up so much in Q4ER call, the Grohmann line is now becoming a distraction and causing confusion.
 
Based on Q1 letter, pack production by the new line is not a limiting factor for 5k/wk.
I hope so, but based upon the Q1 CC, the Grohmann line was going to arrive in March. That didn't happen. Now it's evidently being flown in a couple of months late in order to get it in place ASAP. It's hard to ignore the implication that maybe it is needed for the 5k/wk after all. Either way, it shouldn't matter much now since we aren't there yet and the line will likely be up and running pretty soon.
 
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Yes, that sounds about right. I don't know why you'd expect anything different. Remember his timelines for full self driving features? Coast-to-coast self driving? 2,500/wk Model 3 production? 5,000/wk Model 3 production? 10,000/wk Model 3 production? The Model X ramp?

Really, there's no point anymore to Elon even giving time estimates. Just watch actual results, they'll happen when they happen.
Very true. I admit to being a tad bit disappointed over the timing on this one just because he was only forecasting a timeline 1 month out but missed it by 2 months. Ahh, Elon.
 
Even though it must be extremely expensive, I think Musk is right to spare no expense on M3 (and to spend no expense on anything else) right now. He has bet the farm on Q3 & Q4 and needs to make them work.
Tesla has been 'no expense sparred' everywhere for some time now. This is typical approach for Silicon Valley and for well capitalized startups that are disruptive: growth is all that matters, throw money at the problem. Operational excellence isn't something you chase while growing.
One weakness of the short thesis is that this mindset could (and should) change at some point. Tesla was rather capital efficient as it was growing through Model S ramp (or thereabout), and they can do it again with less or more effort.
I actually was part of such a startup in 2000(move quick and burn money), and I thought it was crazy to spend all that money. Boy was I wrong. SP has gone up ~60x in the end, yup, some 6000%
 
Don't be so sure about this. Remember Tesla said Grohmann had one line working, and would disassemble it and ship it, and then would build and ship a second line?

I query whether the first line was shipped "slow freight" (and is probably still taking too long) and this was the second line. We lack sufficient information to tell, IMO.
It's possible but seems more likely to me that we would have heard about the line arriving and getting installed by now. I agree that we don't know for sure.
 
Filled up the ICE earlier today, had to stop the smelly pump at $99 as could not bring myself to spend over three digits for a tank of regular petro. $1.40CAD/litre her in Toronto, Canada. That's $7USD/gallon which is still quite low compared to European Countries. The last time gas price was this high was when Hurricane Katrina hit and the price per barrel of US Brent Crude then was $115USD/barrel. Now it is only $70USD/barrel. Price gouging by Big Oil is prevalent. My negative mood quickly changed however, when I received confirmation of my M3 delivery date for June 7th. Woot! Woot!

(M3 ordered April 1st, 2016, however I've been waiting for this EV ever since October 2012 when I first read about Tesla's Secret Master Plan. It will be well worth the wait, for that I am sure.)
 
Very true. I admit to being a tad bit disappointed over the timing on this one just because he was only forecasting a timeline 1 month out but missed it by 2 months. Ahh, Elon.
I don't think missing it by 2 months is exactly the right way to describe it. I think more accurately, they plan for Grohmann line changed twice between Feb Q4ER and now. Initially they thought they needed it shipped in March, then in early May they thought they won't need it in Q2, and now they they think they need it again. I think it just shows the "you don't know until you know" nature of the ramp. In the end as long as they get to 5k/wk on target, this doesn't matter.

Also I still think it's a possibility that they're switching to Grohmann line because they have achieved the 5k/wk pack production, and they want to free up manpower ASAP to ramp other parts of the production.
 
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I don't think missing it by 2 months is exactly the right way to describe it. I think more accurately, they plan for Grohmann line changed twice between Feb Q4ER and now. Initially they thought they needed it shipped in March, then in early May they thought they won't need it in Q2, and now they they think they need it again. I think it just shows the "you don't know until you know" nature of the ramp. In the end as long as they get to 5k/wk on target, this doesn't matter.

Also I still think it's a possibility that they're switching to Grohmann line because they have achieved the 5k/wk pack production, and they want to free up manpower ASAP to ramp other parts of the production.
I don't feel it's useful for Tesla and Elon to have people defend absolutely everything that happens. They have and are achieving enough without this kind of support. We should hold a mirror to them, so they know what they're doing right and what they're failing, not flatter them. One could be both objective/critical and understanding/supporting at the same time.
It's like parenting ;)
 
I don't feel it's useful for Tesla and Elon to have people defend absolutely everything that happens. They have and are achieving enough without this kind of support. We should hold a mirror to them, so they know what they're doing right and what they're failing, not flatter them. One could be both objective/critical and understanding/supporting at the same time.
It's like parenting ;)
So what have they done wrong here, exactly? Do we know for sure? I think "not rushing to accuse" is the other side of the coin to "not blindly defend Tesla". I'm just trying to work out what possible scenarios there could be that could explain the shipment.
 
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I hope so, but based upon the Q1 CC, the Grohmann line was going to arrive in March. That didn't happen. Now it's evidently being flown in a couple of months late in order to get it in place ASAP. It's hard to ignore the implication that maybe it is needed for the 5k/wk after all. Either way, it shouldn't matter much now since we aren't there yet and the line will likely be up and running pretty soon.

As of a month ago (Q1 letter) it was not needed for 5k/wk.
For months, the battery module line was our main production bottleneck. After deploying multiple semi-automated lines and improving our original lines, we have largely overcome this bottleneck. Consequently, we now expect to reach a module production rate of 5,000 car sets per week even before we install the new automated line designed and built by Tesla in Germany. Still, once installed, this new automated module line should significantly lower manufacturing costs. Our automation team in Germany is currently focusing on further capacity expansion where needed.
 
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