TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[DaveT]

TSLA has been in a 9.5 month consolidation period.

Starting from April 10, 2017 until now (Jan 28, 2018).

Low during that time was $295.30. High during that time was 386.99.

If you take $345 stock price as average, then TSLA has fluctuated within a rather tight range of +/- 15%.

It’s likely to remain in this consolidation range of $295-387 until Q4 earnings (Feb 7) at least.

But the question is after Q4 earnings will it stay in consolidation range, break under, or break out above.

 

[DaveT]

TSLA has been a laggard in performance over the last 4 years when compared to stocks like AMZN and FB.

 

[Krugerrand]

TSLA has been a laggard in performance over the last 4 years when compared to stocks like AMZN and FB.
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Gosh, when you put it that way I’m totally depressed about my 10-bagger+.

 

[Tslynk67]

I’d get a loan!

Well I'd normally just borrow it from my company, but I'm walking a cash-flow tightrope for the coming months

 

[HG Wells]

Very quiet in this thread.

Dow down a hundred, NASDAQ down 35 but Tesla is staying right around neutral.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 23 minutes ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Shares Near Session Highs, Up 0.1%; Recently Seeing Unusual Option Activity: Feb. $362.50 Calls At The Bid Showing Volume Of 900 Contracts vs Open Interest Of 235 Contracts

This implies that an entity bid $639,000 to buy well out of the money thinly-traded call options, and someone (market maker?) agreed to write the contracts. The buyer is apparently quite optimistic about TSLA for the next few weeks; perhaps he thinks he knows something.

BTW, today is the fifth anniversary of my first purchase of TSLA shares at $37.96. I too was optimistic and thought I might know something.

 

[Cartegena]

Benzinga - 23 minutes ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Shares Near Session Highs, Up 0.1%; Recently Seeing Unusual Option Activity: Feb. $362.50 Calls At The Bid Showing Volume Of 900 Contracts vs Open Interest Of 235 Contracts

This implies that an entity bid $639,000 to buy well out of the money thinly-traded call options, and someone (market maker?) agreed to write the contracts. The buyer is apparently quite optimistic about TSLA at least through mid-February; perhaps he thinks he knows something.

Wouldn't a large transaction at the bid indicate the non-market maker side of the transaction was anxious to sell the contracts?

 

[Curt Renz]

Wouldn't a large transaction at the bid indicate the non-market maker side of the transaction was anxious to sell the contracts?

It was likely a market maker or hedge fun that wrote (sold) the contracts. With open interest at the close on Friday far less than than the size of this particular trade (and a volume today of only 1 contract prior to this trade), the writer would not have been selling contracts that he already owned. A market maker would not likely have made such a bid that was much larger than the open interest, yet near the market price. It appears to me that an unknown entity bid for and bought option contracts that a market maker or hedge fund agreed to write.

 

[HG Wells]

Benzinga - 23 minutes ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Shares Near Session Highs, Up 0.1%; Recently Seeing Unusual Option Activity: Feb. $362.50 Calls At The Bid Showing Volume Of 900 Contracts vs Open Interest Of 235 Contracts

This implies that an entity bid $639,000 to buy well out of the money thinly-traded call options, and someone (market maker?) agreed to write the contracts. The buyer is apparently quite optimistic about TSLA for the next few weeks; perhaps he thinks he knows something.

BTW, today is the fifth anniversary of my first purchase of TSLA shares at $37.96. I too was optimistic and thought I might know something.

Sounds like someone thinks they know something. I wonder if they are basing this large purchase of calls on something we've overlooked, or perhaps some inside knowledge.

I really don't want to bet anything more than what I've already got on the table, but it sure makes me curious!

The other question is why 362.5 for February 16 call. Why not go with 360 or 365 both of which would have much more volume.

 

[Reciprocity]

Sounds like someone thinks they know something. I wonder if they are basing this large purchase of calls on something we've overlooked, or perhaps some inside knowledge.

I really don't want to bet anything more than what I've already got on the table, but it sure makes me curious!

The other question is why 362.5 for February 16 call. Why not go with 360 or 365 both of which would have much more volume.

I don't know but I have gobs of 355 March 16 that I have been averaging down every day before today that gapped up nicely. I don't plan on holding them that long but it will be nut cutting time next week before the earnings call.

Can anyone suggest some downside protection that won't kill the profits?

 

[Cartegena]

It was likely a market maker or hedge fun that wrote (sold) the contracts. With open interest at the close on Friday far less than than the size of this particular trade (and a volume today of only 1 contract prior to this trade), the writer would not have been selling contracts that he already owned. A market maker would not likely have made such a bid that was much larger than the open interest, yet near the market price. It appears to me that an unknown entity bid for and bought option contracts that a market maker or hedge fund agreed to write.

Agreed that the writer did not previously own that number of contracts but why is this presumptively a single, stand alone purchase? Couldn't this trade be just as easily part of a multi-leg transaction or a naked write?

 

[Curt Renz]

Agreed that the writer did not previously own that number of contracts but why is this presumptively a single, stand alone purchase? Couldn't this trade be just as easily part of a multi-leg transaction or a naked write?

It was reported as a single trade for 900 contracts, therefore there would have been single entities on each side of the trade at the single price of $7.10. It could have been a naked write, but more likely the writer was a market maker or hedge fund that simultaneously bought some TSLA shares as a hedge. The writer probably saw the bid appear, and took it as an opportunity to accommodate with what he calculated as likely resulting in an eventual profit.

 

[HG Wells]

I'm beginning to think the call trader does know something.

So he bought 362.5 for 7. Expects at least 370 by February 16.
I'll be happy if we get to 360. 370 would make me ecstatic.

 

[bdy0627]

I wasn't expecting this kind of strength today from TSLA. I'm giving some thought on what to do with my March calls I picked up on the cheap last week after the Spiegel fake article. Already up over 20%. I don't have strong confidence we will rise from here through the ER. No idea really. I think I'll hold all of them for a few more days perhaps.

 

[SteveG3]

though hardly reported on, perhaps favorable reception to the $500-600 million in new cash to be made available to Tesla via an asset backed loan (not dilutive to shares), is part of today's move up.

 

[NicoV]

I'm beginning to think the call trader does know something.

So he bought 362.5 for 7. Expects at least 370 by February 16.
I'll be happy if we get to 360. 370 would make me ecstatic.

Maybe somebody who wants to accummulate a large position, large enough to move the price upwards because of the buying pressure. And who uses the calls to let somebody else pay for the price movement.

 

[Lessmog]

At the risk of appearing politically motivated, I must express a nudging suspicion that the rise in TSLA is because the market is happy about the next FED chief McCabe having to step down, perhaps temporarily reducing the risk for the president and his close circle to be indicted for obstruction, money laundering or whatever. The timing does seem to fit.

My 2 cent rambling. Disregard if you want.

 

[elasalle]

At the risk of appearing politically motivated, I must express a nudging suspicion that the rise in TSLA is because the market is happy about the next FED chief McCabe having to step down, perhaps temporarily reducing the risk for the president and his close circle to be indicted for obstruction, money laundering or whatever. The timing does seem to fit.

My 2 cent rambling. Disregard if you want.

SPY , NASDAQ is down along with some other big names. So doubt it ??

 

[bdy0627]

Money flowing into TSLA partly due to the rest of the market getting up so high so quickly?

 

[Lessmog]

SPY , NASDAQ is down along with some other big names. So doubt it ??

Thanks, that's at least a bit reassuring. Can I go to bed now?