TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[kbM3]

are you sure you can treat them like stochastic processes? variability reduces with square root of N?

I feel like I'm almost smart enough to get this joke, but just not quite.

 

[RedMS]

Ah just like I wanted. A nice steady climb

 

[madodel]

I expect most of rational shorts to cover in the coming weeks, if not doing it now. None of the bear thesis with higher chances of success can be proven right in the next months: Be it Q3/Q4 losses or 2019Q1 losses, it could take until November to figure that out. The rest of the thesis are quite weak and rely too much on coincidences, which is not good for making money as a rational short.

The market expects a weak Q2, so it's discounted already, and it may only change in the right direction. And we have 5K + Giga-factory + subsequent analysts updates + subsequent click-bait stories + subsequent journalistic stories on the radar. Barring any disaster, the chances of stock price going up significantly, and even mini or macro short squeezes are huge.

Just broke $350, next resistance $353?

Nah, Tesla is losing money on every car they make. Smeigel said so. Bankwuptsy here they come.

 

[Chocochip]

I was expecting a top mid-day, but looks like this thing just keeps going up and up! If I were short, I'd be very afraid at this point.

For those more knowledgeable than me, are margin calls triggered by the day closing price or the intraday value?

 

[wipster]

Over 351! What the heck is driving this? Is the market on AP?

 

[NicoV]

At this point, I have no idea. This could just keep burning enough shorts daily for margin calls to create a delicious vicious cycle.

I learned on his board some time ago that it is called a virtuous cycle. Of course only from the point of view of the longs.

 

[RABaby]

Which is louder?

The squeals of joy for holders of TSLA
The shrieks of agony for shorts who haven't covered
The moans of despair for former holders of TSLA who sold too early?

 

[johnnybgood888]

Hmmm, what I said yesterday....

Can you write one for $350?

 

[Robocop]

As somebody who actually bought a lot in October @350, today comes as a relief.

 

[mltv]

Which is louder?

The squeals of joy for holders of TSLA
The shrieks of agony for shorts who haven't covered
The moans of despair for former holders of TSLA who sold too early?

All the above. collectively

 

[LordAstinus]

Nah, Tesla is losing money on every car they make. Smeigel said so. Bankwuptsy here they come.

I was talking about rational shorts, the rest took a trip to Singapore, to join their peers.

 

[Starno]

Over 351! What the heck is driving this? Is the market on AP?

Probably a mix of multiple things :
- Broad market recovering from February correction (caused by fear of interest rates hike...)
- Trade war with China seems to be over
- Nuclear war risks with NK seems to be over as well
- " Tesla FUD " spike seems to be kinda fading off
- EM being quite confident to achieve 5k/w by end of the month
- US economy in good shape overall

 

[jhm]

Camp out at $370? I've got a whole mess of beans for ya.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Nah, Tesla is losing money on every car they make. Smeigel said so. Bankwuptsy here they come.

Actually, it's shorts losing money with every share that they sell

 

[LoveTSLA]

Can you write one for $350?

Well, I am sure I won’t sell @ 400.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Funny I sold my AMD shares on 3/26 at $10.26/share, to buy TSLA and NVDA. I got tired of that dog keep going down when there really so much going for it. I guess the bears got me - pretty much demoralized me.

TESLA will go to $400 to $500 within a few months and eventually to $3000 to $6000 a share within next 3 to 5 years
hold on for the ride

 

[ggies07]

Time for this again!

 

[Chocochip]

Today it's going up faster than I ever remember it going down... and that's rare!

 

[Mich]

oh. I spent two days at work focusing on other stuff and we skipped all the 32x, 33x and 34x. I go offline now.

 

[wipster]

Probably a mix of multiple things :
- Broad market recovering from February correction (caused by fear of interest rates hike...)
- Trade war with China seems to be over
- Nuclear war risks with NK seems to be over as well
- " Tesla FUD " spike seems to be kinda fading off
- EM being quite confident to achieve 5k/w by end of the month
- US economy in good shape overall

Thanks Starno, I'm sure all of those are big contributors, along with KeyBanc's new delivery estimate, but for the SP to be up over 20 points right now, I think there is another driver that we aren't aware of yet that may soon surface. Regardless, I'm a happy boy!