TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Last time Musk predicted a tsunami of hurt it took six months before it happened. Maybe he is not so good on timelines

As a long-term investor who sometimes dabbles in options, I'm fine with six months; my shortest-term positions expire next January (and I'm on the good side of time decay on most of them).

 

[Boomer19]

if he overestimated the effect on the market that hitting 5k would have, and and there is no other news...that’s a problem.

a self imposed goal, and a necessary goal, explained here;
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable)

but if 5k is all he’s been roasting shorts about for the last couple months;
- short burn of century
- short positions explode
- who likes short shorts
then he’s looking like the goat, at the moment.

i know this is a long game, but hes playing into their hands. it’s one thing to defend, its another to taunt. i suggest he grows some thicker skin, stays off twitter, and does what he’s supposed to do. you want to beat them? do it with actions, not words.

i hope he makes me look like an idiot for posting this, i really do. and i know some of you will be all over me for this.
but i hate when the bad guys are steering the ship. and i believe some of the recent behavior, while under pressure, enables the haters to appear correct, and dissuades newbies and potential newbies from knowing the truth about the company, it’s goals, and how they hope to achieve them.

i don’t think i’m alone when i say this really p!sses me off. and i think that i/we have a right to be, albeit temporary

that being said;
anyone who believes that tesla is in trouble is seriously deluded. it’s hard to focus long term when you have such waste to sift through short term. that is one of the main benefits of tmc.
people are now doubting resv numbers and all kinds of data points. once these cars start hitting the roads in droves, you think that won’t affect resv? do people honestly believe that tesla won’t keep improving production. they have improved model 3 production much faster than they have improved S and X production. and it will continue with each existing vehicle and future products. so like i said, shorts can bask for moments in time, but if they aren’t smart, they’ll be cooked with the rest of the turkeys.

 

[bdy0627]

I have waited to add some more LEAPs quite some time now.
Personally I have seen yesterday's SP movement as obviously irrational short term SP movement. Today is even more so.
I am currently thinking about buying some more LEAPs today here at this level and saving some dry powder down to $270.
This is just crazy volatility.
What does anybody else think?
Thanks in advance!

I think you will do very well. Premiums are elevated for a reason. I believe those selling covered long term calls are taking a huge risk here. Having said that, if the stock continues down or even consolidates for the rest of the week, you are better off being patient. Tough call and it's easy to second guess.

 

[neroden]

Looks like this is the short narrative now: Shouting CEO, changing rules: inside Tesla's Model 3-building sprint

The tl;dr version is basically claims that 12 hour shifts, mandatory weekend shifts without notice, and taking people off the S line and bumping Model 3s ahead of Model S in the paint shop is what's going on, as part of the whole burst rate narrative.

While ignoring that every time this sort of thing has been reported before (which is many, many times), Tesla has turned it into a sustained rate within a month. I'm sure the current bottlenecks are being fixed as fast as Tesla can work on them. I expect another gigantic equipment order to be set up before October in order to exceed 6000/week.

There is a problem with burning out employees; witness Doug Field. I don't think this will catch up with Tesla for several more years as they keep attracting employees, but it needs to be gotten under control.

 

[Boomer19]

Looks like this is the short narrative now: Shouting CEO, changing rules: inside Tesla's Model 3-building sprint

The tl;dr version is basically claims that 12 hour shifts, mandatory weekend shifts without notice, and taking people off the S line and bumping Model 3s ahead of Model S in the paint shop is what's going on, as part of the whole burst rate narrative.

this is what i meant...unnecessary ammo to spread fud. just do what you do best and the problems you can’t control will be controlled

 

[BrianZ]

I think I will be using up all my dry powder to buy September calls today at the ~$318 price points near the end of today's trading day.

I agree with many here that there is a very high chance that the bear raids will continue on Thursday and Friday, driving the prices even lower. However, there is a small chance that Elon is prepping his short burn of the century surprise on 4th of July. This presents a heavily skewed risk vs reward scenario where I have a high probability of losing a small amount of money from the continued bear raids, but I would stand to gain hugely if Elon shows his cards on July 4th, and I believe the expected value is positive.

Plus, if I were Elon, and I were setting up a short burn of the century, and I announced that it is gonna happen around now, I would definitely do it on the 4th of July, a day of fireworks and (short) explosions just to make it an extra painful revenge to the shorts that have hurt Elon so much in the past.

 

[Boomer19]

I think I will be using up all my dry powder to buy September calls today at the ~$318 price points.

I agree with many here that there is a very high chance that the bear raids will continue on Thursday and Friday, driving the prices even lower. However, there is a small chance that Elon is prepping his short burn of the century surprise on 4th of July. This presents a heavily skewed risk vs reward scenario where I have a high probability of losing a small amount of money from the continued bear raids, but I would stand to gain hugely if Elon shows his cards on July 4th, and I believe the expected value is positive.

Plus, if I were Elon, and I was setting up a short burn of the century, I would definitely do it on the 4th of July, a day of fireworks and (short) explosions just to make it an extra painful revenge to the shorts that have hurt Elon so much in the past.

personally i always buy in trauches. peoples situations and strategies differ

 

[bhtooefr]

While ignoring that every time this sort of thing has been reported before (which is many, many times), Tesla has turned it into a sustained rate within a month. I'm sure the current bottlenecks are being fixed as fast as Tesla can work on them. I expect another gigantic equipment order to be set up before October in order to exceed 6000/week.

There is a problem with burning out employees; witness Doug Field. I don't think this will catch up with Tesla for several more years as they keep attracting employees, but it needs to be gotten under control.

Yeah, and of course the entire story is based on an anonymous employee's claims, which... could easily be a disgruntled employee like Tripp.

Just saying that this article looks like it's the narrative being used to push today's bear raid.

 

[Tiger]

CF who? They think 5k is unsustainable, just like 2k was unsustainable...

It is absolutely true that 5k is unsustainable, they need to go to 6k and 10k fast, 5k is so unsunstainable.

 

[jelloslug]

Boy, the FUD is getting laid on thick today.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Full disclosure...

I am an absolute imbicile when it comes to the stock market. With that said can somebody please...in very simple terms...explain to me what is going on?

5000 Model 3s per week was supposed to be a major positive milestone. So rather than having a positive impact, the stock tanks. What is actually happening to send it into this spiral? I understand the concept of shorting. So how does the institutional entities wield this kind of power to manipulate the market like this? This big of a price swing can't possibly be the result of individual investors bailing out. This seems to be a massive planned attack of some sort. Please explain how this is happening. Not crying in my beer or anything, just trying to understand how this is happening.

Thanks for any help.

Dan

 

[Boomer19]

personally i always buy in trauches. peoples situations and strategies differ

maybe my curmudgeonous behavior today is rooted in now having to do yard work on a holdiday week. i’ve been trimming positions and replanting new ones. i was planning on having the week off and enjoying the vaca time. here i am gumming up the works in tmc and working on tsla

 

[jelloslug]

Full disclosure...

I am an absolute invisible when it comes to the stock market. Whither that said can somebody please...in very simple terms...explain to me what is going on?

5000 Model 3s per week was supposed to be a major positive milestone. So rather than having a positive impact, the stock tanks. What is actually happening to send it into this spiral? I understand the concept of shorting. So how does the institutional entities wield this kind of power to manipulate the market like this? This big of a price swing can't possibly be the result of individual investors bailing out. This seems to be a massive planned attack of some sort. Please explain how this is happening. Not crying in my beer or anything, just trying to understand how this is happening.

Thanks for any help.

Dan

The short sellers are taking advantage of the holiday to drive the selling price down.

 

[Drax7]

Looks like this is the short narrative now: Shouting CEO, changing rules: inside Tesla's Model 3-building sprint

The tl;dr version is basically claims that 12 hour shifts, mandatory weekend shifts without notice, and taking people off the S line and bumping Model 3s ahead of Model S in the paint shop is what's going on, as part of the whole burst rate narrative.

Then you get assembly line workeres photographed signing a huge billboard with the 5000 production
Goal achievement to memorialize their accomplishment.

This source must be a union organizer trying to undermine tesla.

 

[Boomer19]

Full disclosure...

I am an absolute imbicile when it comes to the stock market. Whither that said can somebody please...in very simple terms...explain to me what is going on?

5000 Model 3s per week was supposed to be a major positive milestone. So rather than having a positive impact, the stock tanks. What is actually happening to send it into this spiral? I understand the concept of shorting. So how does the institutional entities wield this kind of power to manipulate the market like this? This big of a price swing can't possibly be the result of individual investors bailing out. This seems to be a massive planned attack of some sort. Please explain how this is happening. Not crying in my beer or anything, just trying to understand how this is happening.

Thanks for any help.

Dan

in a small window we ran from 285-290 to 372 (really, in that down period, the stk witnessed just below 250 if you expand the window a bit). but the main range was 275-305. the 5k was expected, and mostly built into price.

i keep referring people to below when trying to understand the circus that is tsla stock price war
Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

 

[Dan Detweiler]

in a small window we ran from 285-290 to 372 (really, in that down period, the stk witnessed just below 250 if you expand the window a bit). but the main range was 275-305. the 5k was expected, and mostly built into price.

i keep referring people to below when trying to understand the circus that is tsla stock price war
Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

But what is actually happening to drive this trend so dramatically down?

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The short sellers are taking advantage of the holiday to drive the selling price down.

How? Not trying to be a jerk. I really don't understand how they are doing this. What is actually happening in the way of buying and selling?

 

[BrianZ]

How?

Neroden explains in this wonderful post here

 

[W84M3]

The short sellers are taking advantage of the holiday to drive the selling price down.

What holiday? We're already at 8,2 MILLION shares traded, 2 hours in. Yesterday 18,7 million shares traded.

I follow TSLA for the last 4 years; this is very high volume.

 

[mongo]

How?

The SP is just the last trade that occurred. There is no volume on the buying side, so when the short (or whomever) sells at market, it moves the SP down the bid list. If people were interesting in buying at market, it would move the SP up the ask list.
On top of that, if people have stop loss orders in place, once the SP drops to them, there is more selling at market happening.