TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Thanks, then I will not worry that Tesla could be said to have reached 200k US sales in Q2.

There's a reason I could address your concern....

 

[Hogfighter]

@Hogfighter where is your negativity index at today? Judging from some of the last posts we may be not far from the bottom...

Yea it’s at 8+. The only entity producing good news re: Tesla is Tesla.

 

[jhm]

@neroden already answered most of your questions, but on this one his answer was a bit too terse. Yes, E gets the actual dividend from the company. However part of the arrangement for the shorts to borrow the shares is that they are on the hook for paying any missing dividends, too... So B has to pay the dividend to A, and D has to pay it to C.

This also illustrates how issuance of a dividend can effectively force shorts to pay rent to longs, potentially discouraging shorting activity. Likewise, stock buybacks will make it harder for shorts to cover by shrinking the supply of shares. This are both options of a company that is generating sufficient cash flow and earnings to return capital back to shareholders.

Soooo, long-tern when Tesla is spitting off a ridiculous amount of cash, this extra cash can be directed through dividends and stock buybacks to making shorts pay. Success is the best revenge.

 

[mershaw2001]

Remember these goals are set by Elon Musk and Tesla themselves. It’s not forced upon them. Saying that they cheated on the 5000/wk goal in this context makes no sense. It’s like if I had a goal to lose 10lbs in a month and then at the end of the month decided to weigh myself on the top of mt Rushmore to “lose” those last couple of pounds. It’s absurdity. Honestly the situation currently is at a point where you feel like these claims are not worth rebutting to avoid giving them even a sliver of legitimacy but at the same time can’t leave them around to fester. The tactic is basically negative distractions on distractions on distractions. I feel like Tesla needs to have their own talking heads and pump out some positive bullhockey of their own to counter this FUD.

Elon announced to the world that they were going to be doing 5k at the end of Q2. Once he made that announcement, he was held to it, and the narrative that was promoted by the media was that Elon has made announcements before and has often missed them. If he missed the 5000 then it reflects poorly on his judgment skills.
There certainly would be incentive to cheat on that goal because it changes how the media treats the company.

Furthermore, I would debate that these goals "are not forced upon him". I would argue that while the specific number comes out of elon's mouth, if he were to proclaim that they were not producing enough in a month or year in the future it would lead to a reduction in the share price.
For instance he has said that they will be producing 6000 shortly. He is forced to claim a number that shows a reasonable rate of improvement. If he were to claim 5000 will be produced in october, the stock price would fall even more.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Fantasy Tesla Announcement for the Fourth of July:

Model 3 reservations also apply to the Model Y.

My thinking is this. Many reservationholders will still be waiting for a Model 3 by the time the Model Y is unveiled in Q1 2019. As a reward for patience, these reservationholders will have the option to apply their reservation to either the Model 3 or the Model Y.

Such an announcement would effectively open reservations for the Model Y immediately. Tesla would be flush with new deposits as those waiting for the Model Y step forward.

It's a fantasy.

Well... Tesla let you apply your reservation payment towards an S or X if you decided not to wait, if I recall correctly. So transferring it to a Y reservation does not seem at all far fetched.

 

[hacer]

The EV Credit cut off is based on vehicles sold for use in the US: not produced, reserved, nor ordered.

The language on the form 8936 for claiming the credit actually says it is the date that the "vehicle is put into service". So it could even be later than when sold; I think if it's being shipped to you on a car carrier, it is not "in service" yet even though it is sold.

 

[schonelucht]

Can you please tell me what you mean by a “significant chunk”?
Weren’t you the same person who recently said you thought it was most likely that the 200,000 car was sold in quarter 2? Still waiting to see how accurate that prediction was.

Yes, ironically because I expected Tesla to produce about 10k more cars than they actually did.

Seems I hit a sore spot by questioning the 5k number. I get that.

The factory is a multitude bigger than a tent that supposedly assembled 20% of lasts week production run. Yet it’s full. Weird no? Only a few months ago the factory was going to produce 10k/week yet just 4000/wk made it overflow. Weird no? When Fremont opened for business the talk of the town was how clean, spacious, organized and well lit it was. And yes, it was all those things. Taken a look at floor of recent pictures? Clean and spacious and well organized? In fact anyone paid attention to the content of those pictures? Lines of motors and seas of seats. Yet supposedly I am the one deserving to be mocked for daring to suggest that maybe some work was stockpiled?

I knew I was inviting disagrees from the usual posters mostly showing their total lack of experience in manufacturing but critical thinking capacity is really at an all time low. Hopefully we’ll heal when the stock price moves up again.

Let me just say this. Tesla will get there, that’s obvious for anyone outside of the shorts bubble. But Tesla will also not get there in the time frame you guys all are hoping for. And that’s just as obvious for anyone outside the bubble that is this investor section.

 

[schonelucht]

Well... Tesla let you apply your reservation payment towards an S or X if you decided not to wait, if I recall correctly. So transferring it to a Y reservation does not seem at all far fetched.

The reverse however is not possible : you can’t switch an S deposit to a 3 reservation. Anyway the last thing Tesla now wants is to communicate with it’s customer about Y.

 

[MP3Mike]

The factory is a multitude bigger than a tent that supposedly assembled 20% of lasts week production run. Yet it’s full. Weird no?

You do realize that the GA4 "tent" is only the final portion of the Model 3 production line right? The majority of the car build is all done inside the main factory: stamping, body assembly/welding, painting, skateboard building, marriage of skateboard and body, etc.. So every Model 3 that comes off of GA4 has gone through the majority of it's life in the main factory.

Not to mention all of the Model S&X production lines.

 

[bdy0627]

Yes, ironically because I expected Tesla to produce about 10k more cars than they actually did.

Seems I hit a sore spot by questioning the 5k number. I get that.

The factory is a multitude bigger than a tent that supposedly assembled 20% of lasts week production run. Yet it’s full. Weird no? Only a few months ago the factory was going to produce 10k/week yet just 4000/wk made it overflow. Weird no? When Fremont opened for business the talk of the town was how clean, spacious, organized and well lit it was. And yes, it was all those things. Taken a look at floor of recent pictures? Clean and spacious and well organized? In fact anyone paid attention to the content of those pictures? Lines of motors and seas of seats. Yet supposedly I am the one deserving to be mocked for daring to suggest that maybe some work was stockpiled?

I knew I was inviting disagrees from the usual posters mostly showing their total lack of experience in manufacturing but critical thinking capacity is really at an all time low. Hopefully we’ll heal when the stock price moves up again.

Let me just say this. Tesla will get there, that’s obvious for anyone outside of the shorts bubble. But Tesla will also not get there in the time frame you guys all are hoping for. And that’s just as obvious for anyone outside the bubble that is this investor section.

It's healthy to be skeptical about the timeframes. It looks like it is reasonable to expect Tesla to be sustaining a 5,000/week production rate by September. That should set them up for a pretty nice Q3 and very nice Q4. When do you expect them to get to 5,000/week sustained?

 

[generalenthu]

The factory is a multitude bigger than a tent that supposedly assembled 20% of lasts week production run. Yet it’s full. Weird no? Only a few months ago the factory was going to produce 10k/week yet just 4000/wk made it overflow. Weird no?

No. The factory does a lot more than General Assembly.

 

[brian45011]

But it does matter that the vehicle was not acquired for use in Q2 (drivable and title transferred as the state).

Internal Revenue Bulletin: 2009-48 | Internal Revenue Service

Further, the OEMs self report their numbers...

Huh, are most dealerships 'retail dealers'? If so, GM may need to count dealer inventory...

Why are only Ford's, BMW's, and Daimler's quarterly reports of credit-eligible vehicles available to the public?

 

[MP3Mike]

Well... Tesla let you apply your reservation payment towards an S or X if you decided not to wait, if I recall correctly. So transferring it to a Y reservation does not seem at all far fetched.

Everything I have read has said that this isn't the case. You have to order your Model S/X and put down a deposit, and then request a refund of your Model 3 reservation.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Everything I have read has said that this isn't the case. You have to order your Model S/X and put down a deposit, and then request a refund of your Model 3 reservation.

Interesting. I'd never seen anyone complain about having to jump through hoops, simply stating they "converted" their reservation...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm as confused as you, Dan. I get how short selling works, but the whole bear raid thing makes no sense to me in this case:

1. Volume is low because long institutional traders are on vacation? These guys are the smart money. Not the lazy and stupid money. If a stock they want to hold is on sale, they will buy it, any time. They don't make money and get bonuses by being too damn lazy to pick up a computer on July 2 or July 3.
2. If it's the low volume that enables the bears to drive the price down, why are they bothering? What good does it do them to drive price down briefly during low volume? They can't cover much of their shorts without volume.
3. Apparently volume was actually high today, not low. Same yesterday, right?

I'd welcome any explanation, and I am certainly no expert. But this does not smell like just a short term bear raid to me.

Check 2017. Almost the same pattern, almost the same volume. Bear raid starts the volume, and momentum traders amplify it.
And yes, big guys are making enough money so that they will not bother working on a Holiday week.

 

[brian45011]

You do realize that the GA4 "tent" is only the final portion of the Model 3 production line right? The majority of the car build is all done inside the main factory: ...marriage of skateboard and body, .

Why do the pictures show fork-lifts moving painted body frames into the tent?

 

[mongo]

Why are only Ford's, BMW's, and Daimler's quarterly reports of credit-eligible vehicles available to the public?

There is another thread on this topic.. but since trading is closed.... The IRS needs a wavier from the OEM to release the data.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Thanks. I think I heard this approach on Tesla Daily Podcast? If you look at all the numbers, multiplying by 14 gets you either very slightly over or very slightly under the next quarter's production. That would put us at 70,000 for Q3! That would be awesome. Seems doable if not a bit optimistic.

Not correct. In the past quarters, Tesla was scaling towards much larger production rate, so volume at the end of quarter was making it look good. But we're not scaling towards 10-15K a week this quarter, so calculation wouldn't hold...

 

[mongo]

The majority of the car build is all done inside the main factory: stamping, body assembly/welding, painting, skateboard building, marriage of skateboard and body, etc..

I though so at first also, but later images/ movies show only a painted frame arriving at GA4.
The wiring, brake lines and such need to go on before the skateboard/ power train.

 

[YasB]

115.8% TSLA