TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

That's why the "5000/week" goal is kinda weird. What is significant about being able to pump out 5000 in a week?

That is Tesla's reported threshold for profitability on the Model 3 line (for some ASP).

Question for Q2 call: why were deliveries below 1700/week?

Answer: Delivery numbers were down due to saving our customers money by delaying the EV credit phase out until Q3. The steep ramp also placed many cars in transit at the end of the quarter. If you look at the production numbers, we averaged ~2,200 a week for the full quarter or ~2,600 a week for the 11 weeks the factory was running. Additionally, deliveries in July surpassed 20k with 10k in transit.
Now to YouTube

 

[cheshire cat]

Wait... there's an astrophysics thread??

Do a search. Google "Mr Olsen". Apologies to Frank Drebin ;-)

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

And when the answer (which any analyst paying attention should know) is: "Duh... we were stockpiling to time our 200K delivery with the beginning of Q3 for customer tax benefit purposes. That means an extra 10K+ cars will get delivered in Q3", what will the brilliant Wall St. geniuses say?

Answer: Delivery numbers were down due to saving our customers money by delaying the EV credit phase out until Q3.

If that's the case, why didn't they say that in the Q2 letter?

And why haven't they publicly stated when they made their 200,000th US delivery?

And given their cash position, why didn't they ship cars to Canada or another country?

 

[bobinfla]

Wait... there's an astrophysics thread??

I think it's over in the 2020 Roadster section. A lot of math being done to figure out how much thrust is needed to by the thrusters to propel the new Roadster to the speed of light or something.

 

[JRP3]

And given their cash position, why didn't they ship cars to Canada or another country?

More bonehead...

 

[The Blue Owl]

Again, I think you're looking at the wrong metric.

[...setting up the irony...]

Question for Q2 call: why were deliveries below 1700/week? (This is what's tanking the stock price)

Ah, yes, the kind of intelligent, probing question "that our clients would like clarified" that leads Elon straight to YouTube (see: boneheaded).

Tesla tripled their Model 3 production overnight (see: impossible) leading to the increase of cars in transit (see: conservation of mass). Unless you think the bulk of the cars in transit are going to sit on dealership lots for months (see: Ford -- send love to the team), you are focussing on the wrong metric (see: trolling).

 

[mongo]

If that's the case, why didn't they say that in the Q2 letter?
And why haven't they publicly stated when they made their 200,000th US delivery?

It's not official until the IRS certifies Tesla's submitted numbers.

And given their cash position, why didn't they ship cars to Canada or another country?

They did.

 

[scaesare]

If that's the case, why didn't they say that in the Q2 letter?

And why haven't they publicly stated when they made their 200,000th US delivery?

And given their cash position, why didn't they ship cars to Canada or another country?

I shall posit: You need to do your basic research before asking questions on an investor call... or when asking challenging questions on an interweb forum.

You seem to have not done so.

 

[wipster]

So, Mr Left is not Right -- again. Talk about lemons.

But is Ms. Long actually short? My brain hurts...

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

It's not official until the IRS certifies Tesla's submitted numbers.


They did.

Again, why hasn't Tesla made these claims? Why are we making them on their behalf?

A simple "We expect to make our 200,000th US delivery Q3" would help the stock and assuage Wall St concerns.

Did they comment on the 200k mark in Q1? Have they ever said that the plan was to stockpile inventory?

This is a major talking point for the shorts (and even a WSJ reporter). If Elon wants to deliver the "short burn of the century," shouldn't it have been easy to just kill this talking point?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I shall posit: You need to do your basic research before asking questions on an investor call... or when asking challenging questions on an interweb forum.

Wait, is that kind of like...
“The first rule of Book Club is: RTFB”

?

 

[Ulmo]

I think the huge 200,000th car question is a really big deal. It's a quarter billion dollars for the buyers (from all taxpayers), or fifty million dollars for Tesla (a month earlier than they would have had it). That's a difference so big that the difference number is almost as big as the bigger number.

Elon has been mum about it.

Elon likes to toot his own horn almost always.

Therefore, by logical deduction, I'm moving the probability of it being ... well, you see what I'm getting at.

But there is another side: taxpayers (most of us). That's why the outcome is not certain. We taxpayers might be mad. So they may be waiting to slide it under the rug somewhere ... but that is doubtful, because that's a HUGE rug, and most people would be able to see it.

How would it play if Elon said "we needed the $50,000,000 30 days sooner.": Not good.

The only plays I see are either defending the tax benefit and taking it or saying the tax benefit is really bad publicity and not a good thing for taxpayers and tax benefits always come with a stick: they cause something to happen that wouldn't have happened otherwise, interfering with what individuals (in this case a company) needs to do.

It's like a lose-lose proposition, one in which hiding the truth is most likely the bad choice. (I think they should have told us July 2 with the delivery numbers.) I was almost thinking it would be best if he called Donald Trump and asked Don for his opinion of what he should do. Don could easily spin it as pro-USA support, or more likely, an anti-tax thing. And it would leave Elon a bit off the hook there. And many mad buyers.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

A simple "We expect to make our 200,000th US delivery Q3" would help the stock and assuage Wall St concerns.

Did they comment on the 200k mark in Q1? Have they ever said that the plan was to stockpile inventory?

I remember an Elon comment relating to stock performance...my interpretation was and is that Elon Musk don’t care about the stock and assuaging Wall Street Concerns.

There was a comment earlier about helping customers if possible around the timing of good old #US200K. Hashtag Intentional.

 

[scaesare]

Again, why hasn't Tesla made these claims? Why are we making them on their behalf?

A simple "We expect to make our 200,000th US delivery Q3" would help the stock and assuage Wall St concerns.

Did they comment on the 200k mark in Q1? Have they ever said that the plan was to stockpile inventory?

This is a major talking point for the shorts (and even a WSJ reporter). If Elon wants to deliver the "short burn of the century," shouldn't it have been easy to just kill this talking point?

To paraphrase Elon in regards to pandering to analysts fixation on performance:

On edit: I knew I liked @SW2Fiddler ...

 

[AZRI11]

Again, I think you're looking at the wrong metric.

Wall St isn't going to care about a single week output. They aren't going to care about "capacity."

Wall St cares about results, and the results weren't great.

• They only delivered 18440 Model 3s, or 1420/week.
• They have a record number of cars in transit and admitted to logistics problems in places like Norway.
• S and X deliveries, which are supposed to be funding Model 3 CapEx, are down yoy.

The Q2 balance sheet and income statement are looking grim. Huge inventory resulting in lower cash and bad earnings.

That's why the "5000/week" goal is kinda weird. What is significant about being able to pump out 5000 in a week?

Question for Q2 call: why were deliveries below 1700/week? (This is what's tanking the stock price)

Wow, if all shorts think like you it's already game over. Tax rebate caused lower deliveries obviously.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Wow, if all shorts think like you it's already game over. Tax rebate caused lower deliveries obviously.

Can you show an instance where either Tesla or Elon said the plan was to stockpile inventory? Or when Tesla was planning their 200,000th US delivery?

If you're right, why didn't they say that in the statement?

I'm just saying that this is a strong FUD argument the shorts are making on Twitter, and legitimate reporters are asking about. InsideEVs is a pro Tesla blog, and they estimated that they passed the mark in Q2.

"Better get your car in Q3 or the tax rebate is gone!!!"

It should be so easy for Tesla to refute this. Elon could do it in a Tweet. Why haven't they?

 

[Remus]

If that's the case, why didn't they say that in the Q2 letter?

And why haven't they publicly stated when they made their 200,000th US delivery?

And given their cash position, why didn't they ship cars to Canada or another country?

I remember the mod told you not to repeat yourself?

 

[AZRI11]

Can you show an instance where either Tesla or Elon said the plan was to stockpile inventory? Or when Tesla was planning their 200,000th US delivery? Elon Musk on Twitter

If you're right, why didn't they say that in the statement?

I'm just saying that this is a strong FUD argument the shorts are making on Twitter, and legitimate reporters are asking about. InsideEVs is a pro Tesla blog, and they estimated that they passed the mark in Q2.

"Better get your car in Q3 or the tax rebate is gone!!!"

It should be so easy for Tesla to refute this. Elon could do it in a Tweet. Why haven't they?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[dc_h]

Can you show an instance where either Tesla or Elon said the plan was to stockpile inventory? Or when Tesla was planning their 200,000th US delivery?

If you're right, why didn't they say that in the statement?

I'm just saying that this is a strong FUD argument the shorts are making on Twitter, and legitimate reporters are asking about. InsideEVs is a pro Tesla blog, and they estimated that they passed the mark in Q2.

"Better get your car in Q3 or the tax rebate is gone!!!"

It should be so easy for Tesla to refute this. Elon could do it in a Tweet. Why haven't they?

I don’t think we all really know if they held under 200k, but it seems like the right move for Tesla and Tesla buyers.

As for announcing, it’s probably great ammo for haters, saying Tesla is gaming the system to screw taxpayers. Better to avoid the fight and quietly do what’s right for your customers.

 

[Remus]

I shall posit: You need to do your basic research before asking questions on an investor call... or when asking challenging questions on an interweb forum.

You seem to have not done so.

We should all be clear now he is not here to ask questions. This forum has become a place investors searching for information, he is here to spread false information.