TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Sudre]

Reading through Elon Musks Twitter engagements regarding shorts and parts of the media, i think it's been a mistake.

I was about to disagree with this until I realized I don't totally disagree. I think Musk is actually trying to get as many shorts to pile in as possible because he expects a huge short squeeze from it. He also does not feel he will need capital so it does not effect the company currently. I think he is purposely rousing shorts to rally. I don't know if that is a good idea so I can't disagree with your thoughts. I also think he is trying to make the coming legal battle somewhat public now so he can buy shares like he has been without certain entities going after him for buying with insider knowledge that was not public.

For the true longs it is either not relevant and/or gives them many low priced buying opportunities.
For swing traders and day traders it is a blessing for profits in all directions.
For shorts it is a false hope if Elon's predictions are true.

 

[Hogfighter]

Totally off post....thank you all for your well wishes. Many of you have been my friend for years, you just didn’t know it.

BTW, HNI at a 9.

 

[jhm]

 

[JRP3]

Reading through Elon Musks Twitter engagements regarding shorts and parts of the media, i think it's been a mistake.

Excellent. If the shorts think it's wrong that's a clear indicator it's right.

 

[Ugliest1]

I’ve read some places that the permit for the structure is listed as temporary and for 6 months.

Does anyone know if this is the case or not?

But, that's not really the point, is it? The point is, the "tent" is built to withstand extremes of cold, heat, wind, etc for a long time, and they've been used in many different industries with great success. Tesla may or may not use it temporarily, but the quality of the thing rivals solid buildings.

 

[SteveG3]

Excellent. If the shorts think it's wrong that's a clear indicator it's right.

bingo.

shortsplaining decoder of the comment you replied to:

the last thing we feel like seeing is Tesla/Elon/Longs going

from
wasting time getting tangled up in fending off false narratives we’ve pumped out

to
raising awareness about the game between some media and some with short positions by which these false narratives have flooded public dialog about Tesla and its products.

 

[kbM3]

I think there is a real possibility that Linette Lopez will soon be a full time free-lancer.

From prison?

 

[BrianZ]

I was about to disagree with this until I realized I don't totally disagree. I think Musk is actually trying to get as many shorts to pile in as possible because he expects a huge short squeeze from it. He also does not feel he will need capital so it does not effect the company currently. I think he is purposely rousing shorts to rally. I don't know if that is a good idea so I can't disagree with your thoughts. I also think he is trying to make the coming legal battle somewhat public now so he can buy shares like he has been without certain entities going after him for buying with insider knowledge that was not public.

For the true longs it is either not relevant and/or gives them many low priced buying opportunities.
For swing traders and day traders it is a blessing for profits in all directions.
For shorts it is a false hope if Elon's predictions are true.

I think you're onto something there.

From Fairfax (and countless other examples), we know that legal action against bad actors in the financial space is futile as the justice department is extremely corrupt when it comes to Wall Street (way too much money going around).

So what happens if you cannot rely on the justice system? Just take a look at how they settle things in crime groups like gangs and mobs. They take action into their own hands.

***pictures Elon with an AK47*** (no I'm kidding)

Nope, Elon is not gonna murder somebody like a mobster. BUT, the white collar equivalent of murdering someone would be to bankrupt them. Forgive the crudeness of these comparisons, but I do think that maybe the only way to stop these big bad actors like Chanos and others would be to simply bankrupt them.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

So what happens if you cannot rely on the justice system? Just take a look at how they settle things in crime groups like gangs and mobs. They take action into their own hands.

***pictures Elon with an AK47*** (no I'm kidding)

Nope, Elon is not gonna murder somebody like a mobster. BUT, the white collar equivalent of murdering someone would be to bankrupt them. Forgive the crudeness of these comparisons, but I do think that maybe the only way to stop these big bad actors like Chanos and others would be to simply bankrupt them.

That’s basically what Peter Thiel did to Gawker.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

This happened frequently at the end of 2012 and the first half of 2013 in the SF Bay Area. After that, it just became too common. I put in a reservation in Sept 2012 and got the car in Feb 2013 and still two of my neighbors and three of my coworkers (at the time, I worked on Sand Hill Road) beat me in getting the Model S. The car still got attention when we are in SoCal (Disneyland trips) up until 2015. There are a LOT fewer Teslas in LA region compared to SF Bay Area -- I guess when the cost of the car is less than 5% of the average home price, it's a lot easier to justify here. Also, since the release of the Model 3, most of the people around me that are more financially sensitive have become Tesla owners. My dad and several friends & coworkers have already taken delivery with many, many more coming soon (I know my brother and at least 5-6 more friends have just placed orders).

I think the trend starts here. When the Model 3 & Y start becoming readily available, other parts of the country will start to look more like the Bay Area. I always use this as a gauge of what will be coming to the rest of the country in the next 5-10 years.

So true.
Toronto today is SF Bay area from 2016.
Every market has similar trajectory with less or more aggressive adoption curve depending on economy, disposable income and practicality of EVs in the region (supercharger, winters etc...)

 

[SW2Fiddler]

those two have been talking to everyone in town about it. That’s the power of Tesla (and putting the hammer down).

That’s what I’m talking about. Butts in seats.

There is no honesty in estimating Demand in advance of Awareness.

 

[hacer]

...The idea can be tested. Won't the Moon eventually fall into the Earth? Barring, of course, passing through a field of dark energy or some such fudge factor. Not to troll dark matter or dark energy enthusiasts. That would attract dishonorable mention by the mods as OT....

Actually the moon is gradually getting further and further from Earth.

 

[johnnybgood888]

Reading through Elon Musks Twitter engagements regarding shorts and parts of the media, i think it's been a mistake. If you have facts to prove your allegiations, present them. If you are suspecting there is such a kind of connection, collect evidence and prepare yourself before you engage in such a discussion. There's a not-null chance such things backfire. Media people are influential and you probably don't want them to be your enemy, since they tend to stick together, because you know ... freedom of speech, being the fourth branch of power and such. You may also attract some of the false people. Yesterday was the first day i've seen people like Marc Cohodes and MuddyWaters-Research chime in on the discussion. Those are people have an awefull lot of experience shorting stocks and you usually want them, to not have your company on the radar. It seem's to be a common belief among these people, that CEOs downtalking shorts are doing so because the company is short-worthie and those CEOs know that the company is in trouble. I think you wouldn't :-/

If these people are as experienced as you say they are and not already have the most shorted and one of the highest profile company on their radar, they must be real incompetent.

Elon is a one man PR machine for Tesla, for better or worse. He has always done this his way, and it is not going to change. You may not agree with how he uses social media to fight back FUD or disseminate info, and it may even have negative consequences, but doing things this way is also one major reason he has as many die hard fans as he does. If Tesla was just another faceless corporation, you bears would probably have had an easier time bringing it down.

In any case, these back and forths with his detractors on social media are neither here nor there. At the end of the day, when they start making cars in big numbers and shows profits consistently, Elons twitter feed will be the only thing bears can criticize him on. My bet is that day is coming real soon.

 

[brian45011]

Sharyl Attkison refers to this sort of thing as an attempt to ”controversialize” a person or group making factual public statements that reveal the falsehood of narratives an interest group is trying to persuade the public about via a campaign placed in the media. (It’s, of course, not just about referring to folks saying constructive things about Tesla as “cult members” “fanboys”... many narratives about Elon fit this notion of attempting to “contraversialize” him... “welfare poster boy”, “Trumplike”, “thin skinned”, “libtard”, “billionaire elitist”, even some attempts at “misogynist”, “anti-semitic”)

Attkisson’s name may be familiar with people here from the US. For decades she was a network investigative journalist for CBS. She won 4 emmys and a Edward R Murrow award before leaving CBS because of the impact she believes concentrated wealth buying these campaigns had on restricting reporting at CBS and other media outlets.

Here is a couple of brief (10 minute) sample of Attkisson’s thoughts from a Ted Talk

Change the name! Capitol Redskins--Washington is a state.

 

[BrianZ]

That’s basically what Peter Thiel did to Gawker.

Not really. Gawker actually got sued and actually lost, and the resulting damages bankrupted the company. While that COULD happen, that's only taking out the intermediary. The real enemy is the hedge fund managers using nefarious methods to purposely bring down a company, and they will be punished by being bankrupted through the beauty of unlimited losses of shorting.

 

[brian45011]

Do American cars really have a large market in China anyway? I can imagine some of the more prestigious marques sell a number to the mega-moguls, but perhaps most of those are not American? Except for one brand.

Buicks everywhere we visited--but were told they were made in country.

 

[Intl Professor]

Actually the moon is gradually getting further and further from Earth.

Is that because its velocity is a bit higher than a stationary orbit?

 

[defc0n]

I think Musk is actually trying to get as many shorts to pile in as possible because he expects a huge short squeeze from it.

He's trying to get them to pile in by warning them that their positions are about to explode? I don't buy it. I still think he was very surprised to see the SP fall drastically after reporting Tesla hit 5k/wk, which influenced him going after the media.

FWIW, I'm still holding out for the slither of hope he'll report big news soon that will cause such a short explosion. But I don't think it will actually happen now (hope I'm wrong). Surely he wouldn't expect 5k/wk would have done that, though, hmm....

 

[Krugerrand]

That’s what I’m talking about. Butts in seats.

There is no honesty in estimating Demand in advance of Awareness.

Those two would buy a Tesla pickup in a heartbeat. I’m sure if it.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

He's trying to get them to pile in by warning them that their positions are about to explode? I don't buy it. I still think he was very surprised to see the SP fall drastically after reporting Tesla hit 5k/wk, which influenced him going after the media.

FWIW, I'm still holding out for the slither of hope he'll report big news soon that will cause such a short explosion. But I don't think it will actually happen now (hope I'm wrong). Surely he wouldn't expect 5k/wk would have done that, though, hmm....

I think we've been trying to psycho-analyze this for a week now and gotten absolutely nowhere. If there's one thing I've gleaned from this, it's that none of us have any idea what Elon is thinking at any given moment. But Elon is a human and he will make mistakes, so maybe tweeting about the "short burn of the century" will be remembered as one of those someday.