TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Wooloomooloo]

Hopefully the mods have the razor blades secured. This forum is about as depressed and negative as I've seen it. Can it get much worse? Bankwuptsy around the corner, despite actually doing what Elon said they would do? Usually this is a signal of a march to ATH.

I'll quote you as you were the last to post...

I got pointed here from the 'Ban the Shorts' thread after pointing out I got down-voted into oblivion on an Ars Technica thread about the June numbers. The writer said the share price was rising on the news and the "market was responding favorably". I made the mistake of pointing out the price rose on very small volumes and that actually the market's expectations had not been exceeded and the price was definitely going down (I work in Finance, in risk specifically). It was $350 at that time, and ended the week at just above $300.

I can't read 900 posts, but as I'm sure everyone knows when they stop to think about it, shorting equity stock is a speculative bet on the share price in the immediate future (stock borrows are short term) and not a bet on the long-term viability of a company. In fact most trading done today (in terms of pure volumes) are very short term bets on the price, regardless of whether they're long or short. Given prices fluctuate significantly irrespective of fundamentals (which change very slowly and are highly predictable) no one should interpret this as the company being 'under attack' or people 'hating Elon'. It's not personal, it's just people trying to make money albeit in a rather negative way. Another way to think about it is, if you're really investing for the long term and want TSLA, the shorts are actually doing you a favor by keeping the price low.

Personally I would never recommend 'shorting' any stock, because it's actually extremely risky given losses can be theoretically infinite (although they never are) and the same is true of put or covered put options. It's risky enough if you're a hedge fund, but utterly cretinous if you're a day trader.

Anyway, sorry for the waffle... here was I really wanted to say. Tesla's real financial health is more accurately reflected in their bond price, particularly the spread against treasuries. now I can tell you bond traders are not in the game of short term bets. All they care about is their dividend and initial investment. Problems in the bond market are a much better leading indicator of a company getting into trouble than equities.

With that in mind, it's worth knowing that Tesla's spread is large but not dire... you definitely would not want to bet your mot Making cars is difficult. Making lots of cars is very difficult. Making lots of cars that are completely different from anything else currently being made is horrendously hard. And doing all of that while a trillion dollars worth of existing companies are chasing you, well... you can't blame people for being skeptical, can you?

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Tesla is opening Model 3 online configurator to everyone

Asked in the other thread, but will also ask here...

What is a "reservation" now? If anyone can log on and start ordering their car, how do the 400k+ "reservations" still matter?

Twitter shorts are up-in-arms saying that this is proof $50k+ Model 3 supply is way above demand. How does this forum refute this?

 

[jelloslug]

Asked in the other thread, but will also ask here...

What is a "reservation" now? If anyone can log on and start ordering their car, how do the 400k+ "reservations" still matter?

Twitter shorts are up-in-arms saying that this is proof $50k+ Model 3 supply is way above demand. How does this forum refute this?

Two clicks on the Tesla site will answer your question.

 

[Tslynk67]

Asked in the other thread, but will also ask here...

What is a "reservation" now? If anyone can log on and start ordering their car, how do the 400k+ "reservations" still matter?

Seems obvious to me, you will be added to the reservation queue for your region. Of course this means that if you order the bare-bones, you're still going to wait somewhere between 6-12 months, if you pony-up for a top-spec performance model then you might get before any basic models are delivered.

It's a sign to me that Tesla are well on-top of the 5k run-rate and see a clear path to ramp it towards 10k without too much hassle.

 

[mongo]

Asked in the other thread, but will also ask here...

What is a "reservation" now? If anyone can log on and start ordering their car, how do the 400k+ "reservations" still matter?

ummm... it means people want to buy 400,000 cars...
Does any other vehicle manufacturer have a multi-k wait list? Or do they have millions in inventory sitting on dealer lots hoping to be purchased?

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Two clicks on the Tesla site will answer your question.

Yeah, so I went to the Tesla site, it asked me for my $1000 deposit. I paid (also did this in June. Deposit was refunded in just a few days).

It then immediately asked for a $2500 non-refundable deposit to start my order (which I obviously won't do).

Estimated time was delivery in September.

ummm... it means people want to buy 400,000 cars...
Does any other vehicle manufacturer have a multi-k wait list? Or do they have millions in inventory sitting on dealer lots hoping to be purchased?

But if anyone can log on and order their car right now, then what's the point of a wait list?

 

[mekberg]

But if anyone can log on and order their car right now, then what's the point of a wait list?

"Despite the change, sources told Electrek that Tesla is still going to prioritize the orders from reservation holders."

Tesla is opening Model 3 online configurator to everyone

 

[riverFox]

Asked in the other thread, but will also ask here...

What is a "reservation" now? If anyone can log on and start ordering their car, how do the 400k+ "reservations" still matter?

Twitter shorts are up-in-arms saying that this is proof $50k+ Model 3 supply is way above demand. How does this forum refute this?

The anti-selling for the model 3 is officially over. Bullish in my opinion. Means Tesla feels good about their production rate.

 

[Sancho]

One surprise in the China announcement may be the sheer size and scale of the factory. “Make No Small Plans” was coined for Burnham’s Chicago, but it applies with equal force to China and Musk.

The output from the new facility could be “really big numbers.”

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

"Despite the change, sources told Electrek that Tesla is still going to prioritize the orders from reservation holders."

Tesla is opening Model 3 online configurator to everyone

What amateur reporting... Why is it "sources" and not "Tesla"? Has Tesla made an official statement?

They just opened up the configurator to all reservation holders in Late June. Shouldn't that have spurred enough demand to keep them going throughout Q3?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

They just opened up the configurator to all reservation holders in Late June. Shouldn't that have spurred enough demand to keep them going throughout Q3?

They’re booking the rest of the year. Q3 is likely filled already & they’re filling out the remainder of Q4. We already know they’re going to deliver a few SR models in December, before making them in volume in Q1 (along w/ AWD and Performance for the rest of the world).

If you’re confused, it’s because you aren’t looking far enough ahead.

 

[Reciprocity]

"Despite the change, sources told Electrek that Tesla is still going to prioritize the orders from reservation holders."

Tesla is opening Model 3 online configurator to everyone

I smell fresh cash. 25M for every 10k orders. You need orders when your making 5k/w+ cars. Makes everything more efficient when they can continue to batch cars by color for many more quarters.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Tesla website now confirming that the $35k Model 3 won't get the full tax credit (barring law changes - good luck getting that through the Republican Congress). Standard battery is now shipping in 2019.

 

[bdy0627]

I'll quote you as you were the last to post...

I got pointed here from the 'Ban the Shorts' thread after pointing out I got down-voted into oblivion on an Ars Technica thread about the June numbers. The writer said the share price was rising on the news and the "market was responding favorably". I made the mistake of pointing out the price rose on very small volumes and that actually the market's expectations had not been exceeded and the price was definitely going down (I work in Finance, in risk specifically). It was $350 at that time, and ended the week at just above $300.

I can't read 900 posts, but as I'm sure everyone knows when they stop to think about it, shorting equity stock is a speculative bet on the share price in the immediate future (stock borrows are short term) and not a bet on the long-term viability of a company. In fact most trading done today (in terms of pure volumes) are very short term bets on the price, regardless of whether they're long or short. Given prices fluctuate significantly irrespective of fundamentals (which change very slowly and are highly predictable) no one should interpret this as the company being 'under attack' or people 'hating Elon'. It's not personal, it's just people trying to make money albeit in a rather negative way. Another way to think about it is, if you're really investing for the long term and want TSLA, the shorts are actually doing you a favor by keeping the price low.

Personally I would never recommend 'shorting' any stock, because it's actually extremely risky given losses can be theoretically infinite (although they never are) and the same is true of put or covered put options. It's risky enough if you're a hedge fund, but utterly cretinous if you're a day trader.

Anyway, sorry for the waffle... here was I really wanted to say. Tesla's real financial health is more accurately reflected in their bond price, particularly the spread against treasuries. now I can tell you bond traders are not in the game of short term bets. All they care about is their dividend and initial investment. Problems in the bond market are a much better leading indicator of a company getting into trouble than equities.

With that in mind, it's worth knowing that Tesla's spread is large but not dire... you definitely would not want to bet your mot Making cars is difficult. Making lots of cars is very difficult. Making lots of cars that are completely different from anything else currently being made is horrendously hard. And doing all of that while a trillion dollars worth of existing companies are chasing you, well... you can't blame people for being skeptical, can you?

Thanks for posting here. After seeing your posts on that Ban the Shorts thread, I suggested bringing your voice over here as a somewhat contrarian/rational perspective. It's probably not going to win the most likes, but I personally appreciate rational perspectives even when I may not agree. Your take on the deliveries news that the market response was not particularly impressive AH given the low volume, and that the stock was going to decline the next day, would have been helpful here. We had a few people providing some warnings about it, but we also had quite a few people seeing a squeeze in the making. Several people posted afterwards that they wished they had a better idea about that following the market's reaction. It seems obvious that the severity of the dip was surprising to most, but perhaps the stock dipping on the news shouldn't have been surprising to us.

Regarding the idea of nefarious shorts, If you haven't read the initial post from @jesselivenomore on the shorts vs Elon thread, I highly recommend it. There appear to be forces at work against TSLA that are not "just" betting it's going down. They are actively trying to get it there. Having said that, much of what you say about shorting undoubtedly applies to many who are shorting TSLA. I appreciate your perspective on Tesla's bonds and what that tells us regarding the market's assessment of Tesla.

 

[mekberg]

Tesla website now confirming that the $35k Model 3 won't get the full tax credit (barring law changes - good luck getting that through the Republican Congress). Standard battery is now shipping in 2019.

This was already known.

We will wait and see regarding tax credit. Republicans might reconsider since GM will also be affected by phase out. When you frame it as "Foreign car manufacturers will now have an advantage over American manufacturers (first movers)" congress might pay attention.

 

[Boomer19]

Tesla website now confirming that the $35k Model 3 won't get the full tax credit. Standard battery is now shipping in 2019.

that’s been like that since the june website reconfigure
so yes, that’s their estimate at this point.

i feel they will be able to deliver some standard range cars by end of year.

regardless, one argument is that the target audience for the base 35k model wouldn’t qualify for a full 7500 credit anyway

i wouldn’t assume this is 100% of those consumers, obviously. expect a blend of consumers at any configuration level. it will most likely not consist mainly of those in the highest tax brackets. i think it’ll be a more mid bracket consistency. they’ll still get 3750

 

[Boomer19]

Thanks for posting here. After seeing your posts on that Ban the Shorts thread, I suggested bringing your voice over here as a somewhat contrarian/rational perspective. It's probably not going to win the most likes, but I personally appreciate rational perspectives even when I may not agree. Your take on the deliveries news that the market response was not particularly impressive AH given the low volume, and that the stock was going to decline the next day, would have been helpful here. We had a few people providing some warnings about it, but we also had quite a few people seeing a squeeze in the making. Several people posted afterwards that they wished they had a better idea about that following the market's reaction. It seems obvious that the severity of the dip was surprising to most, but perhaps the stock dipping on the news shouldn't have been surprising to us.

Regarding the idea of nefarious shorts, If you haven't read the initial post from @jesselivenomore on the shorts vs Elon thread, I highly recommend it. There appear to be forces at work against TSLA that are not "just" betting it's going down. They are actively trying to get it there. Having said that, much of what you say about shorting undoubtedly applies to many who are shorting TSLA. I appreciate your perspective on Tesla's bonds and what that tells us regarding the market's assessment of Tesla.

i suggested as well. and thanks for the post woo ma loo

 

[Hogfighter]

I'll quote you as you were the last to post...

I got pointed here from the 'Ban the Shorts' thread after pointing out I got down-voted into oblivion on an Ars Technica thread about the June numbers. The writer said the share price was rising on the news and the "market was responding favorably". I made the mistake of pointing out the price rose on very small volumes and that actually the market's expectations had not been exceeded and the price was definitely going down (I work in Finance, in risk specifically). It was $350 at that time, and ended the week at just above $300.

I can't read 900 posts, but as I'm sure everyone knows when they stop to think about it, shorting equity stock is a speculative bet on the share price in the immediate future (stock borrows are short term) and not a bet on the long-term viability of a company. In fact most trading done today (in terms of pure volumes) are very short term bets on the price, regardless of whether they're long or short. Given prices fluctuate significantly irrespective of fundamentals (which change very slowly and are highly predictable) no one should interpret this as the company being 'under attack' or people 'hating Elon'. It's not personal, it's just people trying to make money albeit in a rather negative way. Another way to think about it is, if you're really investing for the long term and want TSLA, the shorts are actually doing you a favor by keeping the price low.

Personally I would never recommend 'shorting' any stock, because it's actually extremely risky given losses can be theoretically infinite (although they never are) and the same is true of put or covered put options. It's risky enough if you're a hedge fund, but utterly cretinous if you're a day trader.

Anyway, sorry for the waffle... here was I really wanted to say. Tesla's real financial health is more accurately reflected in their bond price, particularly the spread against treasuries. now I can tell you bond traders are not in the game of short term bets. All they care about is their dividend and initial investment. Problems in the bond market are a much better leading indicator of a company getting into trouble than equities.

With that in mind, it's worth knowing that Tesla's spread is large but not dire... you definitely would not want to bet your mot Making cars is difficult. Making lots of cars is very difficult. Making lots of cars that are completely different from anything else currently being made is horrendously hard. And doing all of that while a trillion dollars worth of existing companies are chasing you, well... you can't blame people for being skeptical, can you?

Some true, some not. There certainly are large numbers of shorts that truly hate Tesla, and you’d have to be obtuse to think that every article written by the usual suspects (LA Times, Business Insider, Rueters, NYT) are written without slant, and that very powerful entities ‘encourage’ said publications.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla website now confirming that the $35k Model 3 won't get the full tax credit (barring law changes - good luck getting that through the Republican Congress). Standard battery is now shipping in 2019.

I feel really bad for those making 100k+/Y and above that want a $35k car not getting $7,500 because that's about the minimum you would need to make to have a $7500 Tax bill after recent changes and higher standard deductions.

But its ok, because there will be another 6 months of $3,850. Not to mention that there is legislation to extend the credit. I dont think the Maga crowd are going to want BMW, Daimler and Toyota or even China to have better incentives than GM. I am sure Dems will want Green energy companies like Tesla to continue to get these incentives.

 

[Ugliest1]

I smell fresh cash. 25M for every 10k orders. You need orders when your making 5k/w+ cars. Makes everything more efficient when they can continue to batch cars by color for many more quarters.

Now that's a really good point, I think.