Good things come to those who wait and wait, and wait...
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Good things come to those who wait and wait, and wait...
if it is correct that Elon will be at an event with some government entity in Shanghai Tuesday, there’s now under 2.5 regular US market hours for any market participants to make large trades ahead of the event (it’s more challenging to do so in pre market or after hours trading). we do seem to be moving upward the past twenty minutes or so.
People keep saying Tuesday, as if it isn't already Tuesday in Shanghai (admittedly early in the morning there).
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Looks like this is based on Jack/EVTV's video/article from over a month ago, so probably nothing *new* here, just it being picked up somewhere else (which might mean more people learn of it).
Sudre
Active Member
I remember when the bond rating was reduced under the excuse that Tesla wasn’t making 5K cars. Funny how you won’t see that go back up. If anything Tesla will announce the China GF and the clickbait will start on the bankruptcy run again because Tesla can’t raise capital. Then the bond rating will be lowered again because Tesla is over extended. That is if they do announce full China government financial backing to build the GF shell. The bears will say Tesla can’t afford the robots and payroll.
Q2 will show more “cash burn”. That will be another bankruptcy parade along with Tesla being out of cash and needing to raise capital immediately. The cash on hand in the report will be “cooking the books” and steeling more money (down payments) from line waiters who will never receive their cars because..... you guessed it..... banckruptcy.
I am trying to figure out how they will spin the huge deliveries that are starting. I think it will be along the lines of half finished cars that need excessive service repairs hence more cash out the door and..... wait for it..... bankruptcy. Along with large cancelations because of bad press from unhappy customers.
So no. I am not expecting a short burn. The only thing that will causes a short burn is a large short going to prison or huge fines for deceptive practices and manipulation. That will never happen. They may catch a reports but per usual the publisher will just throw the reporter under the bus. Then there is the only other way. We find out there is a huge backer in China that is or has acquired 20% of the shares and a board seat. That does happen with out paperwork and filing ahead a time.
Q2 will show more “cash burn”. That will be another bankruptcy parade along with Tesla being out of cash and needing to raise capital immediately. The cash on hand in the report will be “cooking the books” and steeling more money (down payments) from line waiters who will never receive their cars because..... you guessed it..... banckruptcy.
I am trying to figure out how they will spin the huge deliveries that are starting. I think it will be along the lines of half finished cars that need excessive service repairs hence more cash out the door and..... wait for it..... bankruptcy. Along with large cancelations because of bad press from unhappy customers.
So no. I am not expecting a short burn. The only thing that will causes a short burn is a large short going to prison or huge fines for deceptive practices and manipulation. That will never happen. They may catch a reports but per usual the publisher will just throw the reporter under the bus. Then there is the only other way. We find out there is a huge backer in China that is or has acquired 20% of the shares and a board seat. That does happen with out paperwork and filing ahead a time.
erthquake
Active Member
Could be multiple announcements. Shanghai factory news Tuesday, tariff-related news on Wed/Thur.
Yeah they were able to do that once, but they won't be able to sustain it so the rating has to stay down.
Fantasy announcement: GF1 in Shanghai, fully financed by Panasonic and Tencent... Tesla except from trade tariffs as a goodwill gesture by Chinese government to encourage EV adoption and to show appreciation of Tesla's efforts in the country
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
What if they're building a GF with something like twice the capacity of the GF in Nevada, PLUS enough capacity to push out something like 10k+ M3's per week? (Not sure what demand in China for the M3 will be like).
Pretty sure Elon wants to build cars and batteries all in one location for future GFs.
Pretty sure Elon wants to build cars and batteries all in one location for future GFs.
Mader Levap
Member
Last time when short burn was supposed to happen, it took about year.
And well. I think it is possible Musk genuiely thought 5k/week would be enough.
And well. I think it is possible Musk genuiely thought 5k/week would be enough.
IIrc the 2nd part of your fantasy is already reality in that they already are allowing Tesla to manufacture in China without a partner (effectively a tax) and it sounds like the "tent" line in Fremont will be moved to China fairly soon so they can probably call it Made In China before the factory there is built. Regarding part 1 of your fantasy, what if it is partially financed by Tesla profits?Fantasy announcement... Tesla except from trade tariffs as a goodwill gesture by Chinese government to encourage EV adoption and to show appreciation of Tesla's efforts in the country
It is enough, 5,000 a week is where they start to make money on the cars. Now when that will be apparent to "the market" is another matter.
I just don’t see this “shot squeeze” happening. There would have to be some astronomic announcement. People are already expecting a China gigafactory and positive Q3. But in the short term we have a lot more pain coming, Q2 financials will be ugly
FirebirdAlpha
Member
It appears they failed to make 4000 in the first week of July. So are they making money yet?
I would like to have money while I'm still young enough to enjoy it.
The good news is that I'm younger than Elon is so if he makes it to Mars in his lifetime, barring any sudden illness or death I will probably make it there too.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Chinese government could finance the factory, as NY did for GF2. Job creation and economic boost would be reason enough.
dude, the factory was shut down.
Tesla Is Taking a Break After Hitting Model 3 Production Target Tesla Is Taking a Break After Hitting Model 3 Production Target
go play in traffic or something
FirebirdAlpha
Member
The big issue with "financing a factory" is that the financer sees no upside. As a result, they need risk to be minimized. They need to know that the loan will be repaid. The maximum return they can get is below 10%.
The two big risks for China are...
The two big risks for China are...
- Creditors would need to be certain that Tesla's US finances are sound (they aren't).
- Creditors would need to be certain that, when the factory was fully operational, demand would be there. Tesla already has competitors in China that are well ahead of them, so this is unknown.
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