Performance has been 2-4 months since the big changes at the end of June. My LR AWD configuration is due in 3-5 months (September - November).
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Performance has been 2-4 months since the big changes at the end of June. My LR AWD configuration is due in 3-5 months (September - November).
I wasn't aware that I had mentioned refinancing. Are you sure you're replying to the right person?
However, since you raise it, refinancing this debt would be meaningless or harmful. As you appear to appreciate, the debt is linked to various underlying income streams. While you could refinance with replacement debt of a similar maturity (likely at a higher rate due to increasing Treasury rates and Tesla's declining credit quality), it would usually be impossible to refinance for a longer maturity without extending the term of the underlying income stream.
I think you may mean replicate rather than refinance. If so, the ability depends on the rate of production of the underlying income streams. For example, it is likely to be difficult to do another auto-lease based ABS as S & X lease initiations are running at lower rates than before, there is no substantial inventory of leased cars (as there was for the previous ABS) and there is no leasing program for the Model 3. The solar streams/inventory are less visible to me.
Sorry if my response is a little dry and technical compared to your comment on this. As a recently retired investment banker who spent 30 years doing asset based finance I know that I can get a little boring on these subjects.
Last edited:
cnbc video doesn't seem to have comment section...tried to post it somewhere else but ran into other difficulties. I guess I need to be more proficient on media sites.
Majority of the comments in various sites on Lopez and her interview did not agree with her so it seemed most people already knew it was a hit piece.
It is always easier to time the market backward.....Any more theories out there now for Musk’s 3 week warning?It is increasingly likely I totally goofed trying to time & believe it.
If you look at it, we went from below 300 to high 360, even touched 370.
I saw a theorie back in may I think : someone was supposing that TSLA would reach ATH by end of june and illustrated that you could make a pile of money by buying june 380 calls at below 300 price at that this would lead to a gigantic return (can't remember the exact numbers).
So, I tought, hmmm might be good to buy lottery ticket
. I did try : bid was at 0.05 and price and ask was at 0.2. So I did tried 0.1 and 0.15 order for about 2000$ total worth for this trade. NEVER GOT EXECUTED. I didn't wanted to go to 0.2 because I sometimes get overly optimistic and get killed quickly on these trade.Now guess what, this time would have been THE time to chase that option to even 0.25 to make sure to execute.
Yes, I did checked the price when we were at the upper 360 : 5.50$....
So a good plan would have been to slowly, as the price increase, sell position to cover initial investment, then some profits and then let some run to see if we could have reached higher price (those of course would have fallen quickly).
In the end, if I would have chased that option to be sure to have it, I would be looking for 10-15X return depending on how I would have been cashing gains (maximum possible would have been a bit over 27x inintial investment).
But hey, we will see others opportunities, like selling Jan2019 400 at high and rolling a week ago to jan20 400
.... you know rolling stones : make sure that ''tiiiime is on my side, yes it is!''That makes me thinks about something : if there are an army of TMC member that bought stock and leaps because we hade the news before the news (and of course some confidence in Tesla team) that we would reach 5000/week AND sign a deal with China. wouldn't that lead to have brokers/banks/market makers to hedge to positions to the opposite and then..... lead to a undervalued stock at the time of official announcements?<------- Guys I would seriously be honored to have your thoughts on this 00:45 AM thought
Strange, mine also says Aug-Oct. But it used to say Jul-Sept. (Line waiter, existing owner.)
The more Tesla shares decline the more this thread goes off topic...
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Decline? We’re up $72 since April 2.
Am I the only one who is NOT ok with the moderator debating IN someone else's post?????? And then to add insult to the injury making an arithmetic mistake while doing it?
The income-stream-backed debt is practically irrelevant to solvency analysis of the company, unless there's a credit risk involved or an interest rate change. Why did you even mention it?
The context of the conversation was some idiot claiming that Tesla would have to "pay off" this debt with new income, which is simply outright wrong. That person had vastly overestimated the amount of debt which has to be paid off / refinanced in the next few months.
The term loan has to be refinanced because it's shorter-term than the solar leases which back it, and it will be. The others, well, they're already maturity-matched so they take care of themselves.
So you'll understand that the scaremongering about Tesla having to "pay off" loans which are already backed by defined income streams is ridiculous. Glad you agree with me.
I do financial analysis. The first thing you have to learn is that you can't blindly look at numbers, you actually have to dig into the details. Blindly quoting a "total debt nominally due before date X", mixing in debt backed by defined income streams and convertible bonds, is just not financial analysis. It's nonsense.
Last edited:
It's relevant when looking at cashflow. Having good operating cashflow is little good to you if you've preallocated a large portion of the cashflow to paying off limited recourse debt.
It's surprising because it didn't work that way in past. I'm sure you remember the 1k and >2k exit rate in Q4/2017 and Q1/2018 and that those were not sustainable average rates during the next 4-8 weeks. If Tesla keeps up that 5k rate this time, then it's different - which is kind of a surprise for some of us bears.
So what? Most of the criticism that has been written here for weeks is absolutely one-sided. It surely works the same way with positive media coverage, right? I can assure you that most bears feel a sudden urge to throw up, when there is yet another headline about testing "the Tesla $35,000 mass market vehicle". Can i see that car please? We currently have like the 4th wave of articles about a soon to be running factory in china. We have been bombarded with $4000 a share price targets on TV and 1 million cars in 2020 production goals. Would be nice if Tesla can do that, they'll need it for the autonomous TaaS-Fleet, that will be up and running 2-3 years from ... uh ... any point in the past since 2015. I got all that information from the negative media coverage, in case you asked yourself.
From a bearish perspective such stuff is bullish FUD, which is spread by the media without proper research. I'm sure those are classic hit pieces aiming to destroy that poor old Thanos chap, who has been accused to trade on insider information, which he has bought from Tesla employees or reporters. Since we have touched that topic anyway: Who has been sued for leaking internal data and mails to Electrek? Is Fred actually paying these people? How can you be sure he isn't? He refuses to state publicly, that he didn't pay Tesla employees to provide insider information, so he can buy more shares at the right time. Why is it, he went completely silent on that topic? Come on, i'm waiting for answer ...
Hey! No! Wait a second, before you bring those forks and torches. I never said, he did anything wrong. I'm only asking questions, like that one twitter guy with the 22 million followers.
Since nobody would ever accuse anybody of fraud or insider trading here, we may also want to discuss why Melissa Lee is still allowed to cover Tesla on CNBC. She's married to analyst Ben Kallo from Baird & Co. Now that's what i would call close ties. That analyst guy has been pushing his long agenda for years and Baird has been sued several times for unfair competition, violation against security trading rules and failing to disclose material information to their own customers. They sure seem to be quite shady. And there is hard internet evidence, that Mr. Kallo has been talking with Mr. Musk and Mrs. Lee repeatedly. Some people even claim, they've seen Mr. Kallo and Mrs. Lee dancing together on several occasions. We also know Mr. Musk has no problem to meet shady people. There are several pictures showing him right next to Elizabeth Holmes and we know she's a high level white collar criminal. That's some pretty shady stuff going on there. I demand answers! Why don't we gang up and find out, who's hiding behind that infamous @ElonMusk twitter account, find out where he or she lives and if Fred paid them?
Sorry, i got carried away a bit there.
Can we please forget the last paragraphs i wrote and get back to shaming that Lopez b.tch, since she's a paid shill and / or a bad reporter and has been saying bad things about Tesla publicly? Thanks.
Last edited:
Which is why, as I've said before, I look at incremental changes in cashflow. That's the only way to do the analysis. Since we don't know the terms of the leases *or* the lease-backed loans, making assumptions about them is going to hurt the accuracy of your model. We do, however, know that they're matched with each other (there are no balloon mortgages hidden in here), so by looking at changes in cashflow, you make sure the leases and lease-backed loans remain matched up.
Take the existing situation with the company as a baseline. Add the revenue from additional Model 3 and subtract the costs from additional Model 3; (likewise for a Powerwall/Powerpack/Solar Roof rampup if any); subtract the reductions in CapEx if any; you get the incremental cashflow. See whether this, plus the cash on hand, pays off the non-recourse debt which has to be paid off.
(P.S. It definitely pays off everything except possibly the March convertibles. Those, we have discussed previously.)
Last edited:
Wooloomooloo
Member
Nice if you bought on April 2nd. What if you bought on June 1st 2017?
The stock is going to bobble around in the low - mid $300's until the next earnings report on Aug 1st and unless there are any surprises (meaning unless Telsa fails to meet targets, which we already know they won't) nothing much will change even then. No one thinks Tesla is going to miss its Q2 targets and no one thinks they're going to knock it out of the park either.
The volatility is perfect for day traders and algos not for anyone else. If you're in it for the payoff in 10 years (assuming you believe that's coming), don't worry about it, just buy more while it's at this plateau. If Tesla are going to get into short term trouble, it's going to show in Q1/Q2 next year, not before then barring a major incident.
From the financial ratio beauty contest over the next couple of quarters, it sure won't hurt that Tesla isn't yet providing Model 3 leases.
It's good to have @neroden back to posting.
It's good to have @neroden back to posting.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Doug Ford Cancels Electric Car Rebate So He Can Lower Gas Prices
Perhaps part of the reason for yesterday's SP drop:
Yesterday Ontario Canada cut the $14k (all figures CAD$) EV rebate to all M3 buyers. Unlike the US, this was not a tax reduction, but a rebate in full obtained by everyone, and the move affects all EVs, not just Tesla.
Since Tesla makes a compelling car in style, performance, long range charging & quality, they can compete on price, I really don't see it being an issue. I would be concerned with the other OEM (GM Bolt and Nissan Leaf) that are pudgy city runabouts that cannot compete on this metrics and now also lost their $14k rebate so cannot compete on price either.
Perhaps part of the reason for yesterday's SP drop:
Yesterday Ontario Canada cut the $14k (all figures CAD$) EV rebate to all M3 buyers. Unlike the US, this was not a tax reduction, but a rebate in full obtained by everyone, and the move affects all EVs, not just Tesla.
Since Tesla makes a compelling car in style, performance, long range charging & quality, they can compete on price, I really don't see it being an issue. I would be concerned with the other OEM (GM Bolt and Nissan Leaf) that are pudgy city runabouts that cannot compete on this metrics and now also lost their $14k rebate so cannot compete on price either.
Last edited:
Something Tesla energy related was my original theory anyway. That’s the only thing I could think of that would be unexpected for most investors / short sellers since the focus has been in the model 3.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
