TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Observation. What happened to this TMC forum thread? I can't keep up with it any more due to volume, even after the split. 90% of the posts are dry. I've resorted to reading only the posts that have more than five comments and skipping the rest. Many of our proficient posters have left this forum as their posts get drowned out in a matter of minutes.
Mods. I have a great idea. Is it possible to limit posters to one post per day on this thread....cheese louise, I just broke my own rule.

 

[Lessmog]

Maybe slightly off topic and about a different thread -- but one that has been mentioned here before (Jesse's) :

Elon Musk‏Verifierat konto @elonmusk 3 timför 3 timmar sedan

Interesting read

Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

 

[Mich]

Observation. What happened to this TMC forum thread? I can't keep up with it any more due to volume, even after the split. 90% of the posts are dry. I've resorted to reading only the posts that have more than five comments and skipping the rest. Many of our proficient posters have left this forum as their posts get drowned out in a matter of minutes.
Mods. I have a great idea. Is it possible to limit posters to one post per day on this thread....cheese louise, I just broke my own rule.

I think there is no real understanding of the separation of the General and Market action thread any more. Or at least I don't see it any more and more and more people cross post.

 

[kbM3]

Here is my theory (pure speculation):
Elon may have known that some of the major investors (such as Ron Baron and Tencent) were planning to further increase their holdings once Tesla can demonstrate 5k/week M3 production. He figured they would not jump right away on 1st of July due to the Holiday-week, but he expected them to start putting on a major buying pressure driving the stock up from past Monday (9th), hence the timing in his tweets. However, the investors knew that Q2 results will look really bad and the Shorts will use that to drive the stock lower, so they decided to wait another 3 weeks and start accumulating at a more favorable price. So now Elon's prediction turns into typical time-miss by a factor of 2 and we have to endure some more ups and downs and sideway moves.

If I were a major investor planning to increase holdings, I would not like Elon making comments before hand that might encourage shorts to quit and longs to buy, by speculating that a short burn of the century is coming. This might make my acquisition price higher.

from 1 month ago
"Tesla has ‘about 11,000’ energy storage projects underway in Puerto Rico, says Elon Musk"
an "oh, by the way" update we scaled up from a teeny tiny in Samoa on island of Ta'u, and then Kaua'i, next that VPP in SW Australia w/50,000 houses (ongoing) and now island of Puerto Rico,....and what is North America, but a larger island..... (its a theory and you asked)

Elon stated that total Energy deployments goal is only 1 GWh (or maybe $100M profit) this next year.

To me a "short burn of the century" that is bigger than the VW short squeeze would require one of two things:
1) Some reduction in available shares and an upward price pressure from some announcement, such that there are not enough available shares for shorts to buy during a squeeze, even if a lot of longs sell on the way up.

Or
2) Some huge tech advancement that makes the market decide Tesla is now worth $150B or more.

Unless someone can think of another.

 

[defc0n]

If I were a major investor planning to increase holdings, I would not like Elon making comments before hand that might encourage shorts to quit and longs to buy, by speculating that a short burn of the century is coming. This might make my acquisition price higher.



Elon stated that total Energy deployments goal is only 1 GWh (or maybe $100M profit) this next year.

To me a "short burn of the century" that is bigger than the VW short squeeze would require one of two things:
1) Some reduction in available shares and a upward price pressure from some announcement, such that there are not enough available shares for shorts to buy during a squeeze, even if a lot of longs sell on the way up.

Or
2) Some huge tech advancement that makes the market decide Tesla is not worth $150B or more.

Unless someone can think of another.

What do you feel is the likelihood of my now biggest worry: Musk misjudged how effective announcing a 5k/wk rate + Chinese factory agreement would be? I personally don't feel those news would have caused a "short burn of the century", and I'd like to give Elon the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't think that either. In fact, that wouldn't make any sense whatsoever, so it would have to be something else.

Sorry to all that this has been bothering me for the past few weeks now and I can't get over it/stop bringing it up, but I feel (and am hopeful) that it may still be very important soon.

 

[Sancho]

I’ve been following this board obsessively since its inception.

I’ve been following Musk obsessively since he became involved with Tesla (I became hooked by the very early Tesla blog posts, years before the first car was produced).

With Musk’s tweet of this board this morning, these two obsessions are now merged. Thst’s more than a little mind blowing.

We are now part of the story. But that was inevitable, since Musk is about a mission, and so are most of us. Profit is important, but it’s a means to an end.

This mission will continue for years. We are no longer just along for the ride; our hands are on the steering wheel.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Moved to general discussion.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Any thoughts on why Tesla did not use a conventional registration for the bonds? Was a secret angel investor already lined up?

Yes, I wondered about that too. As I said before I think these unregistered bonds have come back to bite Tesla. Since they are still restricted, I think they are now being sold at a discount to what registered bonds would be sold at. Ie, the effect is that it appears that Tesla bond financing is expensive, when the opposite might be true. Maybe that’s why we got our CFO back...

and speaking of raw sewage...
Tesla factory workers reportedly drank Red Bull, walked through raw sewage to meet Model 3 quotas

So stupid. This could very well be that a toilet overflowed and a person stepped in the toilet water....

 

[neroden]

Your questions belong in "general discussion", gtrplyr

 

[gtrplyr1]

Your questions belong in "general discussion", gtrplyr

my apologies ... dealing with jet lag and I've been awake since 3am Pacific time .... moved.

 

[ggr]

Some moderator notes:
1. @schonelucht has convinced me that the original doxxing post is, indeed, against the rules. There's been so much quoting and discussion about it that I couldn't clean it up if I tried, but as a matter of principal I will delete the original post.
2. I shouldn't have edited my comment into another person's posting. The egregious calculation error was mine, not his. I apologize to @FirebirdAlpha for that particular mistake.
--ggr

 

[JRP3]

Maybe we need a doxxing thread.

Mod: done. --ggr.

 

[ggr]

Mod: I thought it was implied above, but I would prefer no more discussion about or outright doxxing in this thread. Again, too much work to move the existing posts, but any new ones from here on will get moved to a new thread. --ggr

 

[Unpilot]

So it seems the analysis that the SP will more or less stay in a narrow range is playing out.

The short burn will not happen on regular people time. Unless there is some big news soon.

With Tesla you never know.

 

[oneday]

So it seems the analysis that the SP will more or less stay in a narrow range is playing out.

The short burn will not happen on regular people time. Unless there is some big news soon.

With Tesla you never know.

I think one thing holding back the short squeeze is that all the not-a-flamethrowers have not be delivered yet. Unfortunately, another case of over promise and under deliver.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Source?

You're saying a suppliers are willing to wait as long as it takes for the car to be built/delivered? Man, I need to find some new suppliers for my company...

Most accounts payable are due in 30-90 days after receiving the invoice.

So let’s say you’re invoiced 30 days after parts are delivered. You think it takes more than 40 - 100 days to build a Model 3 and deliver it to a customer? I don’t think that’s anywhere close to true.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

The short burn will not happen on regular people time. Unless there is some big news soon.

With Tesla you never know.

The only "big news" that burns the shorts is a large (3B+) capital raise via debt.

Tesla already has a long backlog of capitally intense projects:

• Solar Roof
• Model Y
• Semi
• Pickup Truck
• 10k Model 3s per week

Q2 results are going to be ugly. The question is "How ugly?" Are they suffering a liquidity crisis?

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Anyone else have their estimated delivery for a performance model 3 moved up a month today? It was showing Sep - Nov. Now, it's showing Aug - Oct.

No, mine is still showing Aug - Oct which it has done for a month.

 

[mongo]

Source?

You're saying a suppliers are willing to wait as long as it takes for the car to be built/delivered? Man, I need to find some new suppliers for my company...

Most accounts payable are due in 30-90 days after receiving the invoice.

-----------

My point was that net working capital is the metric: current assets (includes inventory, cash) - current liabilities (includes debt payments, obligations)

So you are claiming Tesla is planning on having more than 46 - 76 days of inventory on hand? (Assuming 60-90 day terms and a 14 day build/ delivery timing).

Even if they had overhang, they only pay for that once, and then the vehicle sales lead part payments on the replacement parts.

Inventory is a different beast for a manufacturing company than a resale company...

 

[defc0n]

310 support actually did its job today