TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Matias]

There are a total of zero enhanced autopilot features released to date. Ap2 had only recently come into parity with ap1. Nice try though.

Please read Tesla’s own words in that page “Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software has begun rolling out ”

 

[elasalle]

I don't know for sure what InsideEV will do, but it's possible if Tesla hasn't announced it by tomorrow already, InsideEV would leave Tesla #s blank until the official delivery report comes out.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

March 2018 EV SALES will be reported on Tuesday, April 3, 2018, beginning with the Chevrolet Bolt/Volt sales and Nissan LEAF sales at 6:30-7:30 AM PT (9:30-10:30 AM ET), and continuing with Ford and BMW’s plug-in data on the afternoon of Wednesday, April 4, 2018.

Every month InsideEVs tracks all the plug-in EV sales for the United States by automaker and brand. Below, readers can find all the historical EV sales charts for the “current generation” of electric vehicles, as well as a synopsis of the current month’s sales happenings by specific EV below the charts.

Edit: Your're correct. TSLA might be left blank.

 

[1208]

They have their own ways of accurately estimating the Tesla sales. They are usually quite close to the numbers in the end.

Are we talking facebook style own ways?

On another note, there are rumors that what has been revealed about facebook is going to be revealed about google, amazon and twitter. Not sure how this will effect TSLA if it turns out to be true.

 

[Reciprocity]

Please read Tesla’s own words in that page “Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software has begun rolling out ”

Yeah, but like.. it hasnt begun. So yeah. If you owned a Tesla with AP2 hardware you would know that.

To be clear. When you input a location in your Nav and you engage autopilot. You will miss your exit if you dont disengage autopilot and take the exit. So even if you are confused about what it will and will not do, you are taught through experience really quickly. There are ways to trick it into taking an exit, but it takes some planning and effort and actions by the driver. So even if you are dense as a block of concrete and think that the roll out has begun, whatever that means, you learn pretty quickly that the functionality you are talking has not rolled out yet. That and you could read the manual.

That is meaningless int he case of this accident as its clear that they guy knew what did and did not work and he knew that area was problematic, and yet he still took his eyes off the road. Even with EAP features rolled out, you will still need to keep your eyes on the road. Period.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Bloomberg modelers calling a 2200/wk burst rate, and 1190/wk pre-burst rate, and predicts that Tesla can't sustain burst rate.

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) | Twitter

 

[SteveG3]

The thing is that it is hard to argue against the need for some cash later this year, since it is Moody's questioning the cash position, not just some random "hedge fund manager" who manages his own 401k. There is a lot of hyperbole coming from those corners, but the need for a cash raise isn't just coming from the shrill voices only, but from the calm, thoughtful ones too (Moody's).

Yes, Moody’s has a reputation

As I wrote last week in post #5586 in this thread, after watching an interview of the analyst behind Moody’s downgrade, I found the Moody’s view of Tesla quite curious and not convincing at all,

Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

What’s more,

Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis - Wikipedia

 

[Rarity]

I expected to come in to the office and see that all of my shares had been lent out and the interest rate sky high. But basically no change since Friday: most of my shares lent out and interest rate paid of 0.75%.

So there is probably still a good bit of rope available to the short sellers.

Interest rate paid has now creeped up to 0.875%.

 

[Reciprocity]

Bloomberg modelers calling a 2200/wk burst rate, and 1190/wk pre-burst rate, and predicts that Tesla can't sustain burst rate.

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) | Twitter

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If there is one thing I have learned, its that this guy has 0 credibility when it comes to modeling Tesla's deliveries. We have a written document from a Tesla executive saying that they where at 200+/day before the burst. That is closer to 1500. This guys model assumes they will shut down the model 3 line every quarter I guess. I think you are right that they cannot sustain it if the burst was one day, but if you can burst for 7 days, then I see no reason why that would be something that cannot be continued. It depends a lot on what kind of herculean effort it took to burst. Did they have to stockpile battery packs and queue up parts because there are still bottleneck issues with pack assembly and the conveyance system? This is why the length of burst is critical. It would work to show how repeatable it is. They should give some color on the rate going forward into Q2.

 

[Matias]

Yeah, but like.. it hasnt begun. So yeah. If you owned a Tesla with AP2 hardware you would know that.

To be clear. When you input a location in your Nav and you engage autopilot. You will miss your exit if you dont disengage autopilot and take the exit. So even if you are confused about what it will and will not do, you are taught through experience really quickly. There are ways to trick it into taking an exit, but it takes some planning and effort and actions by the driver. So even if you are dense as a block of concrete and think that the roll out has begun, whatever that means, you learn pretty quickly that the functionality you are talking has not rolled out yet. That and you could read the manual.

That is meaningless int he case of this accident as its clear that they guy knew what did and did not work and he knew that area was problematic, and yet he still took his eyes off the road. Even with EAP features rolled out, you will still need to keep your eyes on the road. Period.

So you’re saying Tesla is lying and a customer who doesn’t know it is dumb?

 

[neroden]

I believe we're in a bear market. All stocks have been dropping. Apparently something triggered the momentum-bots to sell, and they're selling.

I'm barely leveraged (some long-dated short puts), I have the cash I need for the next year, and I believe all my investments including TSLA are going to do better than the bear market in the one-year horizon, so I'm not worried about it; I'm just going to sit tight.

In Tesla-specific terms, my view is unchanged since December. They have to get up to volume, which means ~3000/week or ~4000/week Model 3s produced, by sometime in the third quarter, so that they can show profits in the fourth quarter (and especially the third quarter), in order to avoid substantial dilution in 2019.

There is some evidence that there's a very aggressive bear raid going on on TSLA on top of the general bear market, which would make sense; it's basically their last chance, since if/when Tesla shows high model 3 production and actual profits, they'll have to give up.

 

[Reciprocity]

I believe we're in a bear market. All stocks have been dropping. Apparently something triggered the momentum-bots to sell, and they're selling.

I'm barely leveraged (some long-dated short puts), I have the cash I need for the next year, and I believe all my investments including TSLA are going to do better than the bear market in the one-year horizon, so I'm not worried about it; I'm just going to sit tight.

In Tesla-specific terms, my view is unchanged since December. They have to get up to volume, which means ~3000/week or ~4000/week Model 3s produced, by sometime in the third quarter, so that they can show profits in the fourth quarter (and especially the third quarter), in order to avoid substantial dilution in 2019.

There is some evidence that there's a very aggressive bear raid going on on TSLA on top of the general bear market, which would make sense; it's basically their last chance, since if/when Tesla shows high model 3 production and actual profits, they'll have to give up.

NEO IS BACK! I had feared the worst. I though maybe Exxon finally got you.

 

[SteveG3]

I believe we're in a bear market. All stocks have been dropping. Apparently something triggered the momentum-bots to sell, and they're selling.

I'm barely leveraged (some long-dated short puts), I have the cash I need for the next year, and I believe all my investments including TSLA are going to do better than the bear market in the one-year horizon, so I'm not worried about it; I'm just going to sit tight.

In Tesla-specific terms, my view is unchanged since December. They have to get up to volume, which means ~3000/week or ~4000/week Model 3s produced, by sometime in the third quarter, so that they can show profits in the fourth quarter (and especially the third quarter), in order to avoid substantial dilution in 2019.

There is some evidence that there's a very aggressive bear raid going on on TSLA on top of the general bear market, which would make sense; it's basically their last chance, since if/when Tesla shows high model 3 production and actual profits, they'll have to give up.

welcome back, missed you Neroden

 

[Reciprocity]

So you’re saying Tesla is lying and a customer who doesn’t know it is dumb?

Yes, we are all dumb. But apparently im smart enough to watch the road.

 

[neroden]

NEO IS BACK! I had feared the worst. I though maybe Exxon finally got you.

Serious problems with my home construction project, issues with Tesla Service (...mostly settled now), problems with my broker (settled now), doing 2017 taxes (done), dealing with relapses in chronic illnesses (getting better again)... been a tough few months. Now that things start to stabilize, woo, a bear market

 

[Crowded Mind]

Serious problems with my home construction project, issues with Tesla Service (...mostly settled now), problems with my broker (settled now), doing 2017 taxes (done), dealing with relapses in chronic illnesses (getting better again)... been a tough few months. Now that things start to stabilize, woo, a bear market

Sorry to hear of your problems but glad to know the non-financial portions are improving and happy to hear your perspectives again.

 

[AudubonB]

HELLO....

We have just made our first additions to TSLA since (read on) -

Bought in at $247.77 net, picking up a fair chunk in that we added to our positions by 16%.

The last time we added any Tesla was Sept 16, 2016, when we increased holdings by about 30% with that once-in-a-lifetime "free" arbitrage: buying SCTY at under $17 to give us TSLA at $155 - at a time the stock was about $250.

 

[sundaymorning]

If the burst rate quoted by Bloomberg 2200/ week is true, and sustained for 3 days exiting March, then I think that is a very positive sign when compared to last Q’s burst rate.

Although this ramp isn’t as vertical as I would like, it’s surely headed in the right direction, especially when compared to S/X ramp. We are already above 1,200/ week and getting closer to the magical number 5000/ week. If anything, Tesla is showing us that the bottlenecks are resolvable.

 

[seabie]

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-making-2...source=jalopnik_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

 

[Reciprocity]

If the burst rate quoted by Bloomberg 2200/ week is true, and sustained for 3 days exiting March, then I think that is a very positive sign when compared to last Q’s burst rate.

Although this ramp isn’t as vertical as I would like, it’s surely headed in the right direction, especially when compared to S/X ramp. We are already above 1,200/ week and getting closer to the magical number 5000/ week. If anything, Tesla is showing us that the bottlenecks are resolvable.

At this point, 3 day burst rates will only justify the drop and be seen as some kind trick. It was already seen as a goofy trick and mocked last quarter. I would hope that the timing of the email leak, which the email was dated March 23rd, means that they have a sustained 2200+ for the last 7 days. Even if they dont maintain that level starting today going forward. For example here would be the statements:

1) "Manufactured 320 cars per day for the last 3 days,, which equates to about 2240 car burst rate. A total of 11,000 cars where manufactured in the quarter and we believe we can build 5000/w by the end of Q2." ( which adds up to way less 1000/day, which would stink.)

vs

2) "Manufactured 2240 cars in the last 7 production days of the quarter and over 11,000 for the entire quarter. We are still on pace to build 5000/w by the end Q2."

I believe #1 is possible based on the timing of the email which called for over 300/d, when they were already building around north of 200/d or 1500/w. I dont think this would be as big of an issue if they hadnt already pushed this goal back 6 months. This is make or break as depicted in the stock price today. People are selling in part because of the Autopilot issues, but mostly because they dont believe Tesla will hit the goal which keeps getting pushed back. They fear it will be pushed back again so they are bailing. I could be wrong, but it seems very clear.

Edit: Well there you go:

In the email, sent at the perfectly normal email time of 3:01 a.m. PDT on a Monday, Musk said it has been “extremely difficult” to pass the 2,000 vehicle per week rate for the Model 3, “but we are finally here.”

“If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number over a seven day period!” Musk wrote in the email, obtained by Jalopnik.

Now I wonder what Comfortably means.

 

[sundaymorning]

According to an email sent by Elon, Tesla has been producing 2,000/ week. He also stated that “If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number over a seven day period!” Musk wrote in the email, obtained by Jalopnik.

Tesla Making 2,000 Model 3s Per Week, Musk Says, Missing Target For First Quarter

Sustaining burst rate for 7 days is exactly what we can hope for. With that being said, let’s hope todays production goes well and we get an update tomorrow.