TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

This ought to speed the path to 10,000 Model 3’s per week.

The internet just crowdfunded billionaire Elon Musk a new couch

 

[sundaymorning]

Remember longs, shorts are absolutely blindsided by the China news today. It’s bigger than any of us could have imagined happening this year. Absolutely stunning!! This is a country locked and ready to adopt EVs, 1.3 billion people... and they are at the forefront of alternative energy.

 

[Richgoogol]

This ought to speed the path to 10,000 Model 3’s per week.

The internet just crowdfunded billionaire Elon Musk a new couch

I just cannot wrap my head around why anyone would want to bet against Elon. Anything even remotely involves his name turns into profit or sells out or gets completed. Whether it's late for a few days/months/years, he gets the job done period. But hey, if you have money to throw away, be my guest.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think timing for this should be:

1. Wait until Model 3 is showing profits later this year.
2. Reveal Model Y shortly thereafter.
3. Raise capital for Y / China factory shortly thereafter.

Stock price will look real pretty at that point.

IMO they should announce the plan for China factory during step 2.

 

[Time]

Oh good. Red on a +2% Nasdaq day.

Just wait till the market does it slow mid-day fade. We'll be down $10 in no time.

Share price being where it was 4 years ago is unacceptable given the risk shareholders take being invested in this name IMO. New strong buyers won't touch this thing.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Any last words before we turn green shorts? Consider this a warning, don't let this hyperloop hit you cuz it's gonna hurt.

. I swear the shorts watch this forum to dump when we start feeling good.

 

[jhm]

The technical name for the S-curve is the Logistic function:

Here is a rough model with some comparisons to known info. It puts end of June at ~4600/wk (rate column is the S-curve model), end of April at ~3k/wk, and around Q1ER in early May we could be closing in on 3500/wk, and Q2 (4/1 - 6/24 weeks) at over 43k.

View attachment 293798

Hopefully, Tesla's logistic curve does not have L=5000, but rather L=10,000/wk and midpoint x_0 = June 30, 2018.

Here's what that would look like out through Q1 2019:

         Date Prod
1  2018-03-30 2000
2  2018-04-06 2176
3  2018-04-13 2363
4  2018-04-20 2561
5  2018-04-27 2769
6  2018-05-04 2988
7  2018-05-11 3216
8  2018-05-18 3453
9  2018-05-25 3698
10 2018-06-01 3949
11 2018-06-08 4207
12 2018-06-15 4469
13 2018-06-22 4734
14 2018-06-29 5000
15 2018-07-06 5266
16 2018-07-13 5531
17 2018-07-20 5793
18 2018-07-27 6051
19 2018-08-03 6302
20 2018-08-10 6547
21 2018-08-17 6784
22 2018-08-24 7012
23 2018-08-31 7231
24 2018-09-07 7439
25 2018-09-14 7637
26 2018-09-21 7824
27 2018-09-28 8000
28 2018-10-05 8165
29 2018-10-12 8320
30 2018-10-19 8463
31 2018-10-26 8597
32 2018-11-02 8721
33 2018-11-09 8835
34 2018-11-16 8940
35 2018-11-23 9037
36 2018-11-30 9126
37 2018-12-07 9208
38 2018-12-14 9282
39 2018-12-21 9350
40 2018-12-28 9412
41 2019-01-04 9468
42 2019-01-11 9519
43 2019-01-18 9566
44 2019-01-25 9608
45 2019-02-01 9646
46 2019-02-08 9681
47 2019-02-15 9712
48 2019-02-22 9741
49 2019-03-01 9766
50 2019-03-08 9789
51 2019-03-15 9810
52 2019-03-22 9829
53 2019-03-29 9846

 

[YasB]

I swear the shorts watch this forum to dump when we start feeling good.

*lurks in the shadows ready to short for another billion or so*

 

[bdy0627]

Oh good. Red on a +2% Nasdaq day.

Just wait till the market does it slow mid-day fade. We'll be down $10 in no time.

Share price being where it was 4 years ago is unacceptable given the risk shareholders take being invested in this name IMO. New strong buyers won't touch this thing.

This is why shorts attack this stock when they think it is vulnerable. By demoralizing the enemy and causing longs to flee, they make more money. It's good to be diversified so that your account grows when the market is up nicely like today, regardless of what the shorts are able to pull off against TSLA. It makes it much easier to take these kinds of days in stride. I've always done the best with TSLA by adding when it dips hard, like two weeks ago.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Hopefully, Tesla's logistic curve does not have L=5000, but rather L=10,000/wk and midpoint x_0 = June 30, 2018.

I thought about modeling 2 separate S-curves, one from 0 to 5k, followed by 5k to 10k. But I didn't want to spend too much time on things that I really have no control over. Also after Tesla reaching 5k/wk, I might be too busy counting my cap gains to worry about additional M3 ramp .

 

[bdy0627]

I see Sniper is predicting cloud bottom at $284 will provide firm support as it did this morning. For those with TA experience, what's providing such firm support there now? In the past the stock has dropped well below the cloud. Why would it provide such firm support now?

 

[Richard007]

Added 55 shares total today. $288.xx, $288.xx, $299.xx.

Waiting to see if we go lower and will load up more on my way to 1K shares! (now 663).

This is such a great opportunity.

 

[adiggs]

View attachment 294561

Think about this from the broker's point of view. If there are people willing to pay ~10% to borrow shares, wouldn't you want to help them out by finding all of the shares you can to lend them?

You've got to have a lot of conviction in your position (or a lot of money to shovel into the furnace), to pay a 10% interest fee on the position to establish and maintain it. Beyond the margin capital you also need to keep on hand in case of a bad move against you.


I think it was two years ago, summer, when the interest rate I was receiving for lending my shares touched 14% for a couple of days. And to think I thought I was never going to see that again

 

[Richard007]

gf.me/u/h3pkdx Donated to couch fund and suggested they install a shower with extra money!

 

[Curt Renz]

Fox Business Network - today with Tesla discussion beginning at 1:28 minute-mark:

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Oh good. Red on a +2% Nasdaq day.

Just wait till the market does it slow mid-day fade. We'll be down $10 in no time.

Share price being where it was 4 years ago is unacceptable given the risk shareholders take being invested in this name IMO. New strong buyers won't touch this thing.

I think you meant to post that on Seeking Alpha. You're at Tesla Motors Club.

You're wearing a Man U shirt at Anfield.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Fox Business Network - today with Tesla discussion beginning at 1:28 minute mark:

Thanks for posting. Its shocking to hear someone talk positive about Tesla and I wouldn't say he was overly bullish but just hearing anything positive makes me perk up.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I see Sniper is predicting cloud bottom at $284 will provide firm support as it did this morning. For those with TA experience, what's providing such firm support there now? In the past the stock has dropped well below the cloud. Why would it provide such firm support now?

I think the $284 bottom is related to some BB level on weekly chart, not sure though. I suspect fundamentally it's connected to M3 ramp, and $284 may be a bottom based on perception that Tesla has achieved 2k/wk but may still struggle to get to 5k/wk. This new production pause could have potentially challenged that perception, but the stock price seems to be saying that the market is taking it in stride and doesn't see it as something materially negative. I also don't think the China news has much significance today. After the March dip, I see some non-trivial number of Tesla longs wanting to trade these dips, and willing to sell if they think it's going to dip again. China deal, is still too long term to prevent any short term dips due to M3 ramp fears.

 

[Vinny809]

Did my part and bought 250 more shares!

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

FYI, CNBC is about to talk about Tesla after commercial break, said, "the real reason Tesla is having a production halt".