My birthday is July 10th and this year the best present is the 5k meet and cash-flow positive. LET'S DO THIS TESLA!
)There certainly seems to be potential in electric trucks. Nikola got $8.5 billion of orders in 2 years, so you would expect Tesla's order rate to run at at least $1 billion per quarter.
If you're going to throw around figures like this around here, we sort of expect a link to justify it. Anyway. According to this article, Nikola got 8000 pre-orders, worth $8B. That assumes a price of $1,000,000 per truck. Rather a lot really. The article also says that they are refunding all the deposits. This was to embarrass Tesla, which uses deposits as working capital. But there's another reason to require deposits, and that is to make sure that the potential buyers are at least a little bit serious. Maybe I'll order one.
Sure, here's the link: Nikola suggests it’s no Tesla, refunds deposits on fuel-cell, electric semi trucks
I'm just salivating over how much oil the semi will displace. Using your $1b/Q revenue rate to do a rough estimate below, the semi at about the same amount of batteries per quarter of production, will displace 5-6x as much of energy used in driving vs the M3 per quarter of production.
I don't think this article is entirely correct. I think the depositors (up to $2,850) have a preference in bankruptcy and so likely would not be wiped out.
Hmm. That's an interesting perspective that may not be wrong. Clearly the shorts have dogpiled themselves on this stock to the point where there isn't much room for more. Weak longs sold on the recent drop to $244. I have to believe most longs holding TSLA at this point are confident and not planning to sell based upon the Q1 ER. Elon definitely could mention some positive catalysts regarding the ramp, China, who knows. I really believe the dangerous position going into the ER falls on the short side. However, I'm not confident it will be a massively green day. Maybe a moderate green day? The ramp is still the primary catalyst at the moment, and the market will probably not reward TSLA until it is clear that the ramp is on target for 5,000 per week. With the last shutdown of the line, there is some uncertainty about the ramp progress. I won't be buying weeklies or anything like that, but probably picking up some June calls. Most opportunistic longs are waiting for TSLA to decisively break above the range. At this point, that probably means getting above $300 on volume. Some shorts will have their stops for a range breakout to the upside, so that would start squeezing the shorts a bit. Once it gets going above $300, I think $320 will show up pretty fast. The question still remains, what is going to get it decisively above $300 at this point? Will the ER have the firepower to do that? Maybe it could since sentiment is so bad. I think I'll pick up some June calls tomorrow and/or Wednesday, and then wait to see what happens on Thursday. I'm definitely not going to over-commit.
