TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ThortsMD]

I did the same. Great idea. Hope it keeps folks from shorting my shares.

Which type of sell option does one select do make this happen?

 

[ggr]

Which type of sell option does one select do make this happen?

Just place a good-until-canceled sell order with a comfortably out-of-the-world limit price like $2125. (Wouldn't want the shares to accidentally sell at, like, $1500.)

Actually, I just cancelled my standing sell order, which was only for $450. I figure if they get sold short now, that actually will make the squeeze more painful. This is the first time I actually believe in a real short squeeze. But it might still be a few months coming.

 

[woof]

Electrek reporting VW ordering an additional $23 Billion in batteries...doesn't say from whom.
(VW doubles its electric vehicle battery contracts to $48 billion)

Elon hinting "These are really big numbers"
(Elon Musk on Twitter)

Can VW be ordering batteries from Tesla?

 

[AlMc]

Batteries: I may be wrong but the producer of the batteries is Panasonic and they have contracted to sell the batteries to Tesla produced at the GF and elsewhere.

Now, if you are talking about complete battery packs then 'maybe' Tesla would be the seller but as they can't make enough to supply their own vehicles I doubt they will sell to others

Short Squeeze: I am all in on hoping for this but remember that everyone seemed to predict one because of the recall by institutions of shares because of the Solar City acquisition vote and that never happened.

I think @Johann Koeber has it correct a couple posts upthread that it will more likely be a prolonged slow burn

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

1,540 more S & X in transit with an ASP of ~$100,000 would be about $154 MM. 1,180 more M3s in transit with an ASP of ~$55,000 would be about $65 MM or a total deposit balance increase of $220 MM

Nope. The deposit on cars in transit is $2500 each, so they inflated customer deposits by a grand total of $6.8 million, not $220 million. [2720 cars x $2500]

The $220 million is the revenue Tesla will book in Q2 when customers take possession of those cars.

 

[tander]

Say, if Tencent is snagging another cool 10-20% of TSLA ("These are really big numbers.") which translates into 5-10B or 16-33M shares, would anyone think that this alone would force a short squeeze?

Or would an additional catalyst (something like Chinese GF announcement + double projected M3 production rate) be needed?

Also, "a next level" "short burn of the century" implies a higher squeeze than the infamous one from the Volkswagen share at 5x within two days, which would catapult TSLA to roughly $1500. Does anyone think this is even remotely possible? I mean, the circumstances of the VW squeeze were very special after all.

Never say never. This tweeting is not exactly subtle. I'm not sure how positive the China factory will be considering it will cost a lot, but it is a huge accomplishment in that it will likely be the first factory to be free of traditional partnership rules.

You might be onto something with the m3 demand too. Just to put it in perspective, bmw sells like 400k 3 series a year although demand has been waning drastically since the m3 unveiling. AND Toyota Camry are about 400k a year. Now most people wouldn't see a Tesla competing with a Camry, but the 35k Tesla m3 is only $50 more than the highest optioned Camry, and that is BEFORE any tax credits, so the low end Tesla with tax credit is the same price as the mid range Camry. Right there, in comparing only two competing models, the market for the model 3 is 800,000 cars a year. How many people would choose a Camry or a 3 series over the Tesla? How many other cars could you make that comparison with?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Elon going strong on twitter again. He tweeted an article recapping the S3 Partners analysis about the dwindling number of shares available to short that's being discussed here tonight. In the tweet with a link to the article, this comment,

"Looks like sooner than expected. The sheer magnitude of short carnage will be unreal. If you’re short, I suggest tiptoeing quietly to the exit …"

as a response to his tweet this morning,

"Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time."

Media coverage of Tesla has been so relentlessly negative that it feels like close to rock bottom on sentiment. Then there’s this: Time to Revive TTAC's Tesla Deathwatch? Tesla Could Run Out of Cash This Year - The Truth About Cars

Going by the Buffet principle of being greedy when everyone is scared...

 

[Causalien]

Batteries: I may be wrong but the producer of the batteries is Panasonic and they have contracted to sell the batteries to Tesla produced at the GF and elsewhere.

Now, if you are talking about complete battery packs then 'maybe' Tesla would be the seller but as they can't make enough to supply their own vehicles I doubt they will sell to others

Short Squeeze: I am all in on hoping for this but remember that everyone seemed to predict one because of the recall by institutions of shares because of the Solar City acquisition vote and that never happened.

I think @Johann Koeber has it correct a couple posts upthread that it will more likely be a prolonged slow burn

When it happened in 2013, it was a very long slow burn. Some of us were seeing VW like short covering and mis-positioned some of the option timing. But overall, everyone made out like bandits.

 

[Causalien]

Never say never. This tweeting is not exactly subtle. I'm not sure how positive the China factory will be considering it will cost a lot, but it is a huge accomplishment in that it will likely be the first factory to be free of traditional partnership rules.

You might be onto something with the m3 demand too. Just to put it in perspective, bmw sells like 400k 3 series a year although demand has been waning drastically since the m3 unveiling. AND Toyota Camry are about 400k a year. Now most people wouldn't see a Tesla competing with a Camry, but the 35k Tesla m3 is only $50 more than the highest optioned Camry, and that is BEFORE any tax credits, so the low end Tesla with tax credit is the same price as the mid range Camry. Right there, in comparing only two competing models, the market for the model 3 is 800,000 cars a year. How many people would choose a Camry or a 3 series over the Tesla? How many other cars could you make that comparison with?

I believe the partner: Panasonic will fund the Gigafactory 3 in China. Panasonic is sitting on a huge load of cash. It says here that it is 1.2 T JPY which translated to $10bil in usd. I am having trouble processing these large numbers.

 

[Time]

God Emperor Elon Musk - "Looks like sooner than expected. The sheer magnitude of short carnage will be unreal. If you’re short, I suggest tiptoeing quietly to the exit …"

And people wonder why we invest in this company.

HAH!

A CEO who is out of F's to give...priceless...

 

[Reciprocity]

I believe the partner: Panasonic will fund the Gigafactory 3 in China. Panasonic is sitting on a huge load of cash. It says here that it is 1.2 T JPY which translated to $10bil in usd. I am having trouble processing these large numbers.

They really only need to fund their own half. Here is why. If you're a bank, and Panasonic and Tesla come to you and they want a loan to build this giant factory, Panasonic puts down it's $5B, Tesla takes a loan for the second $5B secured with the building and land. In terms of Tesla equipment, that scales with production on the battery side. The equipment should be the same as currently used in Nevada, so no unknowns. The equipment to build the cars doesn't require payment until after the equipment is installed and running. For model 3, that's copy/paste, so the equipment can start contributing to cash flow soon after it's turned on. For Y, the hope is that the vehicle is built in part on the model 3 lines. Saves size footprint, very close on the skateboard. The body will be taller, doors might be different, roof and lift back. So certainly there will be adjustments required to support Y. But it's not a completely clean slate.

The point is that the second versions of these factories will be cheaper and come online faster. The big issue Tesla had was not what it cost, but how long it took. Capital raises where to pay for delays in the cash flow from hundreds of thousands cars while paying for the equipment for those cars. This issue should be greatly lessened as well as the associated risks with subsequent factories.

Lastly, loans become more viable when you have a proven commodity like Fremont and gf1/2. You can point to that success to fund loans for China and Europe. Local governments should also be interested in helping push that through sure to the jobs created.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Electrek reporting VW ordering an additional $23 Billion in batteries...doesn't say from whom.
(VW doubles its electric vehicle battery contracts to $48 billion)

Elon hinting "These are really big numbers"
(Elon Musk on Twitter)

Can VW be ordering batteries from Tesla?

Unlikely. But from Panasonic is quite possible.

 

[jhm]

Isn't Tesla's policy that payment in full is required before a vehicle is delivered? Shouldn't most, if not all, of the increase in cars-in-transit from Q4 to Q1 be taken into consideration before attributing the deposit balance increase to new reservations?

"4,060 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q1, which was 68% higher than at the end of Q4 2017. An additional 2,040 Model 3 vehicles were also in transit to customers."​

"In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter."
​

1,540 more S & X in transit with an ASP of ~$100,000 would be about $154 MM. 1,180 more M3s in transit with an ASP of ~$55,000 would be about $65 MM or a total deposit balance increase of $220 MM

​

I am not attributing all of customer deposits to reservations. That's not the point because we know that there are some 450k Model 3 reservations, about $450M in deposits. The point is simply that customer deposits puts a dollar value on demand. Naturally as a customer goes from having a reservation, to placing a deposit on an order and all the way to making full payment, this is an expression of that customers increasing intent to buy product. So any increase in customer deposits is a signal that demand is building faster than Tesla can satisfy demand. Moreover, it is reported right there in the financial statement.

 

[jhm]

I have a guess that Tesla has already arranged Chinese financing for GF3. Indeed, such an arrangement may have been part of the negotiations with the Chinese government that granted Tesla the opportunity to fully own their Chinese manufacturing arm.

There is no question that China wants to be the dominant producer of EVs in the world. Tesla could help China break into the EV export markets. So basically if GF3 is large enough, it will not only build product for domestic market, but export markets as well. They know that Tesla products will be well received on the world stage, so the only question is how much of the manufacturing opportunity can China tap.

So If China is ready to harness Tesla as a vehicle into the global EV and advanced battery markets, then this indeed would be a next level shorts burn of the century.

So let's see if my hunch is anywhere near the mark.

 

[Cosmacelf]

How?

Just guessing here, but he’s quite a big Goldman Sachs customer, personally. And also all the other IBs want to be nice to Tesla to get business. So if Deepak gives a few of the major Wall Street firms a call, he could get real time insight into what their desks are showing. Extrapolate the rest, and you have a pretty good idea of what’s going on.

 

[dc_h]

I have a guess that Tesla has already arranged Chinese financing for GF3. Indeed, such an arrangement may have been part of the negotiations with the Chinese government that granted Tesla the opportunity to fully own their Chinese manufacturing arm.

There is no question that China wants to be the dominant producer of EVs in the world. Tesla could help China break into the EV export markets. So basically if GF3 is large enough, it will not only build product for domestic market, but export markets as well. They know that Tesla products will be well received on the world stage, so the only question is how much of the manufacturing opportunity can China tap.

So If China is ready to harness Tesla as a vehicle into the global EV and advanced battery markets, then this indeed would be a next level shorts burn of the century.

So let's see if my hunch is anywhere near the mark.

If the Tencent tour went well and Tesla had a few hundred thousand more deposits, maybe they wouldn’t need much financing?

 

[RobStark]

Just to put it in perspective, bmw sells like 400k 3 series a year although demand has been waning drastically since the m3 unveiling. AND Toyota Camry are about 400k a year.

BMW 400k number is world wide while Camry 400k number is USA only.

Last year BMW sold 59,499 3 Series in the USA plus 39,634 4 Series (essentially 3 Series Gran Coupe) plus 40,691 X3 ( Model Y competitor) plus 5198 X4 (X3 Gran Coupe)

Put them all together and they sold about the same as the 3 Series when it was the only BMW option.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon on twitter:

Looks like sooner than expected. The sheer magnitude of short carnage will be unreal. If you’re short, I suggest tiptoeing quietly to the exit …

Twitter

I'm starting to get excited.

This reminds me very much of the “Tsunami it hurt” warning several years back before the stock took off.

 

[defc0n]

Sigh. Elon’s comments are getting me excited. He wouldn’t directly address shorts like that unless something(s) big were coming up.

Made a few bucks off ALB and BABA past few weeks. Going to see about hopping back into TSLA yet again after the next dip. I’ll be holding it for quite awhile this time.

 

[Richard007]

Don’t wait too long to get back in! Add to shares daily. Time is not on your side. Think $550.25 price so hurry up and get in!

I’ve been adding from $260 a few weeks ago uto $278 yesterday.

My sell price is $2,550 (would sell just half of my position). Almost at 1K shares now.