TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

What would you like Elon to discuss on Tuesday?

Tesla Energy, a top area of interest for investors, is leading the way with more than 50 votes, followed by Model 3 production update and subsequent gigafactories. What do you want to get out of tomorrow's Shareholder Meeting?

Tesla energy: great to see traction starting. Will TE be at 1 billion per quarter in 2018 or 2019? With GF ramping up, will margins get close to 20% in 2019, or longer term?
Will Tesla he led off on 200,000 in Q2?
Based on high ASP, will model 3 margins be above 25 or even 30% in Q3 or Q4?
Will you break ground in Shanghai plant in 2018? Based on model 3 margins you don’t need a cap raise, but would you do one anyhow, to grow faster?
Will AP dev speed up as model 3 picks up pace and your data gathering is improved?

 

[neroden]

Canada EV rebate is split by provinces here: rebates-incentives
Ontario: $14k (on EVs under $75k MSRP), Quebec: $8k, British Columbia: $5k
Eastern, Northern and Prairies Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) have no rebate to support their oil and gas income.
For the three provinces that have rebates, they are not tied to income, everyone treated the same, and no timeline set for when the rebate will be reduced or removed (for example without warning January 2018 Ontario put a $75k MSRP cap on the rebate effectively eliminating the MS & MX from the program).
Note the exchange rate between USD and CAD, as of this morning it cost $1.30CAD to buy $1.00USD.

This is all correct. But the unmentioned wildcard is that if Doug Ford (of the Ford drug dealer family, brother of the late crack-smoking mayor of Toronto Rob Ford) wins the Premiership in Ontario, everyone expects him to kill the Ontario electric car rebate. If the NDP wins, the rebate will probably stay in place. But there's some incentive to rush cars to Ontario before the election in case Ford wins.

 

[LordAstinus]

Tesla (TSLA) Factory Restarted Friday, on Way to 5,000 Weekly Model 3 Units - Chowdhry

 

[bambam4171]

Tesla (TSLA) Factory Restarted Friday, on Way to 5,000 Weekly Model 3 Units - Chowdhry

Paywall, how sure is he? That sure would pour some hot water into the cold water from the Needham analysts that said 5k/week not doable for the next 12 months

 

[JRP3]

It's Trip, so take it with a grain of lithium.

 

[bambam4171]

Woa, are we breaking 300 today?

 

[Unpilot]

Nice sp rise to start!

 

[Tslynk67]

FWIW:

 

[ZsoZso]

Canada EV rebate is split by provinces here: rebates-incentives
Ontario: $14k (on EVs under $75k MSRP), Quebec: $8k, British Columbia: $5k
Eastern, Northern and Prairies Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) have no rebate to support their oil and gas income.
For the three provinces that have rebates, they are not tied to income, everyone treated the same, and no timeline set for when the rebate will be reduced or removed (for example without warning January 2018 Ontario put a $75k MSRP cap on the rebate effectively eliminating the MS & MX from the program).
Note the exchange rate between USD and CAD, as of this morning it cost $1.30CAD to buy $1.00USD.

I would like to add an important caveat for the Ontario $14k rebate: we have elections coming up in a few days (June 7th) and if the Conservatives win, they will most certainly eliminate the $14k rebate. They clearly stated that they want to roll back / cut most of the pro-environment changes that he current Liberal government made. You can expect Trump-like handling of climate-change and CO2 emission, so any support for EVs will be history. Potential Model 3 buyers know this which puts an extra pressure to buy now rather than wait for other options such as AWD or SR version.

ps: @neroden beat me to it

 

[jhm]

Last call for shares under $300.

 

[Tslynk67]

Supercharger investment beginning to show it's worth:

2019 Jaguar I-Pace Review: From London to Berlin in an All-Electric Jag - Motor Trend

...We’re plugged into the third fast charger we’ve found in the area, but energy is trickling into the battery. We arrived with 12 miles of range left. We could be here all night...

 

[Tslynk67]

Last call for shares under $300.

You hexed it!

 

[Earlian]

Supercharger investment beginning to show it's worth:

2019 Jaguar I-Pace Review: From London to Berlin in an All-Electric Jag - Motor Trend

...We’re plugged into the third fast charger we’ve found in the area, but energy is trickling into the battery. We arrived with 12 miles of range left. We could be here all night...

That is true!

The so called “fast chargers” in Europe and even in germany suck today. So IF someone will do long trips with their new (no Tesla) EV, they need several authorization cards or accounts and mostly find only 1 (in words “one!”) charger at a charging location. And then the charger doesn’t work, or is blocked by an ice, or the authorization doesn’t work?

That is no hoax, it’s the hard reality nowadays and mayb ok for the real pioneers and EV enthusiasts, but for the normal customer that wants the same comfort then with his last ice car?

I tried my Model S (with Chademo at several other chargers). Let’s be honest: There was a 15% chance, you couldn’t charge. So I’m happy to have the no-brained-ever-working Supercharger Network! All other charging possibilities I only use for destination charging now, but on tour it is SUC only!

And please @other EV manufacturers don’t cry on this, because that you need a capable charging network was written on every wall in big letters, for years!

The new Ionity network is literally only on papers and we all know how hard it is, to find the right spot, with enough power to provide for a 8x fast charger, along the “autobahn”.

So, it’s at least another 3 years till a real competitor EV could compete at long range travels. And this is just vital for the most customers here.

I hope the ipace finds enough customers because we need a lot more EVs in the center of dust. Tesla simply can’t produce as much as we desperately need right now. But without fast charging they’re still on their own....

 

[jhm]

You hexed it!

You're welcome. Life is full of second chances.

 

[Tslynk67]

That is true!
The “fast chargers” in Europe and even in germany suck today. So IF someone will do long trips with their new EV, they need several authorization cards or accounts and mostly find only 1 (in words “one!”) charger at a charging location. Think of this thing doesn’t work, ist blocked by an ice, or the authorization doesn’t work?

I tried my Model S (with Chademo one several other chargers). Let’s be honest: there was a 20% chance, you couldn’t load. So I’m happy to have the no brained Suoercharger Network! Everything es like only use for destination charging, but on tour it is SUC only now!

And please @other EV manufacturers don’t cry on this, because that you need a capable charging network was written on every wall in bug letters, for years!

The so called Ionity network stay on papers and we all know how hard it is to find the right spot, with enough power to provide for a 8x fast charger along the “autobahn”.

So, it is another 3 years till a real competitor EV could compete at long range travels. And this is vital for the most customers here.

I hope the ipace finds enough customers because we need a lot more EVs in the center of dust. Tesla simply can’t produce as much as we desperately need now. But without fast charging they’re still on their own....

Indeed, I've had several bad experiences with other charging networks and basically you cannot rely in them at all.

Tesla even offered other manufacturers to partner with them, for suitable investment, what a missed opportunity and how short-sighted.

Fact is that even with Tesla's paid SuC model, the fact that you just turn-up and plug in is a major advantage in itself.

 

[bhtooefr]

...would I be right in saying that the movement in the stock price right now is probably tied to pre-shareholder meeting activity?

I recall a similar rise with fairly low volume before the earnings call, and then a short attack that began the day after.

 

[gene]

...would I be right in saying that the movement in the stock price right now is probably tied to pre-shareholder meeting activity?

I recall a similar rise with fairly low volume before the earnings call, and then a short attack that began the day after.

Been in TSLA for 6 years. Every and any Tesla "event" begins the following day with a short attack. Some attacks more successful than others.

 

[wipster]

Been in TSLA for 6 years. Every and any Tesla "event" begins the following day with a short attack. Some attacks more successful than others.

I agree with Randy Newman's opinion of "short people"

 

[CuriousSunbird]

...would I be right in saying that the movement in the stock price right now is probably tied to pre-shareholder meeting activity?

I recall a similar rise with fairly low volume before the earnings call, and then a short attack that began the day after.

I am not sure about a short "attack", but certainly today's news on the reservation cancellation rate will encourage bears.

 

[Ocelot]

...would I be right in saying that the movement in the stock price right now is probably tied to pre-shareholder meeting activity?

I recall a similar rise with fairly low volume before the earnings call, and then a short attack that began the day after.

Tesla shareholder meetings are usually very non-eventful. I cannot remember anything unveiled or significantly changed at a meeting. so i would say the stock movement, 'just is'.