TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Here are two articles from Zacks today that are rather positive about Tesla, including the announcement of job terminations:

The "Short Burn of the Century" Seems to be Taking Shape in Tesla

Here's Why Tesla (TSLA) Stock Climbed Again & Why It Matters

 

[TrendTrader007]

easiest part of trading a stock is buying. Now comes the second hardest part which is holding a strongly up trending stock likely going parabolic. hardest is selling which thankfully is literally months away
bears have totally lost their grip on the stock and this is likely going parabolic. I would put the blinders on and totally ignore the daily candles and just follow the EMAs. expect this stock to go several times higher over the next year or so
$TSLA Paul Tudor Jones is totally right. a huge market melt up is coming over the next few quarters and bears will be totally crushed If EVER there was a time to be super leveraged in $TSLA it is now. I would be selling my house and buying $TSLA but that is just me. not an advice

 

[MartinAustin]

I love reading TrendTrader007's posts when the stock is going up

BTW - TSLA performed amazingly today. I think if the announcement had been made prior to the annual stockholders' meeting, the drop would have been more precipitous.

When I saw the news, and noted that the stock was up +7% at the moment CNBC was breaking it, I thought to myself that Tesla couldn't have had a better moment for the news to leak.

Could they have been sitting on this? Not Elon's style, but it came to mind. He has certainly been working to avoid depressing the stock lately. (while all the time, insisting there won't be a cash raise)

Either way, there was warning that this was coming. He talked about the reorganization during the last conference call, right? And I sensed an undercurrent in the wording he/they were using at the time, that suggested that work on new programs such as Model Y and Semi were going to slow down, mostly to keep priority on 1) Model 3 Manufacturing, but also 2) the likelihood of profit. Perhaps the results of the restructuring will be seen through the rest of this year as they discuss new programs like roof/Y/Semi. Not that I think delays in those programs will be a problem. Beefy Model 3 deliveries is all Tesla needs to thrive and kill the shorts.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I love reading TrendTrader007's posts when the stock is going up

I find him to be a broken record.
Not much different (just opposite) from myriad of bears that keep repeating the same stuff.
It's almost like he's trying to will SP into listening to him, or trying to influence it...

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

If EVER there was a time to be super leveraged in $TSLA it is now.

Every investor has to decide what’s right for them, but I think now is a terrible time to be leveraged. Tesla is such a fast-growing company that you can grow rich investing in it without any leverage. And by avoiding leverage, you don’t risk getting your shares called away from you & missing out on rallies like the $50 gain of the last 5 trading days, and the $100 gain of the last 10 weeks.

 

[sundaymorning]

Every investor has to decide what’s right for them, but I think now is a terrible time to be leveraged. Tesla is such a fast-growing company that you can grow rich investing in it without any leverage. And by avoiding leverage, you don’t risk getting your shares called away from you & missing out on rallies like the $50 gain of the last 5 trading days, and the $100 gain of the last 10 weeks.

I’m hoping bears are leveraging their farms on this run up, but that’s just me. Definitely not an advice, bears... but you’re welcome to take it however you please.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Having worked in various flavors of IT for nearly two decades, I don't think I've ever seen "layoff" in IT around here lead to anyone being rehired. Though, that might just be because nobody sits around collecting unemployment if they can help it, because it won't pay the bills (it's capped, at least here in Texas). Everyone always gets hired somewhere else long before the laying off company is hiring again. Maybe they would have had a shot at rehiring, but by then they're somewhere else. Grass is always greener.

 

[hoang51]

... Grass is always greener.

Greener by what? Watering it? Providing sunshine? Greener where? On the other side where cows do not eat?

Normally companies that report restructuring see their stock goes higher, not lower when announced. I hope TSLA will continue trending upwards later today.

I had a slight feeling of wanting to put in a stop at $350, but to get all of my shares to be green, it would need to be over $355. So keep covering shorts at higher share prices!

 

[Krugerrand]

It really is semantics. The folks that want to drive the SP down will spin it one way and the longs (myself included) will see it for what it is.
If the CEO say's we need to reduce the "barnacles" and then in the following months does just that....well I see this as a positive.

Not semantics for the employees as what they get or dont get in compensation upon their departure would be different.

Agree certain groups will see if differently.

 

[Remus]

Greener by what? Watering it? Providing sunshine? Greener where? On the other side where cows do not eat?

Normally companies that report restructuring see their stock goes higher, not lower when announced. I hope TSLA will continue trending upwards later today.

I had a slight feeling of wanting to put in a stop at $350, but to get all of my shares to be green, it would need to be over $355. So keep covering shorts at higher share prices!

Well, it is understandable to get jitty after price rising like that. And in anticipation of q2 disappointment there might be a pull back. But nothing is certain. Who knows what would be leaked out w.r.t the China GF? number of cars they stashed away in Q2? and maybe market would just shrug off q2 result due to all we know now.

 

[WarpedOne]

Well... re "SP goes up when companies restructure": now we can see what fueled this run-up of past few days.
We were scratching our heads what is the reason, now we have it.

The market got this info before elon sent the internal memo. This was in the works for some time and had to start spreading through departments in past weeks and leaked out. Not to Fred, not to CNN and the likes but to market players.

Yesterdays dip was just a reaction from algobots scanning news headlines and LFT daily traders.
Is the runup now over? No way to know before the time shows it.

 

[bambam4171]

Could be, that we are in for a bit of a downtrend. Maybe the change introducing new lines did not go as smooth as they hoped?

Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version

 

[McMountain]

I was wondering about the low invitation numbers, too. Can it really be attributed to a change in VIN assignment policy or an intentional holding back of VINs?

 

[Maddin0r]

Do you guys think that this invitation estimates are having enough power to affect the stock price?

 

[bambam4171]

Do you guys think that this invitation estimates are having enough power to affect the stock price?

Well in the not so far past we had even good news ending in downward trend on $TSLA. Your guess is as good as mine
Mine would be yes, I've said this before, I think we might go lower in the 320-330 area until the 5k/week numbers are confirmed. Which should be the moment of the real short squeeze.
Not an investment advice, I'm just an IT Programm-Manager and Hobby-Investor (but all in long $TSLA)

 

[McMountain]

At some point, the VIN assignments should turn into production and then sales, at which point the should affect the share price.

 

[Tslynk67]

Barrons disagree with the above speculation: Tesla: Model 3 Deliveries Racing Higher (Updated)

Erickson writes that his recent checks with 20 Tesla sales centers across the U.S. indicate that volumes are ramping up "meaningfully," with run-rate volumes improving from the high teens per store per week to the low 30s since mid-April. With three weeks left to go in the quarter, he estimates Tesla is notching between 30,000 and 35,000 Model 3 deliveries in the quarter, above his previous estimate of 20,000 to 25,000.

Given this, he raised his estimates, as he now expects Tesla will deliver 118,182 Model 3 vehicles this year, up from his previous 98,182 estimate, and he's projecting Model 3 gross margins turning positive in the third quarter.

This leads Erickson to believe that the bear case for Tesla--that Model 3 demand is falling or production isn't ramping--isn't likely to materialize in the near-term. That said, he still has a Sector Weight rating on the stock, as he believes there's a very large premium built into the stock price on perceptions of innovation and technology superiority.

 

[Seesaw]

The market got this info before elon sent the internal memo. This was in the works for some time and had to start spreading through departments in past weeks and leaked out. Not to Fred, not to CNN and the likes but to market players.

There could of been other info in the market. Theoretically the layoffs could be paving the way for a strategic stake by another party - such as a Chinese firm. Just all a wild guess, but would allow Elon to avoid the capital markets.

 

[jhm]

Do we know anything about what specific positions have been closed? This could give us a better sense of how restructuring is supposed to tailor the company.

 

[HG Wells]

I was so disappointed yesterday when the stock ONLY went up 14 points.
I really hope today is better.

Well it wasn't better. We went up a measly 10.67 points.

At this rate I won't be a billionaire till Labor Day.

Life just isn't fair.