Here's my take on the leaked production update email. It appears clear that in 2 weeks, they will be somewhere between 3,500 and 4,900 per week. At this point, they are targeting 4,900, so they aren't aiming for a beat, just trying their hardest to close the gap from where they are to get very close to the guidance of 5,000/week.
From Elon's leaked email to employees:
"All parts of the Model 3 production system are now above 500 and some are almost at 700 cars already."
-we don't know how much above 500, but this tells us that they either are now able to, or should be able to, produce over 3,500 units per week. Some processes are almost at 700/day. Of course, you can only produce a complete car at the pace of your slowest process. It's probably safe to assume the bottleneck processes are just slightly above 500 or else they would have indicated a higher level.
Elon "will stay “almost 24/7” at the Fremont factory to help fix the last few bottlenecks to bring the production to ~700 units per day."
-alright, this is his top priority and focus, which should help. That's encouraging. It seems clear that the absolute max to expect within 2 weeks is 700/day = 4,900/week. For anyone optimistically thinking they will surprise and be above 5,000/week, this should temper that idea.
The current bottlenecks all need “radical improvements. These are the ”paint shop output, GA3, bringing up the new GA4, End of Line and Module Zone 4 at Giga”.
-the language is a little concerning here when Elon says they need "radical" improvements in "all" of these bottlenecks. One is bringing up the new GA4 line, so that's less concerning to me since it is going to happen soon, it's likely just a matter of +/- some number of days from the end of the quarter before that one is fully operational. However, the other ones need radical improvements to get faster. Jerome Guillen has been moved to overseeing the new assembly line. JB Straubel is working at the GF bottleneck production of battery packs.
"The CEO invited anyone in the company who “feel can help out in any of those areas” to reach out".
-This line and the one about needing "radical improvements" suggest they haven't yet found the solutions to getting those bottlenecks up to 700/day. It seems to me (disclaimer: I'm not in the manufacturing industry) that it is an awful lot to expect all of these things to happen within the next 2 weeks. It's still quite possible that one of the bottlenecks does not improve much in the timeframe, leaving Tesla perhaps closer to 4,000 than 5,000.
All of this really only matters for the end of quarter numbers, which in turn may affect the news coverage and sentiment. In the end, it looks to me like they are continuing to make meaningful progress on the ramp, but may not be able to jump all the way up to 5,000/week over the next couple of weeks.