The article writer doesn't seem to know much about what he's talking about. I'm sure it's still a quant trade, even if it's a straightforward stock purchase. (Momentum trade perhaps.)
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I expect negative spin on Q2 financials, but what do I know?
Then Q3 financials, when Tesla shows profit and positive cash flow, will be spun as "gimmickry".
Q4 financials, however, which come out in February, will be pretty hard for anyone to ignore. If as many of us expect they show a clear profit, it's going to be hard to force the stock price down even if there's a trade war and a recession and the Fed raising interest rates and a Presidential impeachment.
I don't think it's coincidental that the 2019 convertible bonds don't mature until March 1.
They forgot to tiptoe. Guess it's very convenient at least for the tiny ones to forget an exit is now officially locked and closed for 2 decades Elon time. (although a small fraction might be allowed to donate to charity).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Of course there is work to do. It is a different vehicle.
And Roadster is before Tesla had experience in building anything.
They are running modified Model X on rails in tunnels right now.
Honestly, I'm a bit concerned about how the China sanctions announced today are going to affect the hopefully soon to be announced Gigafactory over there and hence the expected rise in the SP. Anyone else have thoughts on this, especially if that's where the Y is expected to be built...
Y will be on two continents (per Musk's same continent regionality comment)
China was removing tariffs/ joint ownership requirements on EVs recently, so they might exempt them now.
So, we know that the short-sellers are still piling in, from S3's information. But we're rising fast on high volume.
This says to me there are some big-money buyers. Anyone speculating on who they are? Funds doing end-of-quarter window-dressing? A big long-term buyer building up a big stake? Momentum funds? Tencent? Lots of little-money buyers (unlikely but you never know)? Quants? We won't find out until weeks later, of course.
This says to me there are some big-money buyers. Anyone speculating on who they are? Funds doing end-of-quarter window-dressing? A big long-term buyer building up a big stake? Momentum funds? Tencent? Lots of little-money buyers (unlikely but you never know)? Quants? We won't find out until weeks later, of course.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I wish one of them were me. "Big money" is not a typical descriptor associated with teachers though! LOL!
Dan
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Let me rephrase; only old people who want to reduce constapation like dates.
I used to feel the same way about dates. However I've found they are a great way to add sweetness to food without the same negative effects of refined sugar. Soak dates in water overnight to soften them and add them to fruit smoothies or other dishes, and/or use date sugar, (dried ground up dates), instead of sugar. Dates and date sugar are whole foods with fiber and other nutrients and as such they are absorbed more slowly without the same blood sugar spike as refined sugar.
I expect Y on three continents - NA, Asia (China), and Europe.
Let's hope. But who knows, things change daily nowadays... maybe China will call Chicken Little hands' bluff.
Well he already publicly announced that he gave Kim whatever he wanted so that Kim does not nuke your famliy, so everybody knows he is a pushover now.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
this deserves wider audience:
your analogy to 2013-2014 run up is correct. i have similar thoughts. looking at quarterly and monthly charts as well as weekly my best guess is that the price rise from $244.59 bottom in April 2018 to current is similar to rise from August 2012 bottom at $25,52 to Nov/Dec 2012 $35.80
however, this time the SP may rise even faster and more relentlessly in a parabolic fashion. it's a fool's errand to guess the eventual SP high but based on Jesse Livermore's Time Element concept i would give it another 7 months before a major pullback so end of December 2018. even that will be only a minor pause before the next leg starts.
those who are heavily leveraged and superlong $TSLA are about to become super rich by end of 2018 provided they do not lose their nerve and sell prematurely
your analogy to 2013-2014 run up is correct. i have similar thoughts. looking at quarterly and monthly charts as well as weekly my best guess is that the price rise from $244.59 bottom in April 2018 to current is similar to rise from August 2012 bottom at $25,52 to Nov/Dec 2012 $35.80
however, this time the SP may rise even faster and more relentlessly in a parabolic fashion. it's a fool's errand to guess the eventual SP high but based on Jesse Livermore's Time Element concept i would give it another 7 months before a major pullback so end of December 2018. even that will be only a minor pause before the next leg starts.
those who are heavily leveraged and superlong $TSLA are about to become super rich by end of 2018 provided they do not lose their nerve and sell prematurely
I expect a dip after q2 deliveries number, I think they will underwhelm. But q2 earnings call and outlook, assuming 5k steady state by then, along with high margin model 3 cars sold out through 2018, profitability and China announcement. It will officially be the end of the beginning for Tesla and trigger the short squeeze Elon has mentioned.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Bolded part: it's possible, even probable, but you can't know that for sure.
You sound like you know and are expert, but you were already wrong with the same claim in 2017.
One possible outcome of being brave and leveraged is to end up bankrupt (I know, I've almost done it).
sundaymorning
Active Member
It looks like the market did not react much to the Chinese tariff announcement. My interpretation is that by now we are expecting both sides to get more serious and engaged in talks to please one another for the better good.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
TT007, why do you think they will be in danger of losing their nerve and sell prematurely? Do you foresee a majoe dip be fore recovering by the end of 2018? In that case, why not hold off until the dip and then leverage up?
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