Kenriko
Former Vendor
A Model X refresh would be a nice bump. Maybe it's just wishful thinking as I want to get in on some of the sec179/bonus depreciation action.
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A Model X refresh would be a nice bump. Maybe it's just wishful thinking as I want to get in on some of the sec179/bonus depreciation action.
MartinAustin
Active Member
TSLA has fallen from $364 to $345 today. What's going on... shorts finally got their pants on for work?
I can't believe it would be longs taking some profit... TSLA has been spiking into this territory many times recently and there's no expectation for it to end here.
I can't believe it would be longs taking some profit... TSLA has been spiking into this territory many times recently and there's no expectation for it to end here.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I won't rule that out. I converted more shares to J20 400C. I think this is a nice dip to take on a little more risk, but only with LEAPS. Today is just another proof that short term is unpredictable. Long term, Tesla has turned the corner and I think buying and holding for 1-2 years will pay off very well.
there was a lot of negativ media coverage and a lot of people are saying that Tesla didn't really produce 7k cars this week because in the recent email to Employees EM didn't say "produced" but factory gated, which means 7k cars left the factory but could be preproduced (from my initial understanding). SP falling so much is very bad news for me because i bought a lot of short term options earlier today.
Do we actually have the full email somewhere?
sweter
Member
Official report says "produced" in the very 1st sentence, so this whole "factory gated" drama is pure nonsense.
Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month
Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month
stef
Member
Production, production, production.
Deliveries were always going to be capped by the 200.000 threshold.
Only bonehead analysts could expect Tesla to concentrate on deliveries in Q2.
That said, amazing how the consensus was 28k deliveries yet none of them believed Tesla was producing more than the 2k burst rate of March... where would these 28k cars come from!?!? Rebranded unsold VW??
Like I predicted. Bear raid attack at 10:12AM, 14000 shares dumped in a minute (25000 in 3 minutes) for the purposes of driving the price down. Subsequently pushed down on low volume with fast dumps whenever the stock starts creeping up.
They won't be able to make this stick, obviously, but they can play a lot of games this week. I wouldn't be surprised if there's actually another round of FUD when Tesla announces the 200,000th car shipped in the US. Next week, however, with the big long investors back in the office, it's gonna be different. I expect Musk to buy more stock if the bear raids keep the price down; it's too good an opportunity.
They won't be able to make this stick, obviously, but they can play a lot of games this week. I wouldn't be surprised if there's actually another round of FUD when Tesla announces the 200,000th car shipped in the US. Next week, however, with the big long investors back in the office, it's gonna be different. I expect Musk to buy more stock if the bear raids keep the price down; it's too good an opportunity.
I agree that it says produced and ends confusion
but the factory gated wording was very strange
Mader Levap
Member
You are still at that "oh noes they will sooner or latter run out of reservations" nonsense? People already told you that by your (il)logic other carmakers should've gone bankrupt long ago, since they have exactly zero reservations and none coming. But I will give you one thing: they do not have any cancellations either.
It is almost like there are other ways to buy car than reserving it many years or months in advance. Almost.
All snarky sarcasm aside, you completely ignore certain hidden assumptions in your claims.
- You assume for no apparent reason that cancelations not only are larger, but also will grow in future. I expect you to be hung up on dwindling tax credit as excuse for that claim.
- You assume that people that would like to buy/reserve car but they do not want to wait years/months, do not exist. (that's it, once you can order car within weeks or days, there will be no new interest)
- You assume that growing numer of model 3 on streets won't have any positive effects on new reservation rate.
- You assume that if any of that "model 3 has demand problem" will actually pan out (extremely unlikely in next two years, unlikely after), Tesla won't move finger to remedy that situation, like, I dunno, use traditional ads or rebate programs or whatever companies usually do in this kind of situation.
But CFRA analyst Efraim Levy said the it does not view the production rate as "operationally or financially sustainable," although he conceded that it could become so over time. "As usual, we expect the bulls and bears to largely reiterate their views after the latest development," he wrote in a note. Separately, he said reports that Tesla is asking for another $2,500 non-refundable deposit from Model 3 reservation holders "as a little unnerving, as it seems to be an aggressive attempt to meet otherwise difficult targets of being cash flow positive in Q3.," he wrote
Clear indication that he doesn't understand the way the company works.
Clear indication that he doesn't understand the way the company works.
sundaymorning
Active Member
CF who? They think 5k is unsustainable, just like 2k was unsustainable...
mltv
Member
you called it. look like I should be buying.
Just a reminder, Tesla just ended the "anti-sell Model 3" period. If you think in terms of this framework and despite that, net reservations have not declined, imagine a period where they start to aggressively promote Model 3 now that they have cleared the production hurdle!
The bear case has always been about waning demand. It has been repeatedly debunked, even with the premium priced S and X. They continue to be repeated for M3. It's just getting ridiculous I think. Unless you have a valid reason why it will be different this time?
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm adding on this totally irrational pullback. I kind of expected it today but I'm also a little surprised to actually see it happen. TSLA is at $343 and getting analyst downgrades after what they achieved in Q2? They don't seem to have a clue about what is coming at them even at this point. Or, maybe they do. Either way, thank you and I will have some more.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Factory gate means finished product but undelivered to customer hands. It’s shorts trying to manipulate as they usually do.
factory gate Definition in the Cambridge English Dictionary
factory gate
UK
PRODUCTION, COMMERCE the entrance to a factory. This is used especially to describe the price of goods when they leave the factorybefore any retail profit or additional costs such as transport:
The price of goods leaving the factory gate rose by 0.2% last month.
The goods will be sold at factory gate prices (= ).
For me, today's price action is a crystal clear indication that the other side is a well-organized force rather than a bunch of clueless individual shorts that honestly believe a short thesis and bet money on it. And while they have enough power to manipulate the stock they will continue to do so while some of us will keep trying to find logic in the short term price action.
P.S. That's why I stopped playing short-term TSLA long time ago
P.S. That's why I stopped playing short-term TSLA long time ago
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