TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Drax7]

A win should feel like a win, and the perverse price action is sad.
Ok, the Market is not yet satisfied with this outcome, as questions
Remain about sustainability and profitability.


The proof should be evident within weeks.
Nonetheless the 5000 achievement is no small feat. Once you know it can be
Done it’s just a matter of refinement to sustain it .

Sustained production above 5,000, increasing to sustained 6000 within 2 months,
Coupled with positive cash flow and gap earnings will offset
The negative price action.

 

[Krugerrand]

This entire conversation sickens me. How can political and institutional greed have so much sway on the success and failure of a company trying so hard to do the right things and create positive change. Whether it's Tesla or any other company. Watching all this play out makes me understand why people have little to no interest in Wall Street, the media, analysts, all this crap. Blatant manipulation through false reporting and manipulation of facts. Slanted bias arguments meant only to mitigate what should be hailed as a triumph...and the majority of people are to stupid or lazy to question it. I understand that the powers that be want to keep it that way and why. Capitalism at its finest, right? Absolutely disgusting.

Dan

Cliche alert: Money is the root of all evil.

It’s not, but pretty darn close. Welcome to planet earth, where the most intelligent species is also the stupidest.

 

[Reality]

BTW, do you notice how low-volume this discussion thread is today?

pretty sure thats because the stock is tanking

 

[Waiting4M3]

Check out spaceX:
SpaceX valuation shows ‘an unlimited amount of funding’ available in private markets, Equidate says
Although different competition landscape, but we can't say tsla is much more unattractive than spacex

Yes that is one of the most likely scenario, Elon could get enough funding from SpaceX to buy out Tesla. This was not the case 10 years ago when Tesla was just starting.

 

[Ellec]

I love this price action, it's adding more gunpowder to the eventual short squeeze. This is the death throes of the short thesis, time is running out for them so they're only option is to hit the stock with a massive bear raid.

 

[Tslynk67]

Just wondering, maybe Elon will have a 4th of July surprise?

Tesla Independence Day would be nice...

 

[ProtomanX]

No more bakwuptcy jokes please

Nah. It will be Tesla re-branding themselves to sell liquor. I'm still waiting for my Teslaquila

 

[aznt1217]

Bulge Bracket bank commentary now jumping on the bandwagon after the microshops commented yesterday. Full Text:

Tesla's stock extends drop; J.P. Morgan widens Q2 loss outlook amid higher 'burst production' costs
BY MarketWatch
— 10:34 AM ET 07/03/2018

Shares of Tesla Inc. ( TSLA

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) slumped 4% in active morning trade Tuesday, as selling continued in the wake of the electric car maker's second-quarter production update. The stock had rallied as much as 6.4% intraday Monday, after Tesla said it hit its target of producing 5,000 mass-market Model 3 vehicles in the last seven days of June, but the stock reversed ground to close down 2.3% amid Wall Street skepticism (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock- soars-after-hitting-5000-model-3-production-target-and-shooting-for-6000-2018-07-02) over the sustainability of that production pace. On Tuesday, J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated his underweight rating and stock price target of $180, which is 44% below current levels. He said hitting production targets was likely aided by past practices of unsustainable "burst production," especially given that second quarter deliveries of 40,740 vehicles fell well short of consensus expectations of 48,874 vehicles. Citing higher costs associated with "burst production," Brinkman widened his second-quarter loss-per-share estimate to $2.80 from $2.45. The stock has gained 3.3% year to date, while the S&P 500 has tacked on 2.2%.

 

[bdy0627]

Looking at 2017, this is kinda eerie:

Monday, July 3rd 2017
TSLA gapped up to a high of $371 and then plummeted, closing at $352, a drop of 5%.

Wednesday, July 5th, 2017
TSLA gapped down to open at $347, closing at $327, a drop of 5.7% (down 7.1% from the day before).

Thursday, July 6th
TSLA gapped down to open at $317, closing at $308, a drop of 2.8% (down 5.8% from the day before.)

Friday, July 7th
TSLA opened and closed at $313 (up 1.6% from the day before)

Monday, July 10th
TSLA opened at $312, made a new low at $303, and closed at $316 (up .9% from the day before)

Tuesday, July 11th
TSLA opened at $316 and closed at $327, up 3.5% from the day before


Will we follow a similar pattern this year? I think we probably will see something pretty similar. Is there a compelling reason to think shorts won't continue to control the stock this week? I don't think so. FOMO on a big bounce this week is probably misguided. Next week? You bet.

I don't know how low we will go, but I do think next week we will close higher on Friday than we do this Friday. The message is to be careful adding short term options today and Thursday in particular. Last year, you would have been just fine to wait until Friday or even the following Monday to add. Shorts are clearly in control and they are serious about driving this stock down as low as they can.

 

[brian45011]

At the same event (also reported by Reuters), Panasonic said it has nearly completed its first $1.6bn tranche of investment in Tesla ́s Nevada Gigafactory, the world ́s largest battery plant by GwH of production.

On the next conference call, maybe the YouTube analyst could request an update on the budget and schedule for completing GF-1.

Consensus seems to be GF-1 is ~30% complete. The 2014 presentation showed a total estimated cost of $4-5 billion with Tesla contributing $2 billion. The 10Q stated:

As of March 31, 2018 ..., we had cumulatively capitalized costs of $576.4 million ... on the consolidated balance sheets in relation to the production equipment under our Panasonic arrangement. We had cumulatively capitalized total costs for the Gigafactory 1 of $3.54 billion ... as of March 31, 2018..."
​

Backing out the effect of the Panasonic capital lease, Tesla has spent about $3 billion and "Panasonic said it has nearly completed its first $1.6bn tranche of investment "

 

[abasile]

Just picked up more shares on a $320 limit order that actually executed

 

[bobinfla]

Buying opportunity?

Yes. Added another 930 shares. That makes another 930 shares that won't be loaned out, and that shorts won't be able to use when they need to cover.

 

[brian45011]

Looking at 2017, this is kinda eerie:..

In the first week of a new quarter, some institutional holders adjust their portfolios.

 

[bdy0627]

For chartists: it looks like there is a strong lower trendline around $296. I'm interested in opinions on the support level below $310.

 

[Chartered321]

Market reaction is totally understandable:
Elon's promise/expectation: sustained weekly 5k M3 with a peak of 6k.
Reality: peak of 5k achieved temporarily in a TENT (you gotta be kidding me...).
It's another delay, I'm not surprised we go back where we were one month ago.
I mean I still like Elon and Tesla, but he's a celebrity and a rockstar, I understand why fund managers and Institutional people are fed up.

Actual figures are the only way to convince the market and stop the trolling / BS. But now we have to wait for 3Q18.

 

[neroden]

We were always going to be waiting for 3Q18. Well, this was clear at least since last September.

 

[Boomer19]

Market reaction is totally understandable:
Elon's promise/expectation: sustained weekly 5k M3 with a peak of 6k.
Reality: peak of 5k achieved temporarily in a TENT (you gotta be kidding me...).
It's another delay, I'm not surprised we go back where we were one month ago.
I mean I still like Elon and Tesla, but he's a celebrity and a rockstar, I understand why fund managers and Institutional people are fed up.

Actual figures are the only way to convince the market and stop the trolling / BS. But now we have to wait for 3Q18.

if he overestimated the effect on the market that hitting 5k would have, and and there is no other news...that’s a problem.

a self imposed goal, and a necessary goal, explained here;
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable)

but if 5k is all he’s been roasting shorts about for the last couple months;
- short burn of century
- short positions explode
- who likes short shorts
then he’s looking like the goat, at the moment.

i know this is a long game, but hes playing into their hands. it’s one thing to defend, its another to taunt. i suggest he grows some thicker skin, stays off twitter, and does what he’s supposed to do. you want to beat them? do it with actions, not words.

i hope he makes me look like an idiot for posting this, i really do. and i know some of you will be all over me for this.
but i hate when the bad guys are steering the ship. and i believe some of the recent behavior, while under pressure, enables the haters to appear correct, and dissuades newbies and potential newbies from knowing the truth about the company, it’s goals, and how they hope to achieve them.

i don’t think i’m alone when i say this really p!sses me off. and i think that i/we have a right to be, albeit temporary

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I have waited to add some more LEAPs quite some time now.
Personally I have seen yesterday's SP movement as obviously irrational short term SP movement. Today is even more so.
I am currently thinking about buying some more LEAPs today here at this level and saving some dry powder down to $270.
This is just crazy volatility.
What does anybody else think?
Thanks in advance!

 

[bdy0627]

if he overestimated the effect on the market that hitting 5k would have, and and there is no other news...that’s a problem.

a self imposed goal, and a necessary goal, explained here;
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable)

but if 5k is all he’s been roasting shorts about for the last couple months;
- short burn of century
- short positions explode
- who likes short shorts
then he’s looking like the goat, at the moment.

i know this is a long game, but hes playing into their hands. it’s one thing to defend, its another to taunt. i suggest he grows some thicker skin, stays off twitter, and does what he’s supposed to do. you want to beat them? do it with actions, not words.

i hope he makes me look like an idiot for posting this, i really do. and i know some of you will be all over me for this.
but i hate when the bad guys are steering the ship. and i believe some of the recent behavior, while under pressure, enables the haters to appear correct, and dissuades newbies and potential newbies from knowing the truth about the company, it’s goals, and how they hope to achieve them.

i don’t think i’m alone when i say this really p!sses me off. and i think that i/we have a right to be, albeit temporary

You have to be patient. This stock is excruciating at times. Elon is not interested in rewarding traders with a sudden massive squeeze, and the market doesn't work that easily anyway. It is going to take some time, but Elon knows what he is talking about.

 

[bhtooefr]

Looks like this is the short narrative now: Shouting CEO, changing rules: inside Tesla's Model 3-building sprint

The tl;dr version is basically claims that 12 hour shifts, mandatory weekend shifts without notice, and taking people off the S line and bumping Model 3s ahead of Model S in the paint shop is what's going on, as part of the whole burst rate narrative.