Really folks, I think we all need to calm down on this "net order" business. We are collectively being hysterical about this where we have easy precedent for how this will unfold:
In 2012 the Model S was planned by the (as usual "overly optimistic and crazy wild ambitious") Tesla folks to be delivered at a rate of 12.000 / year for the years to come. (I'm happy to dig out the old investor relations slides on this). People called it optimistic and crazy because Tesla in 2011 had some 3000 reservations for the Model S. They planned to introduce the Model X to maintain demand at about 12k cars / year until the Model 3 (Model E) is coming out.
Last year Model S/X were at 100k cars (and at significantly higher average selling prices).
Today, we have roughly 400.000 reservations (compare to 3000). With a planned capacity of 500.000 cars (compare to 12.000). If history is a guide, Tesla will be production constraint for years to come (now I sound like
@ValueAnalyst). What's more: the factory is humming and from the experts (Munro, the German analysts), to the car guys (see WSJ test drive of the Model 3) to the actual customers, everybody loves the car.
Even if I put on my most pessimistic and grumpy face, I can't see any problem here.
So can we stop the nonsense debate about demand? Thanks!