TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Because of this:
View attachment 320212
The Hog Negativity Index hit 10 yesterday. Back down to 9 today, but still super high. Never before has Tesla as a company been as close to real, solid profitability as they are today, and yet you’d think that they are about to go under if you read the press. The chasm has never been greater since I’ve been following the stock, with the infamous f*res being a close second.

Right now it all boils down to if you think that they can produce the 3 profitably. That’s it. They are already producing the 3 in vast quantities...that argument is basically over (was in SF yesterday...it seemed like every other car there was a Tesla, and saw a TON of 3’s). There’s absolutely no demand issue with any of the models. None. There’s no meaningful competition anywhere on the horizon that will be able to produce more than a few hundred per week....a drop in the proverbial bucket.

So the last and only defense the bears have is whether the 3 will be profitable, and 2 well respected firms tore it apart and said unequivocally that they could.

At least in the short term, isn’t the simpler bear thesis that Tesla will run out of money *before* getting to profitability? Given the tear down results, I don’t think anyone is expecting that the Model 3 will never be profitable(at least for the LR version, some are saying that of the SR version, seemingly ignoring existing data), but just that it’ll take too long to become so and they’ll run out of runway.

(Note: I don’t believe any of the above will actually happen, just giving what I see as the more reasonable bearish expectations)

 

[Remus]

Because of this:
View attachment 320212
The Hog Negativity Index hit 10 yesterday. Back down to 9 today, but still super high. Never before has Tesla as a company been as close to real, solid profitability as they are today, and yet you’d think that they are about to go under if you read the press. The chasm has never been greater since I’ve been following the stock, with the infamous f*res being a close second.

Right now it all boils down to if you think that they can produce the 3 profitably. That’s it. They are already producing the 3 in vast quantities...that argument is basically over (was in SF yesterday...it seemed like every other car there was a Tesla, and saw a TON of 3’s). There’s absolutely no demand issue with any of the models. None. There’s no meaningful competition anywhere on the horizon that will be able to produce more than a few hundred per week....a drop in the proverbial bucket.

So the last and only defense the bears have is whether the 3 will be profitable, and 2 well respected firms tore it apart and said unequivocally that they could.

Half of them moved to the 'demand' argument already.

I bought at 350 following Elons 'squeeze' tweet and felt grouchy since then. I guess I made peace with myself now and will continue to add in the next several months, since I saw no complaints about the model 3 from all my friends and colleagues.

 

[arathald]

I think Nissan is doing good things with the Leaf and they have other plans, no?

They sold a total of 44,814 Leafs (Leaves?) in 2017, 11,230 of them in the US. They have a total delivered base of 303,678 globally, 114,827 in the US. Unless they kick things up in a big way, Tesla is already leaving them in the dust. I realize that I'm comparing a single model vs an entire make, but I think that's valid when we're trying to specifically compare BEV sales/volumes.

(Source: Wikipedia, didn't verify original sources for global, but US numbers are here: December 2017 Dashboard - HybridCars.com)

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Because of this:
View attachment 320212
The Hog Negativity Index hit 10 yesterday. Back down to 9 today, but still super high. Never before has Tesla as a company been as close to real, solid profitability as they are today, and yet you’d think that they are about to go under if you read the press. The chasm has never been greater since I’ve been following the stock, with the infamous f*res being a close second.

Right now it all boils down to if you think that they can produce the 3 profitably. That’s it. They are already producing the 3 in vast quantities...that argument is basically over (was in SF yesterday...it seemed like every other car there was a Tesla, and saw a TON of 3’s). There’s absolutely no demand issue with any of the models. None. There’s no meaningful competition anywhere on the horizon that will be able to produce more than a few hundred per week....a drop in the proverbial bucket.

So the last and only defense the bears have is whether the 3 will be profitable, and 2 well respected firms tore it apart and said unequivocally that they could.

"Last and only defense"? Yeah, I wish.

These people don't need a reason. They tend to make up their own.

Dan

 

[ZachShahan]

I agree -- sentiment seems completely detached from reality, especially given where things stand with the Model 3 ramp. A little better today than yesterday but still -- as bad as late 2016 around the Spiegel bottom.

The thing I keep coming back to is that this reminds me of a similar time in the Model S production ramp.

I think it seems clear what's around the corner to those who follow the company's products & fundamentals and mostly try to ignore the hype/noise.

 

[Curt Renz]

Facebook down over 20% dragging the whole market down.

The number of Facebook users may have reached its saturation point. The huge demand potential for Tesla cars should become all the more obvious as Model 3's in ever increasing numbers are shown to friends, and folks start abandoning their ICE cars in droves.

 

[Remus]

"Last and only defense"? Yeah, I wish.

These people don't need a reason. They tend to make up their own.

Dan

Absolutely. You should seen their most recent argument, is that Tesla produced all these cars that they can not sell so they have to store them. One account started a 12 tweets thread laying out an "air tight" case and whole bunch of them nodding. Basically the entire argument is based on one shaky explanation of some random fact and then they built up from there. I wonder whether these people have trouble with numbers. Even assume each of their 'reasoning' has 80% chance of being true (it's actually 0.05%), chance of all of them being true is only 8%.

I remember when I tried to apply to graduate school in US from overseas I went through this GRE test which includes logic test. I wonder this should be the requirements for financial analyzing.

 

[AudubonB]

I like the neat action on $FB. It went from high off their rockers on dope $219 plummeting down to $168 with huge volume now on the down side way more than the rest of the day combined. The price graphs (but not the volume graphs) looked the same for AMZN, QQQ, SPY, AAPL, etc., so I zoomed out 6 months for all of them, and surprise, today's afterhours dip is nothing for all those except for $FB, for which it is a Grim Reaper hook for $FB bringing it down to April levels, 3 months ago.

$TSLA shorts are taking advantage of it just like the rest.

The volume on the macros is nothing, including $TSLA. That "down" moment for the rest of the market will drift away like a dandylion. $FB's down moment is in heavy volume, so that is a real stock movement for $FB; it will follow its own story.

Old fasioned anti-Trump media like $FB and $NFLX are chasing sclerotic stinky tail that less and less people want. Although I have no doubt that this market correction for $FB will have some bounces back and forth, $FB is ossified and fragile in the one business you'd naively think is agile, but the fragile nature of centralized control reared its ugly head. Remember: centralized. That's the big mistake the people at FB sold out to. They are old media through and through, and step to the death marches of Stalinist slavemasters. Every media-based company is subject to that, and if they are not part of the commerce of freedom, they will die the death of a trillion holes. FB chose to cover for gang rape death squads at the personal request of the German Chancellor, and cut off communications of old people trying to reach out to their own familiy members for needed help, causing them to die in horrible tortorous death genuinely thinking no one loved them; I can only imagine the workers at FB cackling at their misery. FB is an evil of unfathomable proportions, the sickness, even the stench of it, is hard to shake. Everyone I know who ever worked there quit almost as soon as they were hired, and showed signs of extreme disturbance they blamed on the company, which took them some time to recover.

Even as I edit this, the macros have already recovered in their dandylion low volume afterhours drifts, whereas ossified $FB continues to struggle amid heavy volume of popping their cognitive bubble; FB is so mummified, that it takes the drip of real water to reveal their decaying skeletal remains. Godspeed

Uh...that’s edited?

 

[defc0n]

I bought at 350 following Elons 'squeeze' tweet and felt grouchy since then.

You and I should be friends.

 

[defc0n]

They sold a total of 44,814 Leafs (Leaves?) in 2017, 11,230 of them in the US. They have a total delivered base of 303,678 globally, 114,827 in the US. Unless they kick things up in a big way, Tesla is already leaving them in the dust. I realize that I'm comparing a single model vs an entire make, but I think that's valid when we're trying to specifically compare BEV sales/volumes.

(Source: Wikipedia, didn't verify original sources for global, but US numbers are here: December 2017 Dashboard - HybridCars.com)

Funnied for “leaves”

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's a buying opportunity with my order at $280/share before taking off again. This is like a yoyo with string made of nanocarbon. The Institutional Investors bank on this fact - Tesla's not going anywhere. I say shut up and drive one for a week or your input doesn't count.

Last cycle, I predicted 380 and this pullback - I missed it by ~20. Now I'm targeting 280, then breakthrough the 380 ceiling in early Q4 anticipating the profits, with another drop on "news" as bears attack sustainability with SR versions and too much expansion (their fear), followed by a mind-blowing Q1 north of 400. (I guess that makes me an official Analyst because I made 2 predictions now.)

Meanwhile, I'm going to be playing with partial features of FSD in about a month (or two), and Waymo will be hiding behind NDAs and "guest" riders again where we only see videos of happy people and how well their SUVs drive (sometimes remotely) in their little Chandler 3D world. I just love doing circles around them... are they actually moving or just like to hang out at traffic lights? What a waste of gas.

So I tried to buy a Powerwall 2 for SRP's rebate offer, I can't get one. And still no commercials. I'm about 80% long, and play the rest in advance.

 

[SO16]

The FUD tide is suddenly going out - doesn't mean it won't come back in again in a few days, but for the moment... Maybe they've just run out of creative ideas and they're on an off-site, residential brain-storming together...

A big fudster is MontanaSkeptic and he has disappeared.

 

[ZachShahan]

You and I should be friends.

i thought i was smart buying in at ~310 and ~320. felt like an idiot when it went below 300.

that said, i now think a lot of FUD will be thrown at the company in next week or month that could sink it solidly below 300 a bit. we'll see.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

One of the things that make Tesla a fun stock to watch/debate, is that a surprising amount of the retail is in it (or out of it) for emotional reasons. Many of them have never read the financials. That gives interesting volatility and unpredictability.

I for one do read the financials. It was necessary to read them in order to understand Tesla’s need for Secondary Offerings as well as Debt Offerings to finance new product lines and facilities.

I also did much research on SolarCity’s debts and repayment schedules during the merger drama almost 2 years ago.

I’ve been under no illusions that TSLA is and has been a risky, volatile investment. However, I believe that the potential reward is worth the small bet I made, because people like Musk, Straubel, and Von Holhausen among others, have demonstrated the ability to bring an extremely compelling product to market, where most others have failed.

 

[shootformoon]

I think they will tend to try to go region by region as much as possible in terms of replacing ICE with EVs, to minimize the imploding effect offering well done EVs will have on consumer interest in their ICE cars. ie, China will have far more EVs made available sooner than the US (regulation in China is part a legit reason to have such a regional strategy, part a nice cover for their huge incentive to go to EVs as slowly as possible, an incentive which is not so attractive for incumbents to publicly discuss). For luxury car makers, there’s much less time to play this game with Tesla’s 0.1% going on 1% circa 2020 market share, 2-3% ~2025 coming right at their ~5+% of the market.

Much more on all this, which I see as Tesla’s broadest and most far reaching moat, here,

The Fractured Tipping Point Moat

tl;dr ICE incumbents moving to EVs like a dog being dragged to the bath tub, Tesla moving like a dog seeing a squirrel- and it’s not about ICE incumbents being clueless fools.

Now i realized tsla will have a supply problem at least in the next 5 years.

I guess the people who cancelled their reservation will regret. There is such a long line around the globe.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Sorry to bother you guys. I'm looking for the TSLA Market Action thread. I was just here just yesterday where pessimism reigned, however today it is overly optimistic, so I'm thinking I'm in the wrong thread.

 

[Words of HABIT]

The Ford share price sank to a 5-year intraday low today.

Correction: Ford was trading at these levels way back in July 1997. That is a 21 year low. Ford's best days are behind us.
F Interactive Stock Chart | Ford Motor Company Stock - Yahoo Finance

 

[RobStark]

I wonder if Elon would do it for $3B. He's not busy building mini-subs at the moment.

Why pay $1 for it when you can get it for free?

Build Gigafactories in North America,Europe, and Asia ASAP, Join Tesla Supercharger Network Today, build compelling EVs in every segment ASAP.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Now Ford shares are being hit after hours following its disappointing earnings and guidance.

Ford is talking about selling assets. “The team is making the hard decisions to raise the returns of underperforming assets where we can,” Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks said in a statement. “We will disposition the rest.”

If they have any factories they’re looking to get rid of, I think I know an interested party. I won’t even charge a finder’s fee.

 

[RobStark]

So the last and only defense the bears have is whether the 3 will be profitable, and 2 well respected firms tore it apart and said unequivocally that they could.

I have always liked and respected