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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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We'd sue for damages.

Securities lawyers are already going for it: Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) | Hagens Berman | National Class Action Litigation Firm based in Seattle, WA

It sure looks like Elon Musk made a materially false statement when he said "funding secured" at a 420/share price, with no majority investor (implying a consortium). The short investment thesis posits that Tesla has limited access to capital markets, which Elon blew away with this tweet.

If it's not true, then we were given materially false information and damaged by it.

Lying to damage shorts is still lying, and is still illegal.

The bulls will have a lawsuit, too. They'll say they saw his tweet and purchased at 370 believing that a 420 buyout was possible. If it turns out that the 420/share buyout was no where close, they'll have grounds to sue for damages as well.

This is why we have securities laws and procedures. It's why Musk should have filed an 8K detailing the plan instead of blabbing on Twitter.

Words matter. "Funding secured" was a huge, huge error for Elon Musk.

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The list of banks willing to do this is getting very small: Dan Primack on Twitter



Alex Sherman on Twitter

As I noted earlier, no matter what happens there will be lawsuits. In America & regardless of merit, trial lawyers & liquidity events go hand in hand these days.
 
Well I'll tell you where all the money is coming from to take Tesla private.

After receiving the roadster that Elon so kindly sent us, we offered Elon 100 square miles of the surface of Mars for every model three delivered to orbit around the planet.
This was before the all-wheel-drive version was available.
We've now sweetened the offer to include melting the two polar ice caps. These ice caps are composed primarily of carbon dioxide.
By melting them we will raise the atmospheric pressure to three psi.
While we know this is not breathable for you humans, it would raise the temperature and provide enough atmosphere for plants.

Elon has now found a buyer for the land. By making this exchange he will be able to take Tesla private. We believe this is a good deal for everyone.

Sincerely
Martian High Command

You have earned your name Mr. Wells!
 
I wonder how the SP can trade in this narrow range (373-375) It seems there are only two ways this goes...private with a 420 ...or higher buy out. Or the whole deal is a scam and Tesla is going bankwrupt. In either case the SP makes little sense.

Price is a blend of what the market estimates as possible outcomes. Let's say you think there is 90% chance the deal goes through and 10% it falls flat to bwank then the expected price is 90% of $420 plus 10% of $0. Total = $378
 
We'd sue for damages.

Securities lawyers are already going for it: Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) | Hagens Berman | National Class Action Litigation Firm based in Seattle, WA

It sure looks like Elon Musk made a materially false statement when he said "funding secured" at a 420/share price, with no majority investor (implying a consortium). The short investment thesis posits that Tesla has limited access to capital markets, which Elon blew away with this tweet.

If it's not true, then we were given materially false information and damaged by it.

Lying to damage shorts is still lying, and is still illegal.

The bulls will have a lawsuit, too. They'll say they saw his tweet and purchased at 370 believing that a 420 buyout was possible. If it turns out that the 420/share buyout was no where close, they'll have grounds to sue for damages as well.

This is why we have securities laws and procedures. It's why Musk should have filed an 8K detailing the plan instead of blabbing on Twitter.

Words matter. "Funding secured" was a huge, huge error for Elon Musk.

------------------------

The list of banks willing to do this is getting very small: Dan Primack on Twitter



Alex Sherman on Twitter

If, if, if.
 
When will Tesla identify the funding source(s)?

Is Elon waiting for an opportune time when an announcement could bump the stock price up?
Is he thinking it's smarter to keep it secret, to keep the stock price low? You don't want the price too high when you're planning to go private.
Will regulators compel disclosure at some point? When?
Could this drag on for months, with some people believing TSLA is a guaranteed $420+, while others believe the funding is not secure, and no definitive answer other than a tweet and an internal email? Or will we likely know the funding source(s) later this week?
 
Why would you have to sell your shares if it went private?
Is there any way people see of avoiding short term capitol gains tax for investments today if the company goes private in less than a year? We would have to essentially sell our shares even if we chose to convert to private right?


No this is not true. This is seen as an exchange of securities and not a sale. It is not a taxable event. Kind of like have a convertible bond and converting it into common stock. Not taxable as you haven't sold anything. They will be exchanging your public shares for private ones. The more important thing to worry about is the marketability of the private shares. By definition you won't be able to see them on any typical statement from your broker (cuz they won't have them!) Initial thoughts (TBD later) is that they would let you sell or buy more though Tesla on a quarterly basis. Since it's no longer publicly traded you won't have any idea of what a good/fair price would be. I trust they will have a method that will seem right. That detail is not worked out right now. I don't intend to sell no matter what. Didn't want to come across as too negative. Just some of the differences between investing in a publicly traded company and being a part of a private one.
 
Yes, now we camp at $370. It's not marshmallows we should be roasting. Everything falls into place.
sweetwater-sweetwater-420-bottle-box-of-24.jpg
 
Guess we're going to have to be patient and that some more "color" is needed before this thing takes off. Maybe information about which of Elon's Silicon Valley buds it is who are putting some of their fortunes in the pot? Maybe a joint venture? Just enough to light it up and make it blaze. Then we'll be of out the weeds and back in the green, smoke past 420 and go even higher. The shorts can't see the forest for all the trees, they'll be ripped apart, scurrying around like roaches. Yes, they'll find themselves in a very sticky, icky situation, trying to puff puff pass the buck to the next unlucky sucker but my hunch is that at the end of the day they'll end up burnt or even dankrupt.
 
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I think that Elon was forced to react today (the plan was there, but the timing was forced). The obvious reason for that- hostile takeover. He had to react fast and set a price that still seems reasonable, when reassuring the current investors and convincing them to keep the shares.

If the above assumptions is correct, the price we are going to see will depend less on the shorts covering and more on the valuation done from the "hostile" entities. We might see a bidding war, where multiple parties with forward looking valuation way higher than $420, try to get their hand on as much TSLA shares as possible.

To extend more on that.
The "quite" day suggest another outcome- ongoing negotiation between the Saudis and Elon. They are probably unwanted, but fighting them will lead to valuation that might be too much to handle. So the logical resolution will be to let them in.

That also explains why no new information came today.
 
Thoughts on SEC inquiry reported by WSJ?

It's prudent. WSJ is reporting that they are inquiring whether Elon Musk's statement of "considering taking Tesla private" and "having funding secured" was factual. English isn't my first language but I assume it means if he was telling the truth or not. He doesn't have track record of lying so I'm not worried. Then, according to WSJ:

The regulator also asked about why the disclosure was made on Twitter rather than in a regulatory filing, and whether the firm believes the announcement complies with investor-protection rules, the people said.

Well, as long as he disclosed the information publicly, to all investors at the same time through Twitter, I don't see what rule he would have broken? Also, we know Elon can sometimes be a little trigger happy on Twitter but if there's one thing he is not it's stupid. Before making those tweets I'm confident he talked it out with his legal team, CFO etc. And with the board of directors in advance, of course.
 
There is a middle possibility here, surely. I wd think it highly possible that Musk has received verbal assurances from three or four potential funders that they would each commit up to, say, $10bn of stock at $420 provided board seat. He may have used his own judgement to calculate that that $40bn is more than enough to cover any cash-ins. So from his pov funding secured. I personally would be surprised if he had written bids from multiple parties. If this is what has happened, it would be good for him to tweet some version of this so that people who doubt the value of verbal contracts can maintain their doubts, and the rest of us can gain clarity.
 
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