TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jw934]

Another possibility is that there is a large buyer who have specified a lower purchase price and the MM are moving the market in that direction to trigger stop losses so the order can be fulfilled.

We will know if that is the case if there is a single large volume right after 4PM tonight.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

agreed. i deleted it.
sorry sunbird

no problem

 

[tlo]

Pure speculation, but based on recent developments and this tweet...
Elon Musk on Twitter



... I believe some of the money is coming from China.

 

[ZachShahan]

I have been a long-term bear, but I can't believe Musk is actually lying about the funding being secured and only the shareholder vote being necessary. I went long calls today at $357.50

Just in time!
Good of you to come over to the Jedi side.

 

[ZachShahan]

Pure speculation, but based on recent developments and this tweet...
Elon Musk on Twitter

View attachment 324489

... I believe some of the money is coming from China.

Hmm, I forgot that one. I keep thinking of these two:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Starno]

Well a lot of people don't believe Elon will find the funds....

 

[Toolsmack]

It feels like us forum users are the only ones that see this as a buy right now. Are we the suckers somehow?

 

[ZachShahan]

Can't believe it's down to $350.

Well, I unloaded shares in another stock and put more into Tesla.

10% of me wants to go get a loan and put in some more, but that's too absurd.

Well, either we're all crazy or they're all crazy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Another possibility is that there is a large buyer who have specified a lower purchase price and the MM are moving the market in that direction to trigger stop losses so the order can be fulfilled.

I'm not sure it works that way:

• Stop orders are richest in the direction of 'old' price levels: price levels that have not been touched for a while. The range down to $340 was touched in the last week, with comparatively few new stop orders accumulated at key resistance levels.
• On the way up there were LOTS of stop orders: for example the $360 break-through two days ago to above $380 after Elon's tweet was brutal and I think was significantly magnified by cascading stops - some of those stops were more than 1 year old, installed after the old ATH. Personally I was very surprised it didn't break through to a new ATH - perhaps the big player active today was already active back then.

So the cost of marking down the price like that from $380 to $350 must have been significant - a net selling of around 5 million shares I think - even with the benefit of stop orders added. I cannot imagine a 'large buyer' whose business would be worth 5 million shares.

Note that we know it from S3 partners that whatever this activity is, it's done in a short interest neutral fashion - i.e. by someone who actually long TSLA.

There's really just four things that make sense in my mind:

• Market maker with literally tens of millions of exposure or excess shares - 5 million shares are peanuts in comparison,
• Some really big player is on the wrong side of a big options play, with options worth more than 5 million shares,
• Some really big player with 5+ million shares who thinks that by walking down the price to $350 and then walking it back up (and taking advantage of all the shorts and momentum traders that jump on this move) results in a net accumulation of shares. I'm not sure this is true - any significant move up will I think be very bullish.
  
• Hidden, market moving information we are not aware of,
• Something else.

Still very puzzled about it!

 

[mekberg]

Hmm, I forgot that one. I keep thinking of these two:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter

Tencent perhaps?

 

[lklundin]

Hmm, Credit Suisse has been one of the most bullish on cleantech over the past several years.

Right, they are f.ex. backing 40% of the 1.1 G€ investment in the 1 GW wind turbine park 'Fosen Vind' in Norway,
Fosen Vind - Wikipedia

 

[loky]

Just in time!
Good of you to come over to the Jedi side.

Let The Force be with The Longs

 

[dailo]

Can't believe it's down to $350.

Well, I unloaded shares in another stock and put more into Tesla.

10% of me wants to go get a loan and put in some more, but that's too absurd.

Well, either we're all crazy or they're all crazy.

Glad to know I'm not the only one crazy. I just did the same thing. I'm either going to be really happy or really sad in a few days...

 

[ZachShahan]

Right, they are f.ex. backing 40% of the 1.1 G€ investment in the 1 GW wind turbine park 'Fosen Vind' in Norway,
Fosen Vind - Wikipedia

They've been putting out reports for years (public & private) that are extremely bullish on cleantech. Some of the best reports I've seen and I've been covering cleantech professionally for about 8 years.

 

[lklundin]

I bet Jesus will show up if Elon wants the second coming next Tuesday.

To be delivered by a white clad personal driver in a midnight cherry Tesla Roadster, I presume...

 

[ezevphl]

Can't believe it's down to $350.

Well, I unloaded shares in another stock and put more into Tesla.

10% of me wants to go get a loan and put in some more, but that's too absurd.

Well, either we're all crazy or they're all crazy.

And we're below 350... Just hit 73 below Elon's offer.

Sounds totally crazy and makes me wonder if we will be at 100 below by the end of the week.

 

[gene]

$348 is about where we were after the earnings report and before Elon's 420 tweet.

 

[EngRyan]

Looking to join Sunbird at 09/07 date and in the last 5 minutes the spread has jumped up to 1.00+ when looking at a 400 call around 4.10. Spread was around 0.10 all day I have been watching. Did something just happen or is about to? All strikes have a huge bid ask spread now. 3.50 bid 5.25 ask 09/07 call right now...??

Edit: Tightened back up a bit...maybe I just need to stop hitting the refresh button ever 15 seconds.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I just bought bunch of short term options, next week, and the week after*
The way I see it, if deal comes through, I'll make money on these.
If deal doesn't go through, I lose this investment, but I get to keep my 90% of TSLA in registered Canadian plans and participate in future success of Tesla. Otherwise, I would have had to sell them, as RRSP/TFSA/RESP can't hold foreign private equity.
The only real downer is if clarity doesn't come in a week or so, but considering 4 day 8K requirement, I don't think that's probable.

* After learning that we may need to sell 90% of TSLA, wife decreed that I have to make 10% work as if it's 100%, so here, I'm trying

 

[ZachShahan]

Can't believe it's down to $350.

Well, I unloaded shares in another stock and put more into Tesla.

10% of me wants to go get a loan and put in some more, but that's too absurd.

Well, either we're all crazy or they're all crazy.

Damn, could have bought in lower.