TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[winfield100]

ignore the stock price action (if you can). Look at the Accumulation Vs Distribution since the "Speigel bottom" of 11/30/2017, (who should wear "short shorts"}
In aggregate and on average, about 185,000,000 shares have been traded/bought at slightly higher prices than sold at slightly lower prices. do a simple linear regression line or just look at it with your eyes. what does it say to you? other than someone(s) is/are buying
be patient for 20-40 years
TSLAP will be incredibly profitable with the entire solar system to explore
right now folks are 'self selecting' by being very long term investors in the actual stock
pre-position for your children and grandchildren to ride the BFR, and upgrades, as colonists in 20-40 years.

~19-20 months of slow accumulation by everybody

since jan 2013, about 500 million slightly higher than lower

 

[Krugerrand]

Going private would checkmate short position obviously. But I don't like being used (pawn) by Elon, forced to sell. We shall see what remedies tesla has for my/our predicament. Shorties will exploit this, calling going private the nuclear option, we longs are collateral damage. 420 is a joke, real offer will be in the low 500's. Next couple of weeks will be the craziest period in tsla history, so far. Remember fud never sleeps.

You aren’t being used as pawn and to think and say that is adding to the fud that never sleeps. He said he’d do all he can for the longs and he will. If you’re ‘forced’ to sell because of circumstances beyond his control, then it’s not on him but on you and your personal predicament or your broker etc... He’s proven his appreciation for people who have and continue to support Tesla.

It terms of the $420/share not being enough, don’t be ridiculous. Of course it’s enough for ‘today’. If it wasn’t enough for ‘today’ the SP would be significantly above it. Yeah, yeah shorts blah, blah, blah.

Most of us here know that Tesla’s value will continue to grow into the $420/share in the near future and then grow way beyond it. But right now, ‘today’, $420/share is fair.

If you really want to be part of TSLAP, then NOW is the time to get your ducks in a row and position yourself/prepare to position yourself to give you the best chance of being able to own TSLAP. This is what I’m doing. Playing out various scenarios concerning liquidity, the possible rates and timing of TSLAP rising and what that means for me and my family down the road, who’s holding my shares and chances of being able to follow Tesla private, what happens when a recession hits etc... It’s not Elon’s responsibility to do that for you. Take responsibility for your own investments and start solving your RRSP, IRA, Broker, foreign holder, whatever issues. There have been a number of ideas and suggestions put forth already. Don’t sit here complaining and putting it on Elon’s shoulders, waiting to have your hand held. He’s already doing everything he can to keep his company safe, growing and prospering thus your investment as well.

Sometimes in life things don’t go the way we planned or wanted. That sucks but it’s how it goes. I want all longs to be able to hold their shares and so does Elon. Make it happen.

 

[loky]

You aren’t being used as pawn and to think and say that is adding to the fud that never sleeps. He said he’d do all he can for the longs and he will. If you’re ‘forced’ to sell because of circumstances beyond his control, then it’s not on him but on you and your personal predicament or your broker etc... He’s proven his appreciation for people who have and continue to support Tesla.

It terms of the $420/share not being enough, don’t be ridiculous. Of course it’s enough for ‘today’. If it wasn’t enough for ‘today’ the SP would be significantly above it. Yeah, yeah shorts blah, blah, blah.

Most of us here know that Tesla’s value will continue to grow into the $420/share in the near future and then grow way beyond it. But right now, ‘today’, $420/share is fair.

If you really want to be part of TSLAP, then NOW is the time to get your ducks in a row and position yourself/prepare to position yourself to give you the best chance of being able to own TSLAP. This is what I’m doing. Playing out various scenarios concerning liquidity, the possible rates and timing of TSLAP rising and what that means for me and my family down the road, who’s holding my shares and chances of being able to follow Tesla private, what happens when a recession hits etc... It’s not Elon’s responsibility to do that for you. Take responsibility for your own investments and start solving your RRSP, IRA, Broker, foreign holder, whatever issues. There have been a number of ideas and suggestions put forth already. Don’t sit here complaining and putting it on Elon’s shoulders, waiting to have your hand held. He’s already doing everything he can to keep his company safe, growing and prospering thus your investment as well.

Sometimes in life things don’t go the way we planned or wanted. That sucks but it’s how it goes. I want all longs to be able to hold their shares and so does Elon. Make it happen.

Excellent points!

 

[Krugerrand]

Why someone would like to get like 10% ownership with 420, when he can get 10% ownership with 355 from stock markets? E.g. Saudis got 3-5% from open market without major stock move.

That’s peanuts in the scheme of things and believe it or not there are people who don’t care about money in the way the average person does. Whomever the investor/s is/are they clearly believe in the goal of Tesla over a few dollars difference between SP today and $420, especially when TSLAP is going to be worth much more down the road. Come on people, put your critical thinking caps on.

 

[Unpilot]

Whew...I think I am all caught up on this thread.....nope there is a "Messages have been posted since you loaded this page" popup!

 

[Unpilot]

But to Krugerrand's point...some of us long's support this mission to hurry the world towards sustainable energy with ...um...more vigor than others. The SP movement is a distraction for sure (one I am especially guilty of staring at) But I bought in because of the mission.

I am in as a long because of the mission. My kids and grand-kids deserve at least that much from me.

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you saying that Elon has never been too optimistic before? Come on...

I said no such thing. Come on...

Context. Please and thanks. We aren’t talking about some AP feature. We’re talking about his company’s health and survival, and about the ability to continue the mission with much less garbage, distractions and bs to deal with on a daily basis. In that context, no.

He has the funding secured just like he said, it’s not some overly optimistic timeline to drive cross country on AP - which btw, they could have done simply by gaming the route. They decided against that and it was the right decision, imo, despite the flack he’s taken because of it.

He’s taking Tesla private. Believe him or don’t. I’m prepared for either eventuality.

 

[AlMc]

Elon was actually at a hackers conference recruiting for spacex and Tesla. So the hqr tweet is aimed at them, not at the broader populous.

The short-shorts humor is about “the deal” actually happening, which his tweet insinuates to me. The “funding secured” and such, so he’s having a little fun with those people who’ve cheated, pillaged, lied, and stole to attempt to destroy a rapidly growing new American car company and new energy company employing over 30k (mostly American) people and counting.
.

. Just quoted part of this as part of my point.

I definitely agree. This is a strongly bullish sign, imho. He is feeling happy.

Guys Elon is going crazy on Twitter again, should I YOLO my entire portfolio into TSLA on Monday

I believe EM has secured the funding in his own mind and that the deal to go private gets done......But, have we not learned multiple times that correlating EM's 'moods' with direction of the SP or what is happening with Tesla specifically do not correlate.

Maybe he is just decompressing at the hackers conference/having fun. Maybe he has had two glasses of wine and is feeling 'chill'.

I believe in the mission statement and that the company has/is/and will continue to do great things for the planet/future generations and coincidentally for our net worth....but his moods do not make me more of a short term or long term 'believer'

 

[SO16]

Going private would checkmate short position obviously. But I don't like being used (pawn) by Elon, forced to sell. We shall see what remedies tesla has for my/our predicament. Shorties will exploit this, calling going private the nuclear option, we longs are collateral damage. 420 is a joke, real offer will be in the low 500's. Next couple of weeks will be the craziest period in tsla history, so far. Remember fud never sleeps.

Collectively we have made billions off TSLA for doing next to no work and yet still complain. *sigh*

 

[Bartek652]

Tesla's Elon Musk faces investor lawsuit

Please make complaint to BBC because they mislead readers with title suggesting that Tesla investor made a lawsuit against Tesla. That is corrected inside article that in fact short sellers made a lawsuit.

The title and lead to article is what 90% readers only see because of content agregators.

Complaint form:
https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?lang=en&reset=&uid=752821621

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla's Elon Musk faces investor lawsuit

Please make complaint to BBC because they mislead readers with title suggesting that Tesla investor made a lawsuit against Tesla. That is corrected inside article that in fact short sellers made a lawsuit.

The title and lead to article is what 90% readers only see because of content agregators.

Complaint form:
https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?lang=en&reset=&uid=752821621

What an annoying complaint form system. Almost want to file a complaint about the complaint form system.

 

[KarenRei]

I said no such thing. Come on...

Context. Please and thanks. We aren’t talking about some AP feature. We’re talking about his company’s health and survival, and about the ability to continue the mission with much less garbage, distractions and bs to deal with on a daily basis. In that context, no.

He has the funding secured just like he said, it’s not some overly optimistic timeline to drive cross country on AP - which btw, they could have done simply by gaming the route. They decided against that and it was the right decision, imo, despite the flack he’s taken because of it.

He’s taking Tesla private. Believe him or don’t. I’m prepared for either eventuality.

Musk is equally capable of being overoptimistic about the commitment and enthusiasm of his potential buyers as he is about anything else.

It's his nature. He's an optimistic person. We need to keep this in mind.

 

[ZachShahan]

Nope, he doesn't lie.

However, he
1) hyperbilizes
2) when going gets tough, and plans misfires, he's presented things in the most flattering light, with the language that is technically correct, yet essentially misleading. I haven't seen this much lately, but he's done it through Model X ramp-up (e.g. 'we have exited quarter at 2000 cars/week', which was really 30 cars on the last day, or something similar; I'm paraphrasing, for real example pls. check statement in the Jan '16 for how many MX were produced in Q4 '15 and compare with Q1 '16 output). I have no doubt that this is out of the best intentions and because he thinks problem will be solved in the next two weeks, and hence statement will hold true, but...
3) in general is overtly optimistic and makes logical leaps that in retrospect are hard to justify - this plays mostly in terms of time, because he rarely, if ever, truly fails.

These are the things that look like unbridled optimism from the viewpoint of someone with great amount of goodwill, and look like lies for those with ill-will. So yeah, he doesn't lie, but world is not black and white, so I'd caution for more nuanced interpretation of his statements.

In this particular case, I'm wondering if he had chat with Larry, and Larry after few glasses of wine said 'Yeah, Elon, we could definitely do that!', and few other friends also said 'of course we could raise $40B, world is flush with cash' or something like that, and that was his basis for 'financing secured' statement. Remember: best intentions, he thinks (and likely can) raise money, even-though he has just expression of interest. And then, FT article about Saudi's investment come up, SP starts spiking, and he felt forced to come out in front of rapid price appreciation, as his offer (he probably thinks) wouldn't stretch much past $420, and he needs it to look good to succeed. Remember, higher price means higher payout, but also higher percentage of stockholders will want to be cashed out, so amount of money that's needed probably grows exponentially with the price, until it flattens when all stakeholders but most ardent ones are exhausted. BTW, I don't know something like this is the case, but from my observation of Elon in the last three years, I consider it possibility (with significant, non-zero chances).

Zach, I was wondering if I should write above diatribe, as I'll collect bunch of disagreements, and I too, like to be liked . However, I though it's important that you specifically understand other points of view, as you're relatively new and powerful voice and have reach well outside of these walls.

Thanks. And good on you for being brave.

I agree with you. And I am not a lawyer, so can't judge how much risk there is here, but from what I've seen, "secured" doesn't mean he'd need a signed contract, and I assume that he had enough behind the statement (which seemed very clear and had clear follow-ups) to explain the situation adequately to the SEC. However, I am definitely not 100% certain, and I do agree that the low price right now is largely due to uncertainty on this one point.

I'm also not a huge fan of Elon's sometimes "matter of fact" statements about things that are just targets (there have been a number of them, of course, including the infamous "back seats will fold flat" of the Model X), but I lean toward thinking that when he said "financing secured," it wasn't careless optimism. I also have to assume he definitely knows to be careful about financial statements. He highlighted as much in the last shareholder meeting.

Whether that core statement is a lie, a fib, an overly optimistic projection, or something he can back up for whatever legal/SEC reasons necessary, I've made a judgement call and put down my chips. Crossing fingers now.

 

[loky]

Tesla's Elon Musk faces investor lawsuit

Please make complaint to BBC because they mislead readers with title suggesting that Tesla investor made a lawsuit against Tesla. That is corrected inside article that in fact short sellers made a lawsuit.

The title and lead to article is what 90% readers only see because of content agregators.

Complaint form:
BBC - Complaints - Home

Done! But man, it takes 5 min. Maybe we crashed the site

 

[ZachShahan]

Nope, he doesn't lie.

However, he
1) hyperbilizes
2) when going gets tough, and plans misfires, he's presented things in the most flattering light, with the language that is technically correct, yet essentially misleading. I haven't seen this much lately, but he's done it through Model X ramp-up (e.g. 'we have exited quarter at 2000 cars/week', which was really 30 cars on the last day, or something similar; I'm paraphrasing, for real example pls. check statement in the Jan '16 for how many MX were produced in Q4 '15 and compare with Q1 '16 output). I have no doubt that this is out of the best intentions and because he thinks problem will be solved in the next two weeks, and hence statement will hold true, but...
3) in general is overtly optimistic and makes logical leaps that in retrospect are hard to justify - this plays mostly in terms of time, because he rarely, if ever, truly fails.

These are the things that look like unbridled optimism from the viewpoint of someone with great amount of goodwill, and look like lies for those with ill-will. So yeah, he doesn't lie, but world is not black and white, so I'd caution for more nuanced interpretation of his statements.

In this particular case, I'm wondering if he had chat with Larry, and Larry after few glasses of wine said 'Yeah, Elon, we could definitely do that!', and few other friends also said 'of course we could raise $40B, world is flush with cash' or something like that, and that was his basis for 'financing secured' statement. Remember: best intentions, he thinks (and likely can) raise money, even-though he has just expression of interest. And then, FT article about Saudi's investment come up, SP starts spiking, and he felt forced to come out in front of rapid price appreciation, as his offer (he probably thinks) wouldn't stretch much past $420, and he needs it to look good to succeed. Remember, higher price means higher payout, but also higher percentage of stockholders will want to be cashed out, so amount of money that's needed probably grows exponentially with the price, until it flattens when all stakeholders but most ardent ones are exhausted. BTW, I don't know something like this is the case, but from my observation of Elon in the last three years, I consider it possibility (with significant, non-zero chances).

Zach, I was wondering if I should write above diatribe, as I'll collect bunch of disagreements, and I too, like to be liked . However, I though it's important that you specifically understand other points of view, as you're relatively new and powerful voice and have reach well outside of these walls.

Also, I agree that these are MOSTLY about timing. And I DO think he/Tesla is at some risk for the "rate of production" updates they have given from time to time that extrapolate weeks or months from days or weeks. Not always clear that's what he's doing, and sometimes quite misleading.

 

[rameshbende]

I think Tesla doesn't need to go private right now. Because Tesla will be profitable going forward and noise that shorts are making like bankruptcy,demand problem, profitability, cash burn etc. all of this will disappear in next 6-9 months. At least half of shorts will cover. Only argument left with remaining shorts will be valuation and competition is coming. Also Tesla will have sufficient room to manoeuvre it's growth because of cash flow.
Being public was distraction when Tesla was making losses and ramping production where bears will come and hit. But now as all the hard work is being done and I don't think going forward Tesla will struggle in ramping production for other models to extent they struggled given their experience.Also in Q3 Tesla revenue will be 7.4 billion that will be 150% growth that is really fast growth on very big base and Tesla doesn't need to grow faster than that.

Now was time to show to world Tesla can produce and be profitable. In fact going private can in fact be distraction for next 6-9 months given all the litigation and complex process involved.

 

[ZachShahan]

. Just quoted part of this as part of my point.





I believe EM has secured the funding in his own mind and that the deal to go private gets done......But, have we not learned multiple times that correlating EM's 'moods' with direction of the SP or what is happening with Tesla specifically do not correlate.

Maybe he is just decompressing at the hackers conference/having fun. Maybe he has had two glasses of wine and is feeling 'chill'.

I believe in the mission statement and that the company has/is/and will continue to do great things for the planet/future generations and coincidentally for our net worth....but his moods do not make me more of a short term or long term 'believer'

Mood on some topics is anyone's interpretation as far as stock price.

I just think he's demonstrating a good mood about this deal despite the insane FUD that has been exploding all week, and I do take that to mean that he and the board have made the progress he expected by now. Given how much "Tesla is going to be sued for this and Elon is going to jail" is going around, him getting on there and making relaxed jokes about shorts does imply to me that he thinks such claims are ridiculous and had a good week answering the SEC's questions.

We'll see.
Not an advice.

 

[ggr]

I think Tesla doesn't need to go private right now. Because Tesla will be profitable going forward and noise that shorts are making like bankruptcy,demand problem, profitability, cash burn etc. all of this will disappear in next 6-9 months. At least half of shorts will cover. Only argument left with remaining shorts will be valuation and competition is coming. Also Tesla will have sufficient room to manoeuvre it's growth because of cash flow.
Being public was distraction when Tesla was making losses and ramping production where bears will come and hit. But now as all the hard work is being done and I don't think going forward Tesla will struggle in ramping production for other models to extent they struggled given their experience.Also in Q3 Tesla revenue will be 7.4 billion that will be 150% growth that is really fast growth on very big base and Tesla doesn't need to grow faster than that.

Now was time to show to world Tesla can produce and be profitable. In fact going private can in fact be distraction for next 6-9 months given all the litigation and complex process involved.

You have revealed a fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of people have. People seem to think that Elon is black or white, totally altruistic or a total liar. Like all people, he's somewhere in between. You're right that Tesla doesn't need to go private right now. But if there's a time for Elon to benefit the most from taking it private, that would be now, before the market understands that it's become profitable and the price goes up. I wish him well and hope to be dragged along with him.

 

[cheshire cat]

Tesla's Elon Musk faces investor lawsuit

Please make complaint to BBC because they mislead readers with title suggesting that Tesla investor made a lawsuit against Tesla. That is corrected inside article that in fact short sellers made a lawsuit.

The title and lead to article is what 90% readers only see because of content agregators.

Complaint form:
https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?lang=en&reset=&uid=752821621

My first reaction is to apologise for the fiasco that passes for our "state broadcaster", which is funded by the majority of British taxpayers ( who have little say in the matter). However it is an organisation who whilst complaining of fake news, does a pretty good job of only broadcasting that which follows their adjenda whilst pretending to be neutral. To give some understanding of how this works it may help to know that the "boot camp" for many of their " journalists" is The Guardian newspaper ( known an the "Graun or the Grauniad". Because of their long history of typo's . This was once a famous campaigning newspaper , The Manchester Guardian. Sadly at some point it would seem that Tesla has fallen into their dislike section ( capitalism/not green enough/dislike of whiz kids ???)). So follows the Beeb, one of the more polite descriptions of The B B C. What was the old Russian joke about Pravda and Izvestia? P.s. Not complained there's no point as they are always right-----wait, I think I can hear Winston Churchill spinning in his grave!!!

 

[Matias]

That’s peanuts in the scheme of things and believe it or not there are people who don’t care about money in the way the average person does. Whomever the investor/s is/are they clearly believe in the goal of Tesla over a few dollars difference between SP today and $420, especially when TSLAP is going to be worth much more down the road. Come on people, put your critical thinking caps on.

With 170 000 000 shares, 10% is 17 000 000. If you pay 355/ share, 10% costs
6 035 000 000, with 420/share it costs 7 140 000 000. Difference is over one billion dollars. I’m sorry, but I don’t think that it is peanuts to anyone.

If future buyer thinks that 420 is a bargain, why didn’t he allready buy with 355 with or without the buyout plan.