TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Bartek652]

P.s. Not complained there's no point as they are always right-----wait, I think I can hear Winston Churchill spinning in his grave!!!

If you are British you can complain to Ofcom:
BBC Complaints – Online complaints | Ofcom

Then they have to communicate with Ofcom on that case.

 

[Krugerrand]

With 170 000 000 shares, 10% is 17 000 000. If you pay 355/ share, 10% costs
6 035 000 000, with 420/share it costs 7 140 000 000. Difference is over one billion dollars. I’m sorry, but I don’t think that it is peanuts to anyone.

Just wait long enough and we’ll all find out who it doesn’t matter to.

There’s an important life lesson in here; don’t project your reality onto others. What is important to you is not necessarily important to someone else. What you would do is not necessarily what someone else would do.

 

[Matias]

Just wait long enough and we’ll all find out who it doesn’t matter to.

There’s an important life lesson in here; don’t project your reality onto others. What is important to you is not necessarily important to someone else. What you would do is not necessarily what someone else would do.

You are so wise.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Dear Friends,
When we are discussing the Tweet Of The Financial Century, and using quote marks, let’s be accurate. We are better than the media, OK? We are not them...

‘funding acquired’

Is not what he said.

'financing secured'

Is also not what he said.
I don’t have the heart to put a Disagree on your fine posts for this, just feel ...disappointed.

When Elon is that economical with his words, usually they are chosen specifically and deliberately. We already speculate wildly, which is needed. Helpful to get the quotes right...

New Wooly Friend,
I can’t find the post now, but if you intend to throw this around

SEC investigation

You will wanna be prepared with a citation or don’t be shocked when challenged to back up these words (which have a legal meaning). We will eagerly consume supporting facts but whompy whords not so much.
Not An Accusation.

 

[brian45011]

When Elon is that economical with his words, usually they are chosen specifically and deliberately.

Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. Quotes

 

[AZRI11]

You aren’t being used as pawn and to think and say that is adding to the fud that never sleeps. He said he’d do all he can for the longs and he will. If you’re ‘forced’ to sell because of circumstances beyond his control, then it’s not on him but on you and your personal predicament or your broker etc... He’s proven his appreciation for people who have and continue to support Tesla.

It terms of the $420/share not being enough, don’t be ridiculous. Of course it’s enough for ‘today’. If it wasn’t enough for ‘today’ the SP would be significantly above it. Yeah, yeah shorts blah, blah, blah.

Most of us here know that Tesla’s value will continue to grow into the $420/share in the near future and then grow way beyond it. But right now, ‘today’, $420/share is fair.

If you really want to be part of TSLAP, then NOW is the time to get your ducks in a row and position yourself/prepare to position yourself to give you the best chance of being able to own TSLAP. This is what I’m doing. Playing out various scenarios concerning liquidity, the possible rates and timing of TSLAP rising and what that means for me and my family down the road, who’s holding my shares and chances of being able to follow Tesla private, what happens when a recession hits etc... It’s not Elon’s responsibility to do that for you. Take responsibility for your own investments and start solving your RRSP, IRA, Broker, foreign holder, whatever issues. There have been a number of ideas and suggestions put forth already. Don’t sit here complaining and putting it on Elon’s shoulders, waiting to have your hand held. He’s already doing everything he can to keep his company safe, growing and prospering thus your investment as well.

Sometimes in life things don’t go the way we planned or wanted. That sucks but it’s how it goes. I want all longs to be able to hold their shares and so does Elon. Make it happen.

Knew I would be criticized. My net worth falls short to be an accredited investor. Still support Elon's mission and appreciate the help from this community. Hopefully there will be a pathway so that my 629 shares can make to the otherside(privatization).

 

[Unpilot]

I am also a little "short" on net worth...OK maybe a lot short...but also hope to make it to the other side as a shareholder.
If it is not to be I will still give rides in my Model S and be as much of a evangelical a messenger as I am today.

 

[ggr]

I replied to a posting out in the Tesla general forum (not investors) but I think it makes a point that was worth moving here for more discussion. Basically, people are saying "Big Investor X wasn't approached by Elon" as an indication that the tweet was lying. There are many possible investors; all he needed was one (although subsequent discussion probably means two or more).

the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, which owns about 213,000 shares as one of the largest institutional investors in Tesla, said it had not been contacted by Musk or the firm before the announcement.

What a ridiculous comment. Firstly, there are about 200,000,000 shares of TSLA out there, so this investor represents just a tad over 1% of Tesla. This is hardly "one of the largest institutional investors". For another, they almost certainly have internal investment guidelines that would prevent them investing a large blob of their money in any one private company. In fact you can find their investment documents here: Investment Policies - CalSTRS.com .

Interestingly, they do allow themselves to invest up to 13% of their $223B assets in private equity. But I'd still be surprised if they would invest all of this (which comes to about $15B) in one holding.

1. The Private Equity Portfolio can include limited partnerships, (and other limited liability vehicles), direct investments in general partnerships, co-investments, and secondary interests in the following market segments: Buyouts, Venture Capital, Debt Related, Core Private Equity, and Private Equity Special Mandates. The primary objective for the Private Equity Portfolio is to provide enhanced investment returns over those available in the public market. 2. Private Equity has substantial fees and costs; consequently, emphasis will be placed on negotiating, monitoring, and controlling the direct and indirect costs of each limited partnership investment.

From their specific "Private Equity Policy":

1. The Maximum amount of the commitment shall not exceed:

Asset Type Diversified Non-diversified

Limited Partnership interests and
Separately Managed Accounts $1.5 billion $750 million

Co-investments, General Partner interests,
and
Portfolio Companies $500 million $250 million

(please forgive the formatting of the cut-and-paste. Page H-5 of the Private Equity Policy.)
So in fact they can't invest more than $250M, by their own policy, into TSLAP.

Why, then, would Elon even think about approaching them? There are plenty of investors who would have similar limitations, they all do, so not being approached means absolutely nothing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Knew I would be criticized. My net worth falls short to be an accredited investor. Still support Elon's mission and appreciate the help from this community. Hopefully there will be a pathway so that my 629 shares can make to the otherside(privatization).

Dude, I’m on you side. It wasn’t criticism. Find a way. Otherwise, I’ll hope that Elon finds a way so that you can, but it’s not his intent to ‘force’ you out.

 

[bdy0627]

I’m a few pages behind, hard to keep up but all the stock movement talk got me thinking.

What would keep a big fish from setting up a long straddle, then shorting a large sum of shares quickly to push the stock down. Once stock is pushed down, sell put side of straddle. Once that is closed, reverse the process by buying back shares to raise the stock price then closing out the calls?

Hmm, I just realized the straddle would be a waste, just buy the options before you push the stock in that direction and reverse, make more money.

Seems they could play this game all day, every day.

They have been. This is one reason Elon is taking TSLA private.

 

[avoigt]

I think Tesla doesn't need to go private right now. Because Tesla will be profitable going forward and noise that shorts are making like bankruptcy,demand problem, profitability, cash burn etc. all of this will disappear in next 6-9 months. At least half of shorts will cover. Only argument left with remaining shorts will be valuation and competition is coming. Also Tesla will have sufficient room to manoeuvre it's growth because of cash flow.
Being public was distraction when Tesla was making losses and ramping production where bears will come and hit. But now as all the hard work is being done and I don't think going forward Tesla will struggle in ramping production for other models to extent they struggled given their experience.Also in Q3 Tesla revenue will be 7.4 billion that will be 150% growth that is really fast growth on very big base and Tesla doesn't need to grow faster than that.

Now was time to show to world Tesla can produce and be profitable. In fact going private can in fact be distraction for next 6-9 months given all the litigation and complex process involved.

Allow me to politely disagree.

Since I watch Tesla which is about 2013 the FUD came out and never stopped. I cannot count the times I did read here or elsewhere that we achieved a new peak level of unprecedented FUD. It just continued and will not end.

Your thesis is that it will stop once Tesla his profitability be it in Q3 or Q4 or later. I believe the FUD will not stop and continue as long as the Oil Industrie including all other associated corporations, companies and individuals who benefit from burning Oil, Gas or Cole directly or indirectly will be either out of business or switched over to our camp. FUD may even intensify with people lost their fortune, home or job.

To get to the point where FUD is about to end Elon, his company and us need to fight decades, likely 1-2 generations. Thats time and resource consuming.

I was thinking profoundly about the pros and cons of Tesla going private and am today despite my initial reaction ( Nooooooooooo!) very much in favor of going private. Only hard restriction: I want to be a shareholder of the private company as well.

If you think about it, Tesla will bring soon many new products to market, many will have production delays or quality issues and they need cash to build about 3 GFs at once.

Do we really believe just because Tesla is profitable in Q3 that all of those challenges will find applause from the Oil industry and their army of Shorts, Bears and FUDsters supported by the media for ad $s? I don't.

I want Tesla to build 3 GF asap in 3 continents and get the Y and Semi out as well as the Pickup despite all odds and market noise. That will not be an easy ride. Lets go and occupy this market.The way to do it is not eliminate the financial influence of people who want to bring Tesla down.

They would be very happy to pay next week $ 70bn to eliminate the treat and burry the dream of EVs and decentralized energy grids powered by renewable energy and batteries.That would be a cheap win for them.

Our so called "free markets" or financial system is not that free or fair as we would like it to be. If enough money is behind the shorts than they can bring Tesla down be it now or later regardless of great demand, great products and being good for Mother Earth and humankind as such. Thats true as long as you give them the option.

This people are like the idiot that is cutting the branch he sits on smiling in joy in anticipation of the fruits taste he can almost smell hanging at the end of the branch but don't comprehend that he will fall down breaking his neck.

 

[neroden]

In this case, you are misreading the news, not the shorts.

neroden is the only one reporting that Musk has lined up funding from one or two large investors. The Bloomberg article cited says no such thing.

I should be clear: I'm speculating. Because there's a lot of evidence that they're trying to find more investors, but Musk already has funding lined up -- which means that he probably has it lined up from *fewer distinct investors than he would like*.

 

[neroden]

I was thinking profoundly about the pros and cons of Tesla going private and am today despite my initial reaction ( Nooooooooooo!) very much in favor of going private. Only hard restriction: I want to be a shareholder of the private company as well.

The completely bonkers reaction of the stock market to the announcement -- by all rights, based on how it usually reacts to such announcements, the stock should have headed to $400+ and stayed there -- is solid evidence that Tesla *should* go private.

Like avoigt, I don't want Tesla to go private, but if this sort of insane BS won't let up even when there's a buyout offer on the table, I think it's clearly better for Tesla to delist from the stock market at least.

I hope they delist from the stock market, restrict trading in the stock, and stay "public" for SEC reporting purposes; I don't see any downsides to that.

 

[neroden]

If you are a US shareholder and are not an accredited investor the worst thing you can do for yourself is have the shares issued into your name. You will have assured getting bought out. You cannot participate in a private offering.

I am accredited, though.

 

[dondy]

current stock price is best argument of why Tesla has nothing to search in public market.
Instead of looking at company fundamentals or if too stupid looking at the major investors
(presence of Price T Row as a major investor would be a sufficient test for anybody barely sane) most of "investors" jump around like crazy or keep waiting for more chewed second hand mash on their plates. The current situation with Tesla is just another indication that most of the Wall Street money are speculators money and don't participate in investment cycles.

 

[Krugerrand]

Musk is equally capable of being overoptimistic about the commitment and enthusiasm of his potential buyers as he is about anything else.

It's his nature. He's an optimistic person. We need to keep this in mind.

When has he been over optimistic about potential investors to take his company private? That’s rhetorical.

When has he been over optimistic about getting any kind of funding for anything Tesla was going to do, is doing? That’s also rhetorical.

Don’t conflate his optimism about impossible vehicle launch timelines and AP abilities and such with what’s happening now. Totally different. This is about what’s good for his company and the path forward. He never messes around in that department.

I have no idea what he’s cooked up, but he’s a bloody wizard and I’ve no doubt he has funding secured. He got Panasonic to partner, kicking and screaming the whole way. He got the Gigafactory deal. He just got CHINA!!!! to allow him 100% ownership of Chinese Gigafactory and Vehicle Mfging - the FIRST of its kind, EVER!! He’s bought companies, merged Solar City, paid back DOE loan way, way early. He’s now told Wallstreet to stick their money where the sun don’t shine and every indication so far is that he meant it and has a path forward without them. And you think he might be over optimistic about funding secured to take his company private? That’s a mistake if you believe that.

 

[neroden]

Why someone would like to get like 10% ownership with 420, when he can get 10% ownership with 355 from stock markets? E.g. Saudis got 3-5% from open market without major stock move.

When you hit 5% you have to announce your position and declare your intentions. It gets a lot harder, legally, to increase ownership past that without making a tender offer.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Firstly, there are about 200,000,000 shares of TSLA out there, so this investor represents just a tad over 1% of Tesla.

its a tad over 0.1%. further emphasising your point.

 

[Matias]

When you hit 5% you have to announce your position and declare your intentions. It gets a lot harder, legally, to increase ownership past that without making a tender offer.

It is true that that 5% reporting limit can cause price to jump.

 

[Sudre]

420 is a joke, real offer will be in the low 500's.

Actually as of right now that is a really good price. Tesla does not have to take a bid on a fictional price base sometime in the unknown distant future. They have to pick a fair price that they receive from other bids. The shorts think it's worth $0. You think it's worth $520. Others think something less than $3000. The reality is right now it's $350ish. You and I feel the $420 price is too low for sure. I agree. I think it is much higher so I am buying every chance I can get but not using margin so I have to do bits as money clears.