TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

Well that was much ado about not much...

 

[LeDragon]

Elon's email from 2013 re SpaceX going public vs remaining private. Great perspective and insights to Elon's thinking on Tesla going private:
Elon's Email to SpaceX Employees Regarding Taking The Company Public

 

[phil0909]

There was a quote from an M&A lawyer in one of the ArsTechnica articles which said that that an oral commitment is ALL you need to say "funding secured". I would tend to believe the opinion of an M&A lawyer regarding the technical meaning of "funding secured".

Elon also tweeted this: "Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote."

What does the M&A lawyer think is needed to support this later tweet? "Certain" except for shareholder vote - that was a powerful statement, and it has not been backed up. Has it?

 

[Boomer19]

as of 7/31
short interest is 34,989,543
with avg daily volume 6.79m
ratio 5.154

 

[phil0909]

IMO his tweeting is two-fold. Firstly, it was to generate buying pressure, both by the long investors who believe in the mission and want to go private with Tesla as well as the Saudi's (ask yourself why they would buy shares for 420$ or whatever premium is to your liking, when they can buy at 350$). As for the shorts, well they don't really matter, the tweet was never meant to spook them because its already so heavily divided in that longs will go to war with Elon, and shorts will say whatever will make him appear in a negative light. Second was to get the conversation away from the company itself so that negative news about the company falling about, which obviously isn't the case, would stop being run daily. Also analysts still do not expect a profitable Tesla, so that's really going to be a big positive surprise.

So your position is that Elon's intentions were:

1. stock price manipulation, and
2. distraction of attention from Company operations and results.

Are you sure you're on Elon's side here?

 

[Lessmog]

I’m failing to see the downside here. In the unlikely event that the privatization falls through, we still have a company now producing around 6,000 cars per week and projecting profits in the second half. We are right where we were after the earnings call, and it’s all good.

Don't forget the older models. 8k/wk S3X is even better, no?

 

[Open Interest]

Don't forget the older models. 8k/wk S3X is even better, no?

You’re right, of course. I should have specified Model 3.

 

[wipster]

GAH.. missed todays low before noon. Got 50 shares at $358.01. Sall good. Im in for the long haul.

Saul Good man... hmm, where have I heard THAT before? In fact, I think it's on tonight! Love that show.

 

[phil0909]

From Elon’s blog post this morning: “During the meeting, the Managing Director of the fund expressed regret that I had not moved forward previously on a going private transaction with them, and he strongly expressed his support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla at this time.”

What exactly does expressing regret mean in this context and why did Elon mention it? If you read between the lines, it could mean that the Saudis are threatening a hostile take over. Ie. We would prefer to work with you to buy a big stake, but if you continue to ignore us, we will regretfully have to do it the hard way.

No. That is just Elon making his case that funding really was 'secured'. There's absolutely nothing between the lines here.

 

[wipster]

Elon's email from 2013 re SpaceX going public vs remaining private. Great perspective and insights to Elon's thinking on Tesla going private:
Elon's Email to SpaceX Employees Regarding Taking The Company Public

Wow! Thanks for posting! Other than the values, this could have been written last week and it really summarizes the reason Tesla should now go private if at all possible. Elon was being a bit prescient when he wrote this and I'm sure he feels the same now, if not even more. I'm sure the SpaceX employees/owners are glad they stayed private...

 

[bdy0627]

My take on the last couple of days of trading is that $360 is very clearly a battleground level. It will likely take some serious volume to remain above that level. It's not just going to drift there.

 

[KarenRei]

If this is the Saudis buying on the open market they're somehow doing a good job keeping the price depressed (you know what's better than buying TSLA @420? Buying TSLA @358)

Newest conspiracy theory: Montana Skeptic wasn't actually a New York fund manager. He was actually Prince Mohammed bin Salman, working to keep the stock price down to help enable their buyout. His disappearance in July was due to the Saudis completing the buyout; the "doxxing" was the Saudis' work as well, and Musk decided to play along so as not to upset a potential party to a buyout.

Where's Alex Jones when you need him?

 

[matejpi]

My thoughts about last few Trading days:

1. Let's assume Elon spoke the truth, when he tweeted "funding secured".
2. He set the stock price 420 $
3. Now the existing investors and future private stock holders are keeping the stock price around current value (355 $) only to justify the set price (if someone wants to buy a stake in compay must offer a premium price...) by buying and selling among themselves...

I think that we are not going to see rapid stock appreciations as we all hoped, but rather a boring price alterations in range +-1%, until the buyout is completed.

 

[lklundin]

I think the answer is that for a lot of people, a potential 20% gain is not worth the uncertainty and volatility that comes with thyis scenario.

I consider the 20% gain a worst case scenario and does not mind some volatility along the way.

 

[Boomer19]

My take on the last couple of days of trading is that $360 is very clearly a battleground level. It will likely take some serious volume to remain above that level. It's not just going to drift there.

maybe the intent is sucking the life out of all the short term derivatives plays

 

[sundaymorning]

Vin registration now at 98,400. We are about to break 100,000. Shorts are screwed whichever way they choose.

 

[lklundin]

Here comes our big dumper, right as expected as the stock tries to climb above $360 selling relentlessly. Same as Friday and a few other times last week.

Someone does not want to see TSLA above $360.

I have to wonder who has shares to sell in apparently large chunks at a loss of $60+ per share.

 

[Zythryn]

Where's Alex Jones when you need him?

I hear he is posting up a storm over on Myspace

 

[oneday]

I think that we are not going to see rapid stock appreciations as we all hoped, but rather a boring price alterations in range +-1%, until the buyout is completed.

I give what you are saying a +-1% chance of being true.

Right now everything is tentative, in consideration, and an exploration of options. Sure, we are very likely to stay flat during this period.

This process is going to go through many steps. As each step is completed, likelihood of a buyout increases. Stock price should reflect this likelihood.

 

[Jayjs20]

l hope the price crashes. I'm coming into a large sum of money at the end of the week.