TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Johan]

So... No volume? All positions have been taken (short/long) and people are waiting for the next piece of news? This thin volume suggests at least that no big players are trying to buy more stock on the open market.

 

[Unpilot]

3.5 million is not really thin...but I get your point. It seems sideways we will go for a while.

 

[Zythryn]

I'm glad the Saudis are trying to move toward clean energy, but is Elon so desperate to go private that he has to solicit their funding?

I believe you have that backwards. The SWF solicited Musk. They had been raising this idea for a couple years.

 

[ggr]

Do you guys know some examples of companies that put in place a "special purpose fund" ?

SAIC before it IPOd. This was, I believe, the largest privately held company at the time (but I could be misremembering).

 

[theschnell]

I don't think Elon intends for the Saudi's to have too big of a stake. The reality is that they have started accumulating so they forced his hand.

I would have thought there would be plenty of US private equity investors willing to help Musk take Tesla private, and perhaps Musk made the same assumption and is now finding that assumption to be not as easy to back with reality. So he may be forced to work with the Saudi's since at this point that's all he has.

Hopefully he can keep the majority of current shareholders as well as pull in a few new ones before this deal closes.

I still think he's created a huge mess, but luckily this isn't his first rodeo. I think he'll figure a way out of this.

I think in hindsight, his "funding secured" tweet was a huge mistake. Another opportunity to live and learn. I think the Saudi's verbal offers to take Tesla private are real and will keep him out of deep trouble with the SEC, but since when do you say "funding secured" on a verbal offer for a 70 billion plus deal? To me, "funding secured" should be far more than verbal offers, or even vague offers in writing. "Funding secured" should be a specific offer in writing such as "We can offer up to XX billion in financing to take Tesla private".

Dude needs to think twice before he tweets...

 

[Unpilot]

I don't think Elon intends for the Saudi's to have too big of a stake. The reality is that they have started accumulating so they forced his hand.

I would have thought there would be plenty of US private equity investors willing to help Musk take Tesla private, and perhaps Musk made the same assumption and is now finding that assumption to be not as easy to back with reality. So he may be forced to work with the Saudi's since at this point that's all he has.

Hopefully he can keep the majority of current shareholders as well as pull in a few new ones before this deal closes.

I still think he's created a huge mess, but luckily this isn't his first rodeo. I think he'll figure a way out of this.

I think in hindsight, his "funding secured" tweet was a huge mistake. Another opportunity to live and learn. I think the Saudi's verbal offers to take Tesla private are real and will keep him out of deep trouble with the SEC, but since when do you say "funding secured" on a verbal offer for a 70 billion plus deal? To me, "funding secured" should be far more than verbal offers, or even vague offers in writing. "Funding secured" should be a specific offer in writing such as "We can offer up to XX billion in financing to take Tesla private".

Dude needs to think twice before he tweets...

Maybe...just maybe He assumes people are as honest as he is....hard to believe I know.

 

[TNEVol]

Yes, I realize this. On the other hand, owning TSLA has for me been more than just normal investing. It's been part of my show of support for Tesla, and that has had an emotional component.

Would you feel the same way about Norway's soverign fund which is used to hedge oil as I understand it? I understand the human right differences but what is wrong with an oil economy recognizing that it is soon going to be faced with a future witout oil?

 

[Xorbit]

Do you guys know some examples of companies that put in place a "special purpose fund" ?

You've probably never hear of them, but back in 2016, along with more than a hundred retail investors, I bought equity in an SPV, which in turn bought an equity stake in MaidSafe via the Bktothefuture platform. So I think it's definitely possible, though if I recall, for this kind of Special Purpose Vehicle, US-based investors had to be be accredited.
MaidSafe Announces Equity Funding Round on BnktotheFuture

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 325507

Maybe he was making eggs?

 

[Ulmo]

So he may be forced to work with the Saudi's since at this point that's all he has.

I actually think it's a case of follow the leader; there may be some bandwaggon jumpers who go along for the ride that wouldn't have otherwise. MbS is a natural leader, and there are probably now lots of billionaires coming out of the woodwork trying to get a piece of the pie that wouldn't if Tesla was a publicly traded stock that just moves around like the stupid East Coast traders want. There could be private investors lining up right now. The stock price upside (~2x to 3x or so in a decade, and that's somewhat optimistic AND somewhat conservative) is muted compared to some of Tesla's competitors (since their SP's haven't been reflecting such potentials like Tesla's already has), but none of Tesla's competitors are at the same stage as Tesla is right now and none of them seem that obviously serious just yet (lots of announcements have come to nothing), so it's impossible to pick one of them. Tesla is the only one in this market segment with this much going on.

 

[TNEVol]

I think in hindsight, his "funding secured" tweet was a huge mistake. Another opportunity to live and learn. I think the Saudi's verbal offers to take Tesla private are real and will keep him out of deep trouble with the SEC, but since when do you say "funding secured" on a verbal offer for a 70 billion plus deal? To me, "funding secured" should be far more than verbal offers, or even vague offers in writing. "Funding secured" should be a specific offer in writing such as "We can offer up to XX billion in financing to take Tesla private".

Dude needs to think twice before he tweets...

As I recall it doesn't need 70B but more likely no more tha 30B.

 

[ZeApelido]

Of course I'm just musing, but I feel like Musk is very intentional in his feeding of bits of news crumbs about a deal, allowing some (incorrect) perception of erratic / illegal which actually lets him use the negative media bias as a weapon against shorts, by keeping them holding their positions until the last possible moment. If so, would truly be a savvy move.

 

[loky]

Some shorts are "tiptoeing quietly to the exit ..."

TSLA short interest:

Ihor Dusaniwsky twitter

 

[avoigt]

Yes, I realize this. On the other hand, owning TSLA has for me been more than just normal investing. It's been part of my show of support for Tesla, and that has had an emotional component.

The very core of Elons mission is to force the oil & gas & auto industry to invest on a large scale into EVs and sustainable energy generation & distribution. This is because Tesla can't do it all alone and they are urgently needed to transform into a sustainable model that the world needs so badly.

Now as one of the largest funds globally of that industry is changing course intending to invest into Tesla and EVs supporting Elons vision you are saying you feeling less enthusiastic to be invested ?

To be honest for me it is exactly the other way around. I feel encouraged! We need the entire oil&gas&auto industry to realize that the better invest in regenerative energy, EVs and battery technology. Not only because its better for the world but also because its a better ROI.

The sooner the better.

 

[Causalien]

I share your ethical concerns, but I ask you (as I ask myself): what else can you do to "fight" people who literally sit on mountains of billions? Capitalism and public market are all about "openness" to money, and who has more money usually wins: this is the law of the jungle.

I pondering what other solutions are there for Elon regarding Saudis... and I don't find an answer other than "make them do something good with their money".
If you don't want an hostile takeover, what can you do to fight it? Dilute their position asking all others to join is a great move, probably the only one on the table right now.

There was no way for Elon to create a massive company, big enough to disrupt the whole energy sector, without going public in the fist place (he needed the money); thus, there was no way for him to be succesful without attracting unwanted attention for the world's most powerful (and wicked).
I think this is the situation we are in, and the TSLAP solution is probably one of the best ones available.
Tell me if I'm missing something.

You are right.

 

[theschnell]

Some shorts are "tiptoeing quietly to the exit ..."

TSLA short interest:

Ihor Dusaniwsky twitter

If shorts are covering but price is not rising, some longs must be quietly exiting as well...

 

[lklundin]

If shorts are covering but price is not rising, some longs must be quietly exiting as well...

Maybe the short's FUD is working and causing some weak longs to exit.

 

[loky]

If shorts are covering but price is not rising, some longs must be quietly exiting as well...

It is very very simplified view...
What do you think, what percentage of TSLA daily trading is based on borrowed shares?

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe the short's FUD is working and causing some weak longs to exit.

Not sure why any weak long would exit now, because as we stand it's $420 to get out before private or we stay public and continue as we were, maybe with a few less shorts.

And as things were, we were going fine. M3 ramp was looking good. Rave reviews. I really think the short squeeze was looking more and more likely.

So I'm also of the opinion that Elon's hand was forced by the knowledge of SA's PIF having bought a big stake and he felt he needed to head-off a potential hostile bid.

But yeah, it's a mess right now and I'm personally very stressed with the whole affair.

 

[Causalien]

If shorts are covering but price is not rising, some longs must be quietly exiting as well...

YA, KSA brings about a lot of ethical concerns. If die hards like us are taking a step back. The more recent starry eyed younger investors might have bailed already. Sentiment on reddit's teslamotor forum seem to be negative on KSA. So I guess many small retails are bailing right now.