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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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After all, it's the fundamentals that matter, and there's growing evidence that 6k/wk Model 3 is in the bag.

You make the right points that early on, choosing to fund one more incremental engineer or manager vs. a PR person could make the difference between life and death for a startup. But we're well past that point now, and as the last two weeks show, life and death here on out could be in large part driven by who controls the narrative. Tesla isn't even at the table at this point.

Wait.. what?
 
Wait.. what?
Yeah, fair point and thanks for following up on why you disagreed. I appreciate that.

What I was trying to say, fractured and in-eloquent as it was, is that the stock price _should_ be controlled by the fundamentals, they are what matter and looking better and better with each passing week, but right now too much is being driven by the narrative, a narrative that Tesla isn't helping shape. A competent PR department would be out there working to steer the message back to the fundamentals. 6k/wk. Gross margin positive on Model 3. GAAP positive for Q3.

When we saw Tesla the company in control of the narrative at the annual shareholders meeting and again at the Q2 earnings call, the stock adjusted upwards accordingly. When Tesla the company is absent, the narrative inevitably devolves to things not related to fundamentals and the stock drops.
 
I love how Justin Pulitzer sees through the media B.S., and he doesn't even follow Tesla like we do. He focuses on technicals. Take a look at this exchange as someone tries to get him interested in some media FUD about "breaking news" on Tesla:

@LizClaman
Headlines are breaking right now on @Tesla and the stock is moving off its earlier floor. $TSLA asking for rebates from suppliers but says it's got millions in cash on books. @CGasparino w/more in mins, tune in NOW

@JustinPulitzer
Any good CEO should be squeezing suppliers for discounts. $AAPL does it all the time. Why wouldn't $TSLA? Media is so dumb. They should try working in the real world for a bit, might just make them better reporters & people IMHO.
 
Tangential anecdote:
I spoke to a woman who had been on a trip to South Africa earlier this year. They went on a safari-type tour with a group of other tourists. One of them, a lady from Chicago apparently, asked what rhinos eat. -"Well, they are herbivores!" -"Yes, but I mean for main course? Look, obviously giraffes can catch birds up there in the treetops for a real meal, but what do rhinos have for dinner?"
That lady seemed a little disorganized in other ways too, I was told.

But maybe the quest for answers is over, eh? ;)
Yes, way way off topic BUT:
Wow! I’ve had that lady on my tours about a dozen times over the past 25 years!
 
I love how Justin Pulitzer sees through the media B.S., and he doesn't even follow Tesla like we do. He focuses on technicals. Take a look at this exchange as someone tries to get him interested in some media FUD about "breaking news" on Tesla:

@LizClaman
Headlines are breaking right now on @Tesla and the stock is moving off its earlier floor. $TSLA asking for rebates from suppliers but says it's got millions in cash on books. @CGasparino w/more in mins, tune in NOW

@JustinPulitzer
Any good CEO should be squeezing suppliers for discounts. $AAPL does it all the time. Why wouldn't $TSLA? Media is so dumb. They should try working in the real world for a bit, might just make them better reporters & people IMHO.
I know I've said this before, but man I love that Pulitzer guy. Someone should give him a prize.
 
A competent PR department would be out there working to steer the message back to the fundamentals.

A competent PR department would probably be wise to stay mostly silent at this stage.

The main reason mass media is having a field day at the expense of Tesla is not the lack of message discipline.

I submit it's in large part because GM, Ford and Volkswagen are amongst the top 5 advertisers in almost every market, while Tesla isn't giving a single cent to the media.

So those advertisers are being handled with kid gloves, while Tesla is open season:
  • VW possibly killing thousands of asthmatics globally through poison gas emissions? It's not cold blooded murder, fraud and RICO conspiracy for profits, it's a "cheating" scandal as if it was some high school love triangle...
  • A single Tesla catching fire? Days long news cycle. Tesla CEO under stress to save the planet? Not a hero but an addict, unstable, unfit!
The double standard is nauseating - and a PR agency would probably only fan the flames by giving the FUD an air of credibility through standard denials...
 
I agree with this. Tesla would benefit from having a few (or a few more?) competent PR people to help shape the narrative. There should have been someone sitting with Elon as he did the NYT interview, to step in when things got off message. There should have been people insisting on reviewing the NYT article before it went to print as terms and conditions for granting an interview. There should have been people actively refuting FUD on the record as it got published. There should have been no need for "sources that are familiar with..." because Tesla PR/IR should have been available for on-the-record quotes.

You make the right points that early on, choosing to fund one more incremental engineer or manager vs. a PR person could make the difference between life and death for a startup. But we're well past that point now, and as the last two weeks show, life and death here on out could be in large part driven by who controls the narrative. Tesla isn't even at the table at this point.
It does seem so obvious now after these last two weeks. Unfortunately, this isn't the first time this "force shield" to protect Tesla's best interest should have been deployed. It may be a twitter worthy request that shouldn't hit Elon quite as offensively as Arianna's letter. Although, it should be the boards doing, after all, who took the brunt of it this time but the shareholders.
I do have to ask though, does such a position exist for the competition? I suppose they've never needed one quite like Tesla does though.
 
A competent PR department would probably be wise to stay mostly silent at this stage.

The main reason mass media is having a field day at the expense of Tesla is not the lack of message discipline.

I submit it's in large part because GM, Ford and Volkswagen are amongst the top 5 advertisers in almost every market, while Tesla isn't giving a single cent to the media.

So those advertisers are being handled with kid gloves, while Tesla is open season:
  • VW possibly killing thousands of asthmatics globally through poison gas emissions? It's not cold blooded murder, fraud and RICO conspiracy for profits, it's a "cheating" scandal as if it was some high school love triangle...
  • A single Tesla catching fire? Days long news cycle. Tesla CEO under stress to save the planet? Not a hero but an addict, unstable, unfit!
The double standard is nauseating - and a PR agency would probably only fan the flames by giving the FUD an air of credibility through standard denials...

yeah and they know before anyone else about how bad they are getting busted up by model 3 sales right now, so better to make tesla look as dumb and desperate as possible so when they step up next qtr, they only look half as assed as they are for lagging behind for years
 
Good point, and I think a lot of longs probably feel like idiots after adding a couple of weeks ago after Elon's announcement. No one is feeling very smart now about buying TSLA at $360+. Truth is, there was reason to believe the movie might not play out the same way it has over and over for the last year and a half. But, it did.

I more than doubled my long position after the market reopened after the tweet, so I have a lot at $360+. However I don’t feel like an idiot. Had I waited, I would probably not bought as much as I had (yeah, makes no sense, but then I never said I was logical). At any rate, I feel fine and will just ride it out for the next several years. I have little doubt I’ll make money.
 
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