TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Joe F]

Our spike seller just showed back up. The stock had just crossed above $306, going positive, and they dumped 200k shares in a single tick to try to make sure it didn't end positive for the day.

Not sure about that. It corresponded to a Dow Jones popup on Fidelity citing a WSJ report, stating 16 suppliers were filing mechanics liens due to non payments, and also the recent report of "cash back" or rebates Tesla requested. Headline of FUD popup:

Some Tesla Suppliers Are Concerned About Tesla's Financial Footing, Survey of Industry Executives Shows

 

[avoigt]

That was just like when there were parking lots full of Model 3s and "they" were saying that was bad, and now that the lots are empty "they" are saying that this is bad also.

I think what they are trying to say is that its bad that there is a Tesla parking lot at all ...

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Our spike seller just showed back up. The stock had just crossed above $306, going positive, and they dumped 200k shares in a single tick to try to make sure it didn't end positive for the day.

Yes! Doesn't look like it worked. There's enough buying interest today, likely institutional, buying the dips.

 

[mekberg]

Green?!

 

[jelloslug]

Not sure about that. It corresponded to a Dow Jones popup on Fidelity citing a WSJ report, stating 16 suppliers were filing mechanics liens due to non payments, and also the recent report of "cash back" or rebates Tesla requested. Headline of FUD popup:

Some Tesla Suppliers Are Concerned About Tesla's Financial Footing, Survey of Industry Executives Shows

Are they the same mechanics liens from months ago that were for facilities related services?

 

[omarsultan]

Did anybody else notice the latest 'hit em while their down" piece by Gelles titled, "Tesla Slashes Spending, and May Add to Its Troubles"?
It seems Tesla's damned if they do and damned if they don't. At the cost of profitability, Tesla's investment in their future fell on deaf ears to the rallying cry, "but they can't turn a profit". Now that they've focused on turning the tables and slowing down growth to show profitability, they complain that, "those tactics may not be sustainable for long, and some could even hurt the company down the road."
Just can't win.

I am going to fault Tesla here a bit on this. The company has famously underinvested in marketing and communications. I am not taking issue with that decision all that much--they had no immediate need and as a startup, you gotta keep a handle on SG&A--I would much rather they burn headcount on a software engineer than on a marketing manager. However, the downstream impact of that underinvestment is they appear to lack any seasoned marketing and communications bench strength. Because they don't have marcom folks that have gone through the crucible to building and defending messaging for the company, I think they find themselves in a position now where they don't have the expertise or relationships to control or at least influence the narrative. To me, the NYT interview is a prime example. My Apple News feed sure seems like open season on Elon and Tesla. Perhaps the strategy is to hunker down and let the Q3 numbers to the talking, and it's not an unreasonable approach, but is sure takes it toll on everyone involved.

 

[Boomer19]

I can say this without fear of jinxing it, because this looks like things are bottoming out. Overall, the drop today has been minimal, despite the heavy FUD campaign and serious price capping effort. Based on the high volume, it looks like people are buying the dip. It's kind of funny to watch the stock at the last minutes before closing and seeing how much effort is being put to close in the red. In a few weeks, in won't make a d@mn bit of difference.

we went through a phase where EOD is sellingC then it turns to buying. hopefully we hold a closing buying pattern for a while

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Remarkable. Despite all the FUD over the weekend, opening into a $18 drop, the relentless slew of negative articles today, and the return of our spike seller, we closed up for the day. That is an epic turnaround.

That said, bottoming is a process, so we'll need to see how the next day or two go. But overall, this is a very positive sign that could drive some smart(ish) shorts to start covering to lock in recent profits, and more institutional money coming back in.

After all, it's the fundamentals that matter, and there's growing evidence that 6k/wk Model 3 is in the bag.

 

[Causalien]

Green hammer is formed. We are not out of the danger. A couple more day of this and the danger of the island reversal will disappear.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Chop110]

Not sure about that. It corresponded to a Dow Jones popup on Fidelity citing a WSJ report, stating 16 suppliers were filing mechanics liens due to non payments, and also the recent report of "cash back" or rebates Tesla requested. Headline of FUD popup:

Some Tesla Suppliers Are Concerned About Tesla's Financial Footing, Survey of Industry Executives Shows

Haha! Well played FUDsters, ten minutes before close. I smell desperation.

 

[hellnoICE]

Did anybody else notice the latest 'hit em while their down" piece by Gelles titled, "Tesla Slashes Spending, and May Add to Its Troubles"?
It seems Tesla's damned if they do and damned if they don't. At the cost of profitability, Tesla's investment in their future fell on deaf ears to the rallying cry, "but they can't turn a profit". Now that they've focused on turning the tables and slowing down growth to show profitability, they complain that, "those tactics may not be sustainable for long, and some could even hurt the company down the road."
Just can't win.

Oh noes, Tesla stopped burning cash...

 

[sundaymorning]

View attachment 327253

Thanks for this. It always gives me a good laugh. Judging by the price action it looks as though the weaker longs are out, and buyers are starting to snatch up the good deals. Let’s see if we get a dead cat bounce.

 

[Joe F]

Are they the same mechanics liens from months ago that were for facilities related services?

Yep, but it felt as if some alto's picked up on it and fired off. Just odd that it was in lock-step timing wise.

 

[mekberg]

Thanks for this. It always gives me a good laugh. Judging by the price action it looks as though the weaker longs are out, and buyers are starting to snatch up the good deals. Let’s see if we get a dead cat bounce.

I sold my entire position in TLRY @ $24 (bought IPO at $21) to all-in TSLA after Elon's "go private" tweet. Still stings a bit especially after today.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I am going to fault Tesla here a bit on this. The company has famously underinvested in marketing and communications. I am not taking issue with that decision all that much--they had no immediate need and as a startup, you gotta keep a handle on SG&A--I would much rather they burn headcount on a software engineer than on a marketing manager. However, the downstream impact of that underinvestment is they appear to lack any seasoned marketing and communications bench strength. Because they don't have marcom folks that have gone through the crucible to building and defending messaging for the company, I think they find themselves in a position now where they don't have the expertise or relationships to control or at least influence the narrative. To me, the NYT interview is a prime example. My Apple News feed sure seems like open season on Elon and Tesla. Perhaps the strategy is to hunker down and let the Q3 numbers to the talking, and it's not an unreasonable approach, but is sure takes it toll on everyone involved.

I agree with this. Tesla would benefit from having a few (or a few more?) competent PR people to help shape the narrative. There should have been someone sitting with Elon as he did the NYT interview, to step in when things got off message. There should have been people insisting on reviewing the NYT article before it went to print as terms and conditions for granting an interview. There should have been people actively refuting FUD on the record as it got published. There should have been no need for "sources that are familiar with..." because Tesla PR/IR should have been available for on-the-record quotes.

You make the right points that early on, choosing to fund one more incremental engineer or manager vs. a PR person could make the difference between life and death for a startup. But we're well past that point now, and as the last two weeks show, life and death here on out could be in large part driven by who controls the narrative. Tesla isn't even at the table at this point.

 

[bdy0627]

Since you've "lost" on this buy, you can sell it now and call a loss
or you can wait for 8K and go in with minimal losses, or sell to shorts and get your investment integrally back. It's not over and it's not that long time to wait.

What Musk said in interview to NYT we don't know because NYT didn't tell anything of substance.

The point isn't that this is paper loss right now, so hold tight. That's obvious I would hope. The point is that those who bought at $360+ because of the announcement probably would not have bought up so high otherwise. That money would have been much better deployed now than then, as is the usual pattern with Tesla. The tweet shifted even TSLA veterans into buying high (but not selling low.)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I wasn't kidding. More dry powder for Monday. HLOC to the rescue!

View attachment 326865

Well, I was too timid today, but still snapped some...

 

[bdy0627]

so the board must have spoken at least a couple or more times since this whole epic initiated...
i doubt we’d get any news/leaks from the ongoings, but you never know (jpm already said/speculated there was nothing to the original 420 privatization offer)

what do we expect next?

will there be anymore news with motive of intent? or will everything from here on out be an actual proposal that will then be subject to a proxy vote and subsequent offer letter, and filing??

thoughts?

My speculation is that if Elon and the board are actually meeting with the SEC this week, they will not communicate anything further until after that. Maybe something next week?

 

[Fact Checking]

Yep, but it felt as if some algo's picked up on it and fired off. Just odd that it was in lock-step timing wise.

(You meant algo's, right? Fixed it in the quote.)

To me it looked like a fat finger trade: single ticket trade that cut through the book like a hot knife through butter: all the way from a $306 breakout down to $301 with a 200k shares order. Price recovered within minutes.

Few algos would do that, they'd be aware of the available liquidity in the order book.

There was over a million dollars of inefficiency in this single trade. (Whoever was selling could have ridden the breakout.)

Might have been a hasty console trader reaction to that news popup?