TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Causalien]

That one particular transaction ties in about 0.26% of the house. Toronto prices and all that...

Yes, that is correct. Only one contract today.
Effective price of TSLA share, if I have to buy in Jan 20 is $420-$151 = $269.
Happened at about SP $295, TD took 7 minutes to review and approve transaction. Quite annoying. I advise _against_ TD Direct in Canada.

Just check your cash flow. Interest rate is forecasted to go up by 1% in 12 months.
Also, you should switch to Thinkorswim if you are trading this often. It is still with TD, but better platform.

 

[Johan]

1. 870 replies6,976 retweets42,569 likes
   
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   Marques Brownlee‏Verified account @MKBHD 12m12 minutes ago
   Uploading…
   
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   Marques Brownlee‏Verified account @MKBHD 7h7 hours ago
   Coming soon to a sub box near you...
   
   
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check out the latest video from MKBHD
Elon looks just fine

Thx for the head-up. Good video. Yeah he looks very much on top of things, first principles reasoning as usual. "Could we up the torque settings on that wrench" (to save half a second on a screw). That's how you speed up production.

 

[Johan]

Also watch this especially from 1.33

 

[shlokavica22]

The option will continue to have an extrinsic value up until the day of expiration.

Normally yes, however the leap options around $420 and above are anything but normal after Elon's tweet. The extrinsic value is all over the place since then.

 

[Fact Checking]

As to your second point, I know it's popular to claim sales (advertising) influences the editorial side.

If as journalist you write a negative article about a major advertiser, your boss is almost certainly going to hear from them. At top newspapers he'll most likely going to shield you, but if your article turns out to be wrong, your job is likely on the line.

That's common sense and enough of a force to cause self-censorship and CYA caution.

With Tesla? Nobody is going to complain to your boss! No well-connected lobbyist is going to pull strings, or call college friends or call in favors with editors to ... ask you to tone down the message a bit.

You can finally show what a kick-ass reporter you really are, if given the opportunity!

 

[tivoboy]

That one particular transaction ties in about 0.26% of the house. Toronto prices and all that...

Yes, that is correct. Only one contract today.
Effective price of TSLA share, if I have to buy in Jan 20 is $420-$151 = $269.
Happened at about SP $295, TD took 7 minutes to review and approve transaction. Quite annoying. I advise _against_ TD Direct in Canada.

So, do you know what happens with puts sold if say a sale(or take private) of the company occurs prior to this event horizon? I know with purchased calls depending on ITM or not, there is a conversion, not so sure about Puts.

I'm wondering who is on the other side of this transaction that they would effectively be betting that there will be a liquid equity here with a LESS than $269 share price (to break even). That's a lot of TVM for them to put out.

Could be someone trying to lock in 269$ guaranteed out till jan2020.

 

[tslagreen]

I would consider holding some back till we let this ride out a bit. Well certainly have the oppty to buy at a lower price from here.

I am glad I didn't listen to your advice.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Seems like there's a federal investigation going on. If the whistler blower is to be believed, wire tapping was approved. So they basically jeopardized the investigation into a Mexican cartel.

That's a very good point and you might be right. I'm going to remember that as things develop.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tweets

1. 1. New conversation
      
      007‏ @TrendTrader007 7m7 minutes ago
      How to Interview Elon Musk ft. MKBHD! https://youtu.be/Tz9ZuI0PSSI via @YouTube $TSLA
      
      1 reply0 retweets1 like
      
   2. 
      007‏ @TrendTrader007 15s16 seconds ago
      $TSLA absolutely love this video!!!
      
      0 replies0 retweets0 likes
      

 

[SO16]

I more than doubled my long position after the market reopened after the tweet, so I have a lot at $360+. However I don’t feel like an idiot. Had I waited, I would probably not bought as much as I had (yeah, makes no sense, but then I never said I was logical). At any rate, I feel fine and will just ride it out for the next several years. I have little doubt I’ll make money.

Same here. And then doubled my position again today.

 

[dhrivnak]

NEW VIDEO - Tesla Factory Tour with Elon Musk! https://youtu.be/mr9kK0_7x08 - RT!

5 replies52 retweets154 likes

I found this encouraging as I see a very busy factory that overall is quite clean and many parts are moving around. No turmoil just a busy place. I wish he toured the Model 3 assembly area.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tweets

1. 1. New conversation
      
      Ross Gerber‏Verified account @GerberKawasaki 6m6 minutes ago
      Would #TimCook be an ideal number 2 at #Tesla? What do you think? Spot from @BloombergTV $tsla http://ow.ly/Dsz130lu7Cs
      
      
      
      
      9 replies3 retweets8 likes
      
   2. 
      007‏ @TrendTrader007 13s14 seconds ago
      love this interview thanks @GerberKawasaki
      

 

[TrendTrader007]

Option_Sniper‏ @option_snipper 50m50 minutes ago
Option_Sniper Retweeted Option_Sniper

$tsla strong into close. any move north of 314 would trigger even bigger move. guess shorts are actually covering today. JP Morgan and other investment banks always give opposite signals - when they say sell, consider it a buy signal.

 

[nQva]

Yeah, fair point and thanks for following up on why you disagreed. I appreciate that.

What I was trying to say, fractured and in-eloquent as it was, is that the stock price _should_ be controlled by the fundamentals, they are what matter and looking better and better with each passing week, but right now too much is being driven by the narrative, a narrative that Tesla isn't helping shape. A competent PR department would be out there working to steer the message back to the fundamentals. 6k/wk. Gross margin positive on Model 3. GAAP positive for Q3.

When we saw Tesla the company in control of the narrative at the annual shareholders meeting and again at the Q2 earnings call, the stock adjusted upwards accordingly. When Tesla the company is absent, the narrative inevitably devolves to things not related to fundamentals and the stock drops.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not but thanks for clarifying.

 

[sundaymorning]

All the FUD being precisely increased in frequency when Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker, Model 3 NTHSA VIN registration and Troy’s spreadsheet seem to indicate a robust ramp tells me shorts are desperately trying their best to suppress SP before Q3 data comes out. In just 2 weeks Inside EV numbers will show Model 3 obliterating all mid size luxury sales out of the water and there won’t be anything shorts can do about it, except scream a bit louder.

If Kevin O’leary’s numbers are to be believed, shorts are leveraged 300% at these levels (plus interest) and will soon face massive losses in which they’ll need to answer to their own investors (I lost your money because Tesla...). The end game is near, the bitterness of being harassed since 2013 is coming to an end, soon. This time, we’ll have the last laugh, I’m holding out of bitterness just as much as I am out of pride, love and respect for this company and members on his forum. It’s been 5 years, another 5 weeks is a cake walk. Remeber longs, at this point in time shorts are much more nervous than we are. Their investments and careers are on the line, they are fighting with the thought of their livelihoods flushed down the toilet I’d we are right. They’re fighting with desperation.

 

[Menifeer]

Normally yes, however the leap options around $420 and above are anything but normal after Elon's tweet. The extrinsic value is all over the place since then.

The only important factor with regard to assignment is the "time premium". When it approaches zero, assignment becomes more likely (but not assured). The $420s of 2020 have lots of time premium (about $25/share as of close today). No need for immediate concern...

 

[Fact Checking]

Saw a reply to you (can't find it now, perhaps removed?) by someone stating it might have been a broker accumulating throughout the day and moving to a client after hours. Never heard that before, but could see that happening. In this case, I don't think that was it as the book would probably be an all-or-noithing condition (I would think) and in this case it wasn't.

Here's the time in question I believe. Note the several large bid sizes:

View attachment 327356

Hm, this log doesn't seem to be showing the $306 price action - is from shortly after the event perhaps?

Prearranged share transfer over the market would have featured a matching large size limit order from the client I think - it wouldn't have affected the price, it would only have shown up as a volume spike, with some free price improvement perhaps. Usually done in lower volume periods though.

During the event today the transaction cut through $5 worth of orders in the book (a huge distance), causing an instant loss of about a million dollars due to the dumb execution and slippage.

 

[omarsultan]

If as journalist you write a negative article about a major advertiser, your boss is almost certainly going to hear from them. At top newspapers he'll most likely going to shield you, but if your article turns out to be wrong, your job is likely on the line.

That's common sense and enough of a force to cause self-censorship and CYA caution.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one--even mediocre outlets have a firewall between sales and editorial. Sales might call and complain about negative coverage but the editor will most typically tell them to go pound sand. Journalists and outlets trade on their credibility and any kind of pay-to-play reputation is a death sentence. I'd say the only ones who can truly influence editorial is legal and perhaps finance.

From a practical perspective, if I am targeting placements and, say, the WSJ is the best way to reach my targeted audience, its going to take a lot before I pull my ad placement. I may call and raise holy hell with my account manager, but pulling ads, especially from tier 1 outlets is a cut-off-your-nose move.

 

[Joe F]

Hm, this log doesn't seem to be showing the $306 price action - is from shortly after the event perhaps?

Prearranged share transfer over the market would have featured a matching large size limit order from the client I think - it wouldn't have affected the price, it would only have shown up as a volume spike, with some free price improvement perhaps. Usually done in lower volume periods though.

During the event today the transaction cut through $5 worth of orders in the book (a huge distance), causing an instant loss of about a million dollars due to the dumb execution and slippage.

That was the correct time period for the volume in question. Open was $305.37, low was $300.20,and close was $303.28 which bracketed the $302.40 bid. Unless I’m reading it incorrectly.

 

[sundaymorning]

A call for longs:

This is it guys. It’s countdown to take private. Shorts are going all out and assaulting us on every street corner. It’s time to fight back, hit them hard on social media and grind them down, another 5-6 weeks and numbers will be out. Those numbers will speak for themselves, but right now your account could use a little boast, fight back..