TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yonki]

Wow, a headline that succinctly and completely proves “Entrepreneur” magazine has no f-ing idea what leadership is:

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Oh and I’ve declared my account as investment account that is actually linked directly to my IB account so I enjoy low transaction fees and no short term capital gains tax

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I would not have linked a garbage article. I pulled up the stocks listed and the numbers are correct. Many of us here jumped in on Musk's tweet and have taken losses. Who is to say more are not ahead?

Who gives a hoot about the ads?

The article cites absolute cash burn in the last few years, rather than projecting expected positions going forward, and uses long outdated production numbers to make its case. Current estimated production is over 6,000 per week of the Model 3 alone. That represents over 20% growth in production speed in the course of less than 2 months.

And in sales? The Chanos quote about worrying about Tesla vs shorts instead of Tesla vs Mercedes/Audi/BMW is brought up. Wellllll, shall we look at market share across those 4 brands in the past few months in the US? Do we expect Tesla’s share of that to increase or decrease going forward?

And, of course, there’s profitability. All the examples of other companies given in the article had declining profitability. We’ll have to see what happens with Q3 and Q4, but so far, even the bears seem to be projecting profits for Q3(and margins on the Model 3 have been rising). Revenue is already up through the roof and rising quickly.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Wow, a headline that succinctly and completely proves “Entrepreneur” magazine has no f-big idea what leadership is:
View attachment 328055

Click through and you’ll see that’s from Nov. 2017. Not sure why it shows up now.

 

[Remus]

This article is worth a read. Tesla never trades on fundamentals. Few here seem to care about actual fundamentals, which is why this would be a wise read for many. If you trade Tesla, realize you are very much in gambling/speculating territory. I am long Tesla, but I want to also acknowledge that I'm not doing my trading based on fundamentals at all. This is purely gambling. If I wanted to invest on fundamentals, I'd buy stocks in companies that make money. Not spreading FUD, but ppl need to realize what they're risking around Tesla and become wiser investors. I'm sure there will be some disagrees...thats fine, I just want my post to help ppl who want to learn.

I am guessing that your definition of fundamental is average of last few years earnings with slight growth projections based on, again, some history. By that standard sane investors should only invest on stably profitable companies, such as GE

oops.

when you are accusing others not trading on fundamentals, have you ever considered their definition of "fundamentals" are not the same as yours? Have you ever considered that others may see sustained weekly production rate of 5000, estimated average selling price of nearly $60k, praising of the owners, as fundamentals? They may also see lack of competition as fundamentals?

 

[Causalien]

@Causalien @Remus Why is this offending you? @Remus Why this attack - I could be wrong, but it seems as if you took it on a personal level?

Perhaps everyone that is criticizing other member's input should examine their own motives, state of mind and where and why emotions come from. We did just have discussion on 'mindfulness'

My motivation is:
1. I enjoy wide range of opinions,
2. I seem to be slightly cranky tonight and
3. most importantly, I've bet heavily on Tesla success, and I want to be mindful of any and all signs that something isn't right - component of my bet is time sensitive;
and @Remus, by pushing away people that are critical, you are voiding me of that opportunity. This is really the only reason this post even exists. I'll repeat: By silencing negative posts, I feel you (generic 'you', not Remus) is affecting my chance of being fully informed.

Just to clarify @Remus , it's not that you're particularly egregious example, or anything like that, it's just that these thoughts about forum shortcomings have bothered me for months, and your post was convenient to express them.

So please, let's have some more tolerance for all opinions about Tesla/TSLA/Musk here. And feel free to use 'Ignore' button liberally. I do, but that doesn't solve my problem if we chase away all the smart bears.
Thanks

@Unpilot @Electroman @Chop110 I just added you to this after seeing your responses.
Oh, and I didn't like the article, it's next to useless, but will fight for the right that we get informed about it.

It's not offensive. I never read beachbum's posts before until today. So I put him in the camp where he is probably paid shrill based on when he appears in the past and the type of posts he put up. I use curious sunbird as a measuring stick for which short I should pay attention to and which short is probably paid and is a good measure of whether or not the real shorts with money are paying people to spread FUD again.

IF, zero hedge comes out with 2 tsla stories tomorrow, then we'll know it is true, if not then I will downgrade beachbum's "paid" factor.

 

[Yonki]

Click through and you’ll see that’s from Nov. 2017. Not sure why it shows up now.

Good catch, thanks. Imagine it's showing up now because why not pile on? But I've no interest in clicking through - no pageviews from me.

 

[SebastianR]

Hm, while we are all busy rehashing old news and debunking old myths, why not enjoy some good old awesomeness, too? I think we should just post great videos of Tesla/SpaceX. So here goes:

We need more #awesomeness - in this world and beyond! #TSLA #GoPrivateAlready!

If we see green today - you are welcome ;-)

 

[EV forever]

Easy.

She’s saying that going private will be amazingly stupid. Bureaucracy will kill progress, enthusiasm and hope for the company.

Can’t disagree with her, as we have hard evidence of this from another «private company»:

You’re welcome

Please stop with the charade and lies.

@beachbum77 is Donn Bailey, one of the most prolific Tesla short authors on Seeking Alpha, with 67 anti-Tesla articles published over the past 14 months. His disclosure on Seeking Alpha says:

"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS."​

So his Put options are about to go to zero when the go private deal closes. Good.

This is a great example of why Elon wants Tesla to go private though. The dishonesty of short sellers never ends. I for one will be glad to see them gone.

“beachbum77 is Donn Bailey, one of the most prolific Tesla short authors on Seeking Alpha, with 67 anti-Tesla articles published over the past 14 months.”

Thanks for the revelation. Donn Bailey is one of my 3 ‘blocked’ authors on Seeking Alpha. Even a naive investor like me could tell his article is mostly heresy, baseless speculation stated as facts, and just pure FUD. (Montana was also on my blocked list, so I missed most of the drama)

Now BeachBum77 will be the first on my ignore list here.

 

[Matias]

I agree with her estimates but at this point it seems the process of going private is almost irreversible
The fact that GS and MS are already involved and no longer rating $TSLA indicates that the deal will go through

Please. Nothing is certain. There is this one small detail; money. Elon needs to find investors willing to pay 420, when stock price is 320.
This is not fud or negativity. This is reality. If I were sure, deal is going go trough I would take that 30% profit at a heartbeat.

 

[EV forever]

Bloomberg tracker is showing 6278 cars for the week!
Did we just break through the 6000/week goal today?

 

[MartinAustin]

6,278 per week is 27,279 cars per month, if you do the math.

As long as you can accept my anecdotal and informal calculations, that makes the Model 3 the TOP SELLING CAR IN THE USA right now. For this week.

( per 10 Specs Help Explain Why Tesla Model 3 = 5th or 6th Best Selling Car in USA | CleanTechnica )

Am I wrong? It seems surreal.

 

[Xorbit]

Elazar Advisors:
"Gross Margins Jumping

If you backed into the numbers for Q2 you saw S&X gross margins jumped to 37% or so, up 1100 basis points from Q1. Bears made up stories why that's bad, right?

As Model 3 gross margins go to 15-20% this year and 25-30% next year (all stated by Tesla on the Q1 and Q2 earnings calls) you can get much higher earnings. (free trial: Full model)

And you can start believing Tesla on their targets because those S&X gross margins were the real deal. It's happening.

Yes some of it's on the come but S&X gross margins were too big.

Earnings Inflection Of The Century

We do simple trajectory analysis to see where the numbers are going. We've been doing it for 25 years. Tesla's story is about to hit serious earnings inflection. There aren't that many companies doing what Tesla's about to do with this earnings inflection. We're looking for them and there are not that many out there. And earnings are the primary driver for individual stock price performance.

Bears Way Too Bearish

I can't believe how bearish everybody is. I think everybody's so stuck in the mud being bearish, emotional and negative that they can't honestly look at that Q2 S&X gross margin jump which tells you, uh oh, this is happening. Sorry shorts.

$420 For A Song

$420 is taking Tesla for a song. It's way too cheap. I hope they don't get away with it.

Would you give Tesla a 50 PE for earning our $26.87 in 2019? If so you get a $1,343 stock price. The sell-side's under $3.00 for next year. Way off. No wonder Musk's trying to nab this one on the cheap. Everyone's missing it."
Elazar Advisors, LLC: Our $1000+ Tesla Target Was Way Too Low

 

[WarpedOne]

At the time being ... yes, you are wrong because:
a) it is a guesstimate having nothing to do with reality
b) even if accidentally the number is correct, it is only the rate, and it was not and it will not hold for the whole month.

Tesla's guess was some 55k per Q3. Do not expect significantly more, it may happen, but do not expect it. The line will stop sooner or later for some upgrades.

 

[NicoV]

That logic seems quite simple to program. How hard can it be for computer imaging to recognize shapes/sizes when an AI supercomputer has analyzed a million images of lambs, ewes and rams befobe they even put the finished software in your car. The programmer tells it in a line of code what you just told the world about ewes being say 90 percent more likely to run across....it will be 10x smarter than humans who might be tourists and not know that. The computer technology to do this is already in place.

Being a software developer for over 3 decades, my experience is that nothing is ‘just one line of code’. In the best case it starts as one line of code.

 

[NicoV]

Ya, I've narrowed it down to Belgium, Spain, Italy or Germany. Just need to compare the tax scheme of each country now.

Don’t forget to leave Belgium after you’ve taken your profits, because as of this year, there’s a new tax that confiscates 0.15% of your stocks every year (calculated not on the profits, but on the average value of your stocks over the year).

 

[jeewee3000]

Don’t forget to leave Belgium after you’ve taken your profits, because as of this year, there’s a new tax that confiscates 0.15% of your stocks every year (calculated not on the profits, but on the average value of your stocks over the year).

Imortant not: the 0,15% yearly tax on the stocks you are holding is only in effect if your portfolio is worth over €500.000 (half a million).

I am not there yet.

 

[avoigt]

In case it has not been posted before:

Arks letter is out now predicting a SP in 5 years of, Bear case $700 and Bull case $ 4,000

Both calculations discount many areas like TE I do have strong hopes for exponential growth in 5 years.

MaaS is clearly a strong opportunity they bet on at the Bull case but that depends on L5 FSD which still has to master many unknowns as well as technical and political challenges to overcome.

Personally I am not convinced yet that we will be there in 5 years but expect the auto business with S3XY, Semi, R2 and Pickup to be delivering in the 7 digits units as well as a marked dominance with TE.

Also they ask Elon to stay private which I believe will be an issue for the strong investments in further GFs. Going full speed is what I would like to see and the market will not stop the torture if they continue being public. However I do understand ARKs motivation as they have to go out of a private company unfortunately.

Would be a pity to loose them as the elegance how they dismantled FUD in public will be missed.

Dear Elon: An Open Letter Against Taking Tesla Private - ARK Investment Management

 

[NicoV]

Imortant not: the 0,15% yearly tax on the stocks you are holding is only in effect if your portfolio is worth over €500.000 (half a million).

I am not there yet.

Indeed, but if you’re seriously considering relocating to Belgium for the tax free investment profits,I’m assuming you’re in the category >500k

 

[NicoV]

Imortant not: the 0,15% yearly tax on the stocks you are holding is only in effect if your portfolio is worth over €500.000 (half a million).

I am not there yet.

Actually, IIRC, the tax would only take into account publicly traded stocks, so for Belgian individuals it would be good if Tesla went private.