TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[N5329K]

Character assignation

A lot of characters go in for that.
Robin

 

[Krugerrand]

Well he could at least smile, no? But it's very angry looking...

I use only a cartoon cat as my avatar because the constant harassment from women stops me from using a real photo.

Oh, I thought you had a problem with his full head of thick hair cut stylishly, but it’s the look of constipation (or is it consternation?) on his face you object to.

 

[imherkimer]

He’s liked one of my tweets in the past, I had a big smile on my face for like 2 days because of it

Can we get that one up here, Avatar?

 

[SpaceCash]

I am glad we held 300 today! I am cautiously optimistic that when they unveil the Space-X Roadster in Germany that we'll get a sharp SP boost.

Full disclosure, my position consists mainly of Feb 2019 Calls. I do believe I'm gonna make a killing.

 

[mershaw2001]

Are we going to get an update from the company in early september for the number of cars delivered? Oh wait, I mean early october. I think the quarter is July/Aug/Sept.

 

[Beltsbear]

No, 300 Watt hours/mile average per Tesla. I also assumed 20 gallons of gasoline refined per 42 gallon oil barrel, etc, etc. NOT capturing true well-to-wheel efficiencies, distribution losses. Surely other errors, though. It was a very small envelope, after all. We could be anywhere from Venezuela's daily bbl pumped, to Nigeria's, or as much as Kuwait's.
And next week, 5,000 more EV's.
Robin

You can’t count just 20 gallons per barrel. Your ignoring about half of the energy per barrel then.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Where on God’s green acres are u people coming up with all this dry powder. Couch? Hidden stashes of collector coins you buried in the backyard as children? Are you standing on the street corner on weekends? Selling your wives and children to some elaborate underground Russian slavery camp? Door Dash delivering organic pizzas Mon-Fri from 6pm-6am? Pawning your wives’ costume jewelry and your kids’ Beanie Babies? Lemonade stand?

Sadly I could not come up with any more dry powder today. But thank you for the helpful suggestions I had not yet considered

 

[Causalien]

Where on God’s green acres are u people coming up with all this dry powder. Couch? Hidden stashes of collector coins you buried in the backyard as children? Are you standing on the street corner on weekends? Selling your wives and children to some elaborate underground Russian slavery camp? Door Dash delivering organic pizzas Mon-Fri from 6pm-6am? Pawning your wives’ costume jewelry and your kids’ Beanie Babies? Lemonade stand?

Tesla is only my 3rd largest/successful position and has lagged behind my others since 2016. Soon it'll be the 4th largest or 5th. Pretty sure most people who invseted in TSLA also invested in SQ, NVDA, AMZN, AMD, FB, AAPL and all these other tech names as a diversification measure. It is only normal to sell the others and rebalance to TSLA right now.

Although it lagged all others in growth, it is the one stock where I will immediately get flack if I mention I own the stock. For some reason, TSLA is a gamble while all the others are safe investments and a genius level play. Heck the whole soon-to-be-legal Marijuana sector don't get as much coverage and headache as one TSLA stock.

 

[Dennisj00]

Is there an assumed consumption of 300 kWh per mile, per Tesla? Hopefully that is just a typo, otherwise the calculation is off by three orders of magnitude.

I’ve allways said it’s really nice to be going at 80 and only using 3- 100 watt light bulbs! (Or less!)

 

[dgodfrey]

That was a first great post Gene. If you keep it up I’m sure Elon himself will notice. He’s liked one of my tweets in the past, I had a big smile on my face for like 2 days because of it

Funny, I have a hard time imagining that. And I'm not talking about Elon liking your post either.

 

[WentOffGrid]

Pretty sure most people who invseted in TSLA also invested in SQ, NVDA, AMZN, AMD, FB, AAPL and all these other tech names as a diversification measure

What's "diversification"?

 

[Unpilot]

What's your handle?

[email protected] guess?

 

[K_Dizzle]

Funny, I have a hard time imagining that. And I'm not talking about Elon liking your post either.

. This was the day it happened, best day ever!

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I actually have bought a little more stock and sold some more puts over the last few days. The sheer *irrelevance* of the disinformation is staggering at this point.

I suspect the paint shop problems will be resolved now that the sabotage (!!!) has been identified. We should be on a relentless path to higher production, higher deliveries, lower cost of production, and higher quality, and frankly if Musk has a nervous breakdown and has to take a month's rest, the company will still be profitable. It will still make 50K-55K Model 3s in the quarter, deliver slightly more, and have positive financial results.

Answer to bolded part: I'm not so sure. Worst case, I see production 45K-50K, with deliveries around there, and small loss (under 100M), or at least small profit with lots and lots ZEV credits, which will give bears ammunition for screaming bloody murder.

There are two ways to consider my worst case scenario, and I'm flip-flopping constantly on which one I think is more likely:
1) I seem to like to worry about things I can't control
or
2) Tesla has numerous times managed to underdeliver or just about hit even my most pessimistic estimates

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Really? you're prepared to say the build quality of an X is the same as a Porsche ... c'mon ...

I'm almost as enthused about Porsche as I'm about Tesla, and have couple (for about 10 years now), but I'm not sure what you reference - I am not thinking Porsche is any better built than the Tesla.
Last year while I had transmission replaced on my GT4, I had chance to try Macan and Cayenne as a replacement cars, and I hated them - though I'd potentially hate MX too, not fun of SUVs.
BTW, did you catch that thingy about transmission being replaced in a Porsche less than a year old? (dealer invoice to Porsche was $11K, at discounted labour rates)
Now, if you want to discuss steering feel, balance of handling vs. ride, good seats, ergonomic driving position, endurance on the track, I'll give you those ones.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA volume continued in the 7M range for the third consecutive session today, with slightly below average interday SP range (6.88 today vs 8.76 historical). Data from NASDAQ. Summary stats in the table below cover period May-07-2015 to today.

 

[N5329K]

You can’t count just 20 gallons per barrel. Your ignoring about half of the energy per barrel then.

Yes, deliberately, because that 20 gallons of finished gasoline product is the approximate yield when you start with 42 gallons of raw crude. I believe that's correct, anyway. No doubt it's better in some fields, worse in others. Remember, an ICE car "ignores" two thirds of the energy in that gallon of gasoline, too.
Read more here:
How many gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel are made from one barrel of oil? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Robin

 

[Revhappy2]

I am glad we held 300 today! I am cautiously optimistic that when they unveil the Space-X Roadster in Germany that we'll get a sharp SP boost.

Full disclosure, my position consists mainly of Feb 2019 Calls. I do believe I'm gonna make a killing.

How do you make a killing by buying calls? You need to sell PUTs of the same strike to atleast make some good the high premium you paid.

I believe some people here, were caught on the wrong foot when the LEAPS above 420 crashed on the go private news. I guess if they had also sold equivalent puts, then they would have been saved from that carnage. So isnt a synthetic long better than a naked long call?

 

[Ratanpara]

Answer to bolded part: I'm not so sure. Worst case, I see production 45K-50K, with deliveries around there, and small loss (under 100M), or at least small profit with lots and lots ZEV credits, which will give bears ammunition for screaming bloody murder.

There are two ways to consider my worst case scenario, and I'm flip-flopping constantly on which one I think is more likely:
1) I seem to like to worry about things I can't control
or
2) Tesla has numerous times managed to underdeliver or just about hit even my most pessimistic estimates

Bloomberg weekly production estimates normally not that accurate but I think their total production is generally close to reality.

 

[SpaceCash]

How do you make a killing by buying calls? You need to sell PUTs of the same strike to atleast make some good the high premium you paid.

I believe some people here, were caught on the wrong foot when the LEAPS above 420 crashed on the go private news. I guess if they had also sold equivalent puts, then they would have been saved from that carnage. So isnt a synthetic long better than a naked long call?

You're absolutely hilarious. I'm not retarded and your paid basher tactics won't work on me.

P.S. I bought these calls on Friday before the not-going-private announcement, which consequently popped them up a lot. I'm already in the green even at current sp.

Go away