es
Thanks! Yes, I have enough cash to buy 100 shares at 230, although I am hoping it doesnt get assigned and I can keep the premium.
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Thanks! Yes, I have enough cash to buy 100 shares at 230, although I am hoping it doesnt get assigned and I can keep the premium.
K_Dizzle
Member
I'm sorry to say that I'm going to temporarily bow out of Tesla for now. I've lost quite a bit of money placing my leveraged bets on Tesla going private. I'm not bitter or anything as it was all money I was OK with losing it all from the start, just a little annoyed at the temporary setback. I still love Tesla, and I believe more than ever that Tesla is outrageously undervalued, and I bet I'll love Tesla even more when I get my M3 next week. But for now, I gotta go make some dry powder from investing in other tech stocks that are currently more loved by the market. I don't see Tesla making any big moves until Q3.
I'll be back around Q3 earnings, hopefully with a LOT more dry powder. Then I plan on staying as a (very) long term investor, partially because I see Tesla as probably the only stock I'd hold through a recession. Tesla has a ridiculous future ahead. However, I don't see the market recognizing that until the writing is on the wall on 1000 pt font, which will be the Q3 earnings. I fully plan on making my money back from the shorts, and some more
. I ain't letting the shorts off easy!
Cheers
I'll be back around Q3 earnings, hopefully with a LOT more dry powder. Then I plan on staying as a (very) long term investor, partially because I see Tesla as probably the only stock I'd hold through a recession. Tesla has a ridiculous future ahead. However, I don't see the market recognizing that until the writing is on the wall on 1000 pt font, which will be the Q3 earnings. I fully plan on making my money back from the shorts, and some more
. I ain't letting the shorts off easy!Cheers
shlokavica22
Member
TintDepot.com
Member
Buying September/October $380 calls. Was thinking of cashing out when the stock hits close to $420, then converting to very cheap $500-600 June 2019's to prep for a short squeeze. Well, none of that happened! If I did the latter plan first, I would have been a lot better off from the downside of privatization not going through. However, I honestly placed a 0% chance that the privatization wasn't going through given Elon's determination. But I failed to consider how considerate he would be to his investors.
This makes me believe that for Elon to make the decision to abandon going private, the existing shareholders must have made direct or implied promises to Elon that the shorts WILL be severely punished soon and the market is going to respond very, very well to Tesla's stock as soon as it gets a good reason to do so (cough Q3 profit). Otherwise, it goes against the primary reason why he wanted to take Tesla private in the first place: so it can execute better without distraction from the shorts. All shareholders know that the current FUD is severely impacting Tesla, and there is no way they won't do something about it.
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shlokavica22
Member
Menifeer
Member
Not really necessary, since it's a non-profit...
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Yeah? Well... I uh, this guy I follow achieved being Blocked by Smeagol.
Ricky Allen (@EnvelopeJackson) | Twitter
And, to think, folks were complaining this thread got off-topic....
Where else can you go to get investing insights and a cultural education?
So good idea or not? I played with Alt coins for a bit...tripled my money...but of course with the recent retreat I am back to about what I put in.
So I am thinking of pulling that cash out of the crypto market and using it to round out my Tesla shares to a nice even 1000.
I just can't believe this sale will last beyond the next few weeks and then the SP will NEVER be this low again.
Thoughts?
So I am thinking of pulling that cash out of the crypto market and using it to round out my Tesla shares to a nice even 1000.
I just can't believe this sale will last beyond the next few weeks and then the SP will NEVER be this low again.
Thoughts?
bdy0627
Active Member
It's gone way down from about a week ago. I still have a number of calls that I've had for several weeks. Those have dropped due to the share price dropping but also from IV dropping a lot. The combination has really crushed the option price. There were days where the stock didn't drop much yet the call dropped over 30%. Not much fun to still have these. Normally I wouldn't have held them so long but this has been a particularly difficult period for predicting the stock price movement. The privatization consideration and the decision to abandon it has been pretty brutal.
bdy0627
Active Member
My very first thought is that we have heard that statement so many times, and it has proved false again and again. The SP will continue trading in range until it doesn't. No one knows when that will happen but there is a lot of informed speculation about it. I would caution against the thinking that this is the last time the SP will be this low. On the other hand, we are certainly closer to that point than we have been in the past.
Cohiba
Member
I have just joined the Twitter movement, and I abslutely love it! The arguments these shorts come up with, priceless!
I may not fully understand inverted candles and the like, but this is part of my day job.
The problem is two fold:
Technically, you get the best solutions when HW and SW are completely in sync and integrated. Apple is the best example of this in the consumer space. You fully control what the HW does, what the SW does and how future development it prioritized. When you turn to an external vendor for part of your solution, you end up ceding some level of architectural control over to them. In your example, Tesla SW is ultimately constrained by what NVIDIA HW will support. If you need a new capacity to in HW to support some new function in SW, you are at the mercy of the HW vendor as to when and if it happens. Now chip making is expensive, so, if chip vendors build a chip, they want it to the the broadest market possible to maximize their return. So, if Tesla asks for some feature, the NVIDIA product manager is going consider it and prioritize it against the asks and the potential revenue of the asks from other NVIDIA customers. Tesla then finds their SW roadmap being dependent on NVIDA's HW roadmap. Because this SW is written specifically to the HW, NVIDIA knows that there would be immense pain for Tesla to try and move to another chip vendor. Finally, if everyone is using the same chip, it becomes that much harder to create a competitive advantage/differentiation (case in point: Windows PC). Unique HW capacities like the chip performance Elon mentioned in the last EC sets the stage for creating unique and differentiated features that buyers will care about.
The other problem is financial. There is a reason Tesla vertically integrates. If they are in financial position to build their own chips and eliminate the middle man (NVIDIA) this saves them money in the long run. They are no longer paying NVIDIA's margin today and they are not longer at the mercy of price increases down the road because of architectural locking (look up the licensing/cost changes on Google Maps).
BTW, there are a lot of good reasons to use someone's hardware:
- Time to market--quicker to use someone else's chip than make your own
- You cannot swing the upfront costs
- You lack the expertise to design you own chip
- Your target market is already commoditized
Seems $300 is pretty solid. If no more drops by end of today, I'll start my buying back again in afterhours. I don't think it will make it down to $290 IMO. Need to buy before V9 FSD is released. This will be on every car demo ride out there and word will spread quickly. Then stock will peak ($360) and pull back because of what it can't do. My guess is it's being tested at length and they're waiting to pull the trigger as part of a bigger strategy. So could be Oct/Nov as no one knows, but I think this $300 bottom has that baked in and why it's not going any lower.
I don't actually expect much from V9 on a feature scale, but a significant milestone on a technology scale with huge risks/reward in deployment. My guess is that it recognizes traffic signs and automatic braking will take over as a safety thing - hopefully stops too but I wouldn't recommend that because people will rely on it and then we're back to FUD-land on the first hiccup. I don't expect Navigation to take you through the city but possibly a turn at a stop sign that you initiate with the turn signal. The driver must be in control for now. Enough capability so that owners and investors see the potential, without adding too much risk. Think baby steps, like how you feel when your kid crosses the street to catch the bus first time - paranoid right?
"Only the Paranoid Survive", Andy Grove (Intel Co-founder).
Repurchased my shares I sold and added 1000 shares.
Realized I was being too short sighted
Plus other companies like AMZN and NFLX are too overpriced right now. Couldn’t stand selling TSLA low to buy those stocks high
Sorry for reversal. Obviously I don’t know what I’m doing
Short term trading in California is a losing proposition. Depending on you tax bracket you could pay up to 54% tax on any gains while often not being able to balance with losses due to wash rule.
No more trading for me
Realized I was being too short sighted
Plus other companies like AMZN and NFLX are too overpriced right now. Couldn’t stand selling TSLA low to buy those stocks high
Sorry for reversal. Obviously I don’t know what I’m doing
Short term trading in California is a losing proposition. Depending on you tax bracket you could pay up to 54% tax on any gains while often not being able to balance with losses due to wash rule.
No more trading for me
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