While you're probably right about market sentiment, does it actually matter -- at all -- to the company if Mr. Musk loses a libel lawsuit or has to take an enforced vacation? My assessment: no.
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While you're probably right about market sentiment, does it actually matter -- at all -- to the company if Mr. Musk loses a libel lawsuit or has to take an enforced vacation? My assessment: no.
shlokavica22
Member
Once the forum lost one testicle, all started going downhill. Today is just more from the same.
Yeah, so it's a good thing Tesla isn't seeking financing for expansion. For very understandable reasons, Musk and the Board decided not to seek further financing for expansion, except for local Chinese loans (which aren't affected).
3000 Euro? That is approx. 4'000 usd which would value the company at close to 700 billion (like Amazon). No car company ever exceeded 200B, Toyota currently valued at 204B...I had to finally sign up here to be able to put a bunch of people on Ignore.... the forum which I've been reading for a couple of years now has become - almost - unreadable without "Ignore"....
Long-term long. Buy+Hold. Don't care about volatility, fully believe in this company.
Have a sell-order in for my total TSLA holdings @ €3000
Pleasw think again. .
I will make a point not made often.
Investors -- long-term investors -- actually have almost no influence on the stock price.
Investors make a very small number of trades. Most days, most investors don't trade any stock at all.
So they have a very small effect on the stock price. An accumulating investor can provide a "floor" or an unloading investor can provide a "ceiling", but on the whole, investors don't have any effect on the stock price in the short term.
Short-term stock prices are driven by those who are making bids and asks all the time: traders and speculators and market makers.
The interesting thing that you didn't mention is that it appears that the Model 3 has increased the US Premium mid-sized sedan market segment by about 49%. So it is either pulling in buyers from other market segments, it is pulling in people that weren't buying cars at all, or there were a lot of people holding off and waiting for the Model 3.
Whoops, I was looking at the wrong month. So in looking at August the segment has increased by almost 50% since June.
In general, I agree with you. However, by my calculations, as long as they're more-or-less breakeven in Q3 and profitable in Q4, Tesla as a company will be fine.
This implies that a -$0.01 loss in Q3 would probably cause the stock to go down but then rebound monumentally when fourth quarter numbers come out. Just a guess....
Just as well Tesla are more than a car company. And the car portion of what they do is done in a unique way, with unique profitability potential. From what I've seen so far, you're too short-sighted and impatient to be a Tesla investor. Time for you to sell up and move on I'd say.
So with little means to affect price by small traders
next best thing with all the knives falling
would be to toss a few shorts under them
slice the jugular and score a bull's eye
Model S/X deliveries look very impressive for August. Could we be seeing 30,000 global deliveries this quarter? I haven't seen the numbers for Europe though.
- Tesla Model S – 2,625 units in August
- Tesla Model X – 2,750 units in August
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I agree with your analysis: either one big holder is selling or a lot of shallow long holders are selling (no way to tell which). (A "shallow" long in my opinion is one who thinks that the kerfuffle about Musk's mental state has any real impact on Tesla's profitability, which I don't think it does.)
I get this, but do you understand the concept of Valuation? There are industries valued at 100x price earnings ratio while others are valued at 5x price earnings. What I want to tell you is that the Price Earnings Ratio can in the long term fluctuate strongly for a company. A company might be even be less worth wenn it is more successful due to lower PE ratios. Therefore, the valuation of a company and in this case Tesla is only driven by speculators and market makers. Tesla can be worth 500 usd or 150 usd and be exactly the same company, only with a different valuation ratio. Currently they don't even produce earnings but when they do people will see that the PE ratio is rather high then low and therefore stockprice rather valued too high.
It wouldn't be front-running. It would be stock manipulation. It wouldn't be provable.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Also, for more data (from yesterday) on the shorts, Ihor updated his analysis of short interest: Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
*Today*, this is one of the silliest bearish theses I've seen. I've got models for Tesla's long-term earnings, and if I apply plausible low-ish long-term P/E ratios (like 10), the low end of my model says it's worth $280-$320 (this assumes the Semi and Solar Roof will do OK, but that things like the Roadster or Pickup or Model Y will never happen due to lack of financing or something).
I should say that the bearish overvaluation thesis made sense at $380, no sense at $280
did you see the volume? One institutional investor is selling part of his stock, the rest is usual AI bot thing pushing price down by small chunks. Apparently there is somebody ready to spend more than a 1mln(?) per day on Tesla to push down stock price and to keep indicator in red.
There will be at least one usual hard spike and fall this year.
Mike Smith
Active Member
#15 best selling vehicle (car or light truck) in the US. And they count the entire "F-series" as one vehicle, which is sort of cheating (an F-150 is quite different from an F-450 -- though I think they exclude the 550 and 650 and 750, since they're considered commercial vehicles).
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