TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mike117]

Okay, I’m pissed. A CEO does not smoke weed during a live interview! What one does in private is their own business, so long as it doesn’t hurt others. In public, that’s another story.

I’ve never thought it before, but it’s time for someone else to take over (JB) and let Elon solve problems behind the scenes. Pedo guy, boring boneheaded questions, now this. Just too much noise, too much drama. I’m sick of it.

Agreed, he is not a business magnate, what he was the most in the last 4 weeks was a DVD aka shareholder value destroyer.

Today we will see 250-265

 

[dondy]

Was silver lake able to get 30 billion lined up in about two weeks?

If so, how is that even feasible?

It is feasible if it happened before 7 of august. The question is who were their clients.

 

[loky]

Agreed, he is not a business magnate, what he was the most in the last 4 weeks was a DVD aka shareholder value destroyer.

Today we will see 250-265

EM is not a business magnate, he is a business magnet.
Is 250-265 enough to cover?

 

[WarpedOne]

When will the charade of public image and all the hypocrisy that it fuels finally end?
When people finally stop having a public image and doing the charade.

Be what you are, always and everywhere.

 

[jhm]

I’m confused. I was looking for Tesla’s sales below Mercedes, BMW, and Audi, but couldn’t find them there. I wonder what happened...

GCBC has dropped their estimate of Model 3 sales from 20,xxx to 17,800. I believe this was to bring them in line with InsideEVs. Since Musk has been retweeting articles based on that number, they must feel it is more credible than the higher number they had been reporting.

This changes the brand ranking, but not the Model 3 ranking.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Okay, I’m pissed. A CEO does not smoke weed during a live interview! What one does in private is their own business, so long as it doesn’t hurt others. In public, that’s another story.

I’ve never thought it before, but it’s time for someone else to take over (JB) and let Elon solve problems behind the scenes. Pedo guy, boring boneheaded questions, now this. Just too much noise, too much drama. I’m sick of it.

2+ hours of total genius...2 minutes of stupidity. What are the bears and shorts and their already biased media going to slam until the cows come home and the stock drops another 10% or more? Yeah, you and I both know. Total shame. Have to admit, I'm disappointed too.

Dan

 

[SO16]

It is about the timing. Two weeks later does not let someone off the hook. It had to be factual at the time of the announcement.

In most cases, the work is done over months of investigation, coordination, and number crunching before anyone says anything publicly. I believe that is why the BoD was reportedly stunned by Musk's announcement. At that point in time, he had only talked about a go-private plan. We know now he had not even hired anyone to analyze the idea on August 7th. They were hired after the fact.

Those two words and the weight they carried is what prompted action by both long and short positions to buy millions of shares. I believe the SP is still feeling the repercussions of this episode.

I am one of those who purchased several shares after the tweet. But I also know at the time he said “thinking of taking Tesla private.” Not definitely.

He must have known at the time that he has enough backers to get to the official signing of funding securing. Hence, funding secured. Now it comes down to how that is to be interpreted. Will be curious to see if the SEC sees it that way or if actual signed documents must be done first. I’ll admit, I would have preferred he said: “funding looks securable”.

 

[dondy]

Sure. Pick your largest tech companies Apple, Facebook, etc. and look at their P/E ratios. They are all in the low-mid double digits despite earning $billions. If Tesla had a $1/share annual profit in 2018 after two profitable quarters we could see a P/E ratio in the mid-hundreds (300-400). Once that becomes comparable to huge companies like the big techs people would realize how overvalued Tesla would be AT THAT POINT IN TIME. Those analysts who see the same thing see a pullback to the high $100's to low $200's, and then a growth in SP again from there tied to the P/E ratio at a more balanced rate. I do not see Tesla ever being compared to other automakers who all have single-digit to very low double-digit ratios. My gang also sees more dilution ahead pulling down the SP before the long ramp up. That is when we plan to go long. Linking to a measuring stick, so to speak, should also end the violent swings in share price. That should send short sellers off to other stocks to plunder.

The best analogy I can give is shifting from first to second gear in a car (with a manual transmission). A brief drop in RPM before the next gear propels the car forward at a higher speed but lower RPM, getting back to that high RPM again at a faster speed.

You have to wait 15 years for your going long plan.

Anyway, if to look at the real world outside of these huge casinoes you see two types of investors. Venture capitalists who look for undervalued companies "start-ups" and invest there hoping for some immense stock growth, and rentier capitalists who buy stocks/companies from the first type with the idea of living on this long time investment.

Current Tesla customers are funds who know that Tesla is solid in long term stock and literally store there money, hendge funds which do their usual betting and immediate value shaking and "venture" capitalists who hope that TSLA will grow to the new heights. More of it it's easy to notice that either AMZN and AAPL aren't really rentier friendly and the main mass of investors are of the first type betting on these giants stability.

 

[Revhappy2]

I don't agree with him, but he's implying the stock is gonna drop due to the Joe Rogan podcast.

No, I am only implying that yesterdays action looked like a breakout to the upside, in the morning. So people would have got in. Then, the way the stock price end the day flat and looking at today's premarket action, will scare a few weak longs who thought they bought at the lowest price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You know what I find funny? Tesla sold and delivered about $1.25 BILLION worth of Model 3s in August, and some weak longs are wetting their beds over a midnight toke. FAAKIN' PHUNNY!

Grow up, and stop drinking the Kool-Aid before bedtime. Elon is an adult, speaking to an adult audience, while partaking of a few well-deserved, LEGAL imbibements. He doesn't care a whit about day traders. Sell the stock if you can't understand Tesla's mission.

Do you know how George S. Patton Jr. celebrated the defeat of the Third Reich? He PISSED in the Rhine. How do you think that would play on CNN or FAUX News today? Elon is fighting a far more important fight, and facing a far more dangerous assembly of enemies.



That's the fight. Lead, follow, or GTFO. Cheers to the Longs!

#TEAMELON

 

[dondy]

When will the charade of public image and all the hypocrisy that it fuels finally end?
When people finally stop having a public image and doing the charade.

Be what you are, always and everywhere.

Just look at all smart destroyed people who had tried to "fit" and "behave" and think where we would be if they ignored the buzz.

 

[aubreymcfato]

It's legal (he asked), didn't even inhale, and it lasted 3 seconds. Move on.
I'm much more worried how tired and sad he was. MKBHD's interview was much more enthusiastic:
I bet Elon liked him more, Marques understands tech, while Joe Rogen is certainly smart but has this arrogant/outgoing/bro attitude that's sort of anti-Musk.
Elon didn't seem at ease all the time.

All in all I liked it: raw, sincere Elon is best Elon.

 

[KarenRei]

2+ hours of total genius...2 minutes of stupidity. What are the bears and shorts and their already biased media going to slam until the cows come home and the stock drops another 10% or more? Yeah, you and I both know. Total shame. Have to admit, I'm disappointed too.

Dan

Let's recall the actual sequence of events.

• The whole sequence started out with Musk asking, "Is that a joint?" Just like your average hardcore pothead who doesn't know what a joint looks like.
• After a reminder that it's legal in California, Musk hesitantly takes it, examines it, then takes a tiny puff, then shakes his head no.
• Comments start filling up the Youtube thread from actual pot smokers complaining:

• OZGUN ST-PIERRE
• Dudeeee wtf he didn’t inhale
  
  
  tg300050
  he didnt inhale
  
  
  Samuel Gobrecht
  +OZGUN ST-PIERRE some people just dont like how it makes them feel
  
  
  Макс Ветер
  Obviously he doesn't know how to smoke
  
  
  NO T H O T S
  NOOOO ****ING WAY
  
  
  Geo Hurtado
  Inhale!!!!
  
  
• Topic changes back to cars.
• Later, topic changes back to pot. The conversation is, to quote:
  • Joe: Is that bad for you? It's legal. It's government approved.
  • Musk: I'm not a regular smoker of weed.
  • Joe: How often do you smoke it?
  • Musk: Almost never.
  • Joe: Mm.
  • Musk: I mean, I don't actually notice any effect.
  • (topic detours to Buddhist monks taking acid, before getting back on the topic of weed)
  • Musk: You know... I know a lot of people like weed... and that's fine. But I don't find that it's very good for productivity.
  • Joe: For you.
  • Musk: Not for me.
  • Joe: Yeah, I would imagine that for someone like you it's not. For someone like you, it'd be more like a cup of coffee.
  • Musk: Actually it's more like the opposite of a cup of coffee. Like a cup of coffee in reverse.
  • Joe: Weed is?
  • Musk: Yeah
  • Joe: No, I was saying you would like more, more what would be beneficial to you would be like coffee.
  • Musk: I like to get things done, I like to be useful. That's one of the hardest things to do.

OMG, pillory him!

 

[dondy]

I don't think Tesla has control over them, but it also probably doesn't matter much in practice for two reasons:

Firstly, the totality of resale value guarantees only represent about $139m in value for the next year:

"Subsequent to June 30, 2016, this program is available only in certain international markets. Resale value guarantees available for exercise within the 12 months following June 30, 2018 totaled $139.3 million in value."
​

... and that would be direct sales and third party leases.

Secondly, the vast majority of resale value guarantees expire without being exercised:

"Through 2017, we only had an insignificant number of customers who exercised their resale value guarantees and returned their vehicles to us. Based on current market demand for our vehicles, we estimate the resale prices for our vehicles will continue to be above our resale value guarantee amounts."​

I.e. the current approx $674m of resale value guarantee liabilities on the balance sheet are listed at 100% per GAAP, but in reality represent an effective liability of less than 5% of that.

I.e. Tesla is applying inventory reduction measures that BMW and Volkswagen is performing too at the end of their quarters, which carmakers do in part to recognize more revenue, but also to gain a margin-leveraged cash flow advantage from reducing inventory at the end of the quarter.

Here's a graph showing how BMW does end of quarter inventory management, the fluctuation is significant, BMW sales volume goes up by about 30% before quarter end, most likely due to inventory push measures by dealers.

Tesla has much higher gross margins than other carmakers so the cash flow advantage from managing inventory at the end of quarters is even bigger. Them doing this could have a potential upside for Q3 cash flow.

Very interesting points, I thought they were going to expand CPO market. Tesla is doing very good there and reaches clients they wouldn't otherwise.

 

[davecolene0606]

Okay, I’m pissed. A CEO does not smoke weed during a live interview! What one does in private is their own business, so long as it doesn’t hurt others. In public, that’s another story.

I’ve never thought it before, but it’s time for someone else to take over (JB) and let Elon solve problems behind the scenes. Pedo guy, boring boneheaded questions, now this. Just too much noise, too much drama. I’m sick of it.

Your kidding right? Did you watch the whole thing or are you reacting to press?

 

[Truthsetter]

Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed, tired and depressed / doesnt have any more good answers, laughs seldom, he just sits there and answers long questions from Joe without enthusiasm, quite depressing to see. Watch yourself then you know what I mean.

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.) I guess there is something bothering him really hard currently. He does not seem relaxed and comfortable, something is going on behind scenes. Even tough Joe has never actually attacked him with heavy topics like the thai diver, the private buyout or the SEC investigation or the lawsuits - still - he does not feel comfortable and cannot laugh about Joe's jokes. There is something going on in his private life or at Tesla.

For me, the interview was an absolute negative and Elon should have not made this interview in this mood. It just showed a "broken Elon Musk" and this is not what shareholders want to see. He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal for many investors.

I expect a selling off until we get better news to 250 - 260$. I do not see that Elon's current mental status is just temporarly - it seems to be more deep - but I wish he could just come back to his previous energy and forget all the misery he was put through (and also made himself through).

Scenarios that might happen in the coming weeks/months:

a) Elon officialy stepping back from TESLA, giving up CEO position (pressure from the Board) but stays within TESLA as Chairman of the Board and visioner

b) SEC investigation settling down or hardening up - depending on the conversation with Musk. I guess the investigation will settle down.

c) Ongoing lawsuits: There will be more pressure from investors and also long institutional investors that will not tolerate his behaviour forever and will ask for answers over his mental status.

 

[KarenRei]

Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed, tired and depressed / doesnt have any more good answers, laughs seldom, he just sits there and answers long questions from Joe without enthusiasm, quite depressing to see. Watch yourself then you know what I mean.

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.) I guess there is something bothering him really hard currently. He does not seem relaxed and comfortable, something is going on behind scenes. Even tough Joe has never actually attacked him with heavy topics like the thai diver, the private buyout or the SEC investigation or the lawsuits - still - he does not feel comfortable and cannot laugh about Joe's jokes. There is something going on in his private life or at Tesla.

For me, the interview was an absolute negative and Elon should have not made this interview in this mood. It just showed a "broken Elon Musk" and this is not what shareholders want to see. He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal.I

If you want to see "unenthusiastic Elon", watch the Model 3 launch event a year ago. He seemed far more enthusiastic in this interview than at that event. And he prepped extensively for that.

The commonality with today? A recent breakup.

News flash to anyone reading this: Elon, like all of us, is a human being.

 

[Todd Burch]

Boss Short:
Just finished watching the show. Was not what I was expecting.

Biggest item that hit me was Elon taking a short puff on a marijuana cigarette. I think the brand was Brunt or Bunt.

Anyway I think this deserves two totally different attacks. One for the law and order market and one for the pot head market.

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

For Fox Buisness
Jeff Sessions may order Elon's arrest on Federal marijuana charges. Five year minimum.

For CNN
Elon not into grass. Rejects liberal beliefs.

Sincerely
Your partner in crime.
Editor Shortsville Times

I thought you were going to go with

“Not Zero-Emissions After All”.

 

[Chocochip]

Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed, tired and depressed / doesnt have any more good answers, laughs seldom, he just sits there and answers long questions from Joe without enthusiasm, quite depressing to see. Watch yourself then you know what I mean.

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.) I guess there is something bothering him really hard currently. He does not seem relaxed and comfortable, something is going on behind scenes. Even tough Joe has never actually attacked him with heavy topics like the thai diver, the private buyout or the SEC investigation or the lawsuits - still - he does not feel comfortable and cannot laugh about Joe's jokes. There is something going on in his private life or at Tesla.

For me, the interview was an absolute negative and Elon should have not made this interview in this mood. It just showed a "broken Elon Musk" and this is not what shareholders want to see. He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal for many investors.

I expect a selling off until we get better news to 250 - 260$. I do not see that Elon's current mental status is just temporarly - it seems to be more deep - but I wish he could just come back to his previous energy and forget all the misery he was put through (and also made himself through).

Scenarios that might happen in the coming weeks/months:

a) Elon officialy stepping back from TESLA, giving up CEO position (pressure from the Board) but stays within TESLA as Chairman of the Board and visioner

b) SEC investigation settling down or hardening up - depending on the conversation with Musk. I guess the investigation will settle down.

c) Ongoing lawsuits: There will be more pressure from investors and also long institutional investors that will not tolerate his behaviour forever and will ask for answers over his mental status.

I partly agree with some of these comments. However, any particular reason why you would post the exact same thing again and again in both this thread and the JRE interview thread?

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Elon Musk on The Joe Rogan Experience

Makes one question your motives...

 

[gora321]

Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed, tired and depressed / doesnt have any more good answers, laughs seldom, he just sits there and answers long questions from Joe without enthusiasm, quite depressing to see. Watch yourself then you know what I mean.

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.) I guess there is something bothering him really hard currently. He does not seem relaxed and comfortable, something is going on behind scenes. Even tough Joe has never actually attacked him with heavy topics like the thai diver, the private buyout or the SEC investigation or the lawsuits - still - he does not feel comfortable and cannot laugh about Joe's jokes. There is something going on in his private life or at Tesla.

For me, the interview was an absolute negative and Elon should have not made this interview in this mood. It just showed a "broken Elon Musk" and this is not what shareholders want to see. He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal for many investors.

I expect a selling off until we get better news to 250 - 260$. I do not see that Elon's current mental status is just temporarly - it seems to be more deep - but I wish he could just come back to his previous energy and forget all the misery he was put through (and also made himself through).

Scenarios that might happen in the coming weeks/months:

a) Elon officialy stepping back from TESLA, giving up CEO position (pressure from the Board) but stays within TESLA as Chairman of the Board and visioner

b) SEC investigation settling down or hardening up - depending on the conversation with Musk. I guess the investigation will settle down.

c) Ongoing lawsuits: There will be more pressure from investors and also long institutional investors that will not tolerate his behaviour forever and will ask for answers over his mental status.

Have you noticed that he sold P100D?