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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I just wrote last night when we plan to switch from puts to calls in early 2019.

As far as SA articles I have only two more planned for the rest of 2018. One analyzing the Q3 production and delivery numbers next month, and the other will be an analysis of the Q3 10Q in November. As I stated last night I do not like SA's new paywall system that blocks 99% of a reader's ability to review past articles without buying a subscription. I wrote nothing for them in August and have no plans to do so in September. Whether I will write for them at all in 2019 is unknown at this point.

Musk does need to worry about what his "long" investors think. If given another chance today, how do you think the vote to split the CEO/Chairman roles would go?
What vote....my gawd you like hypothetical's....especially when they are on a negative slant to EM.
Did he steal your tricycle or something?
 
This is probably another old Baby Boomer institution that's on it's way out: The polished, fake/plastic, poll-tested Executive/Politician... Its not compatible with the everyone-has-a-camera-on-their-cellphone reality, because it comes off more and more as fake every year.... because it is fake.

There are many CEOs who enjoy wine or scotch on their free time.

I have a pretty simple metric: did it help the SP, or hurt the SP?
Robin
 
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are you volunteering @AudubonB

I would happily volunteer. Being a new member I dont have enough post history for the admins to consider me seriously though. The only thing I could do is provide previous experience. That being said, being a new member has a pro as I would not have a bias for long term members over new members. Being human is difficult to NOT be biased, but it would be an attempt.
 
If you honestly think that article is FUD (given The Verge is a tech site with a huge amount of credibility) then you're neck-deep in fanboy land. There is not one line in that article that is factually inaccurate.

People dismissing material developments and news which is negative, are just as bad (if not worse) than those who are focusing entirely on the negative news.

Agreed.

However, the article is also illustrative of an emerging threat I see in that Tesla still lacks the levers to control the public narrative. I fear, as an engineer, Elon believes the the numbers will speak for themselves--the company will hit profitability and the M3 ramp will continue and Tesla will emerge from the dog. house. I think he might be in for a rude awakening.

As MB, VAG, etc start to have skin in the game with real EV offers, they are going to start firing up their massive marketing and PR machines. Watching the Eagles (Go Eagles) vs Falcons game last night, I think I saw an MB commercial at every break plus the VW EV commercial. Now, imagine if that exposure was used to push the MQC? Remember, to blunt Tesla's mainstream expansion, all the incumbents need to do is convince enough buyers that their EVs are good enough and that they are a safer more trustworthy brand than Tesla.

Here is the Consumer Reports brand ranking form last year:
upload_2018-9-7_9-9-33.png

While all the twitter antics, pot-smoking, etc do not bother me and I think have zero relevance to how well Tesla is being run (still long on TSLA), I do thing the brand starts to suffer from the accumulation of paper-cuts and Tesla lacks the tools to turn the conversation around.
 
Musk seemed somewhat mentally broken...smoking weed live on TV, even not inhaled, showed very very poor judgement. this is no longer the Elon Musk I used to know over the years, something is wrong with his decision making process lately. I think he is mentally sick (serious depression perhaps). I hope this is temporary and he will get better, for the sake of all humanity.

This to me is far from over. The company is definitely doing fine, but the CEO is not. I do hope this forces TSLA board to rethink hiring a COO to help. I also hope his good friends get him some professional help. Until then, I am out of the stock because I cannot tell how much $TSLA value is built into Musk vs Tesla. Good luck folks.

-a (prior) long term bull.
 
What vote....my gawd you like hypothetical's....especially when they are on a negative slant to EM.
Did he steal your tricycle or something?
So are you saying you do not think a new CEO or COO to run the show while Musk focuses on the product lines would be a good thing? He has a great one at SpaceX. One man can only do so much. Even Elon is a carbon-based human.;)
 
I just wrote last night when we plan to switch from puts to calls in early 2019.

As far as SA articles I have only two more planned for the rest of 2018. One analyzing the Q3 production and delivery numbers next month, and the other will be an analysis of the Q3 10Q in November. As I stated last night I do not like SA's new paywall system that blocks 99% of a reader's ability to review past articles without buying a subscription. I wrote nothing for them in August and have no plans to do so in September. Whether I will write for them at all in 2019 is unknown at this point.

Musk does need to worry about what his "long" investors think. If given another chance today, how do you think the vote to split the CEO/Chairman roles would go?
I’m seeing more Model 3s every single day here in LA. It is astonishing on the ground in reality.

The sales growth numbers are mind boggling compared to the rest of the industry.

These numbers are real. They will not go away.

1.2 million views in 7 hours of Rogan podcast. He’s a hit with the prime demographic for long term sales. Big sales.

Recruitment of young talent is probably insane right now.

What is happening right now with he stock will pass. The revenue growth numbers will shine for long time past this 2018 ramp.
 
Musk seemed somewhat mentally broken...smoking weed live on TV, even not inhaled, showed very very poor judgement. this is no longer the Elon Musk I used to know over the years, something is wrong with his decision making process lately. I think he is mentally sick (serious depression perhaps). I hope this is temporary and he will get better, for the sake of all humanity.

This to me is far from over. The company is definitely doing fine, but the CEO is not. I do hope this forces TSLA board to rethink hiring a COO to help. I also hope his good friends get him some professional help. Until then, I am out of the stock because I cannot tell how much $TSLA value is built into Musk vs Tesla. Good luck folks.

-a (prior) long term bull.

HAHAHA ... That's what sealed the deal? He didn't frick'in inhale? WTF is wrong with Elon Musk? Why doesn't he know how to smoke weed properly?!
 
Musk seemed somewhat mentally broken...smoking weed live on TV, even not inhaled, showed very very poor judgement. this is no longer the Elon Musk I used to know over the years, something is wrong with his decision making process lately. I think he is mentally sick (serious depression perhaps). I hope this is temporary and he will get better, for the sake of all humanity.

This to me is far from over. The company is definitely doing fine, but the CEO is not. I do hope this forces TSLA board to rethink hiring a COO to help. I also hope his good friends get him some professional help. Until then, I am out of the stock because I cannot tell how much $TSLA value is built into Musk vs Tesla. Good luck folks.

-a (prior) long term bull.
Agree with you. I feel sorry for you.. I've lost also 10000$ because of this clown. My only hope is that stock will go again in the 360s so I can sell it all off to another bagholder. Until then... I am risking my life savings for this jerk.
 
Musk seemed somewhat mentally broken...smoking weed live on TV, even not inhaled, showed very very poor judgement. this is no longer the Elon Musk I used to know over the years, something is wrong with his decision making process lately. I think he is mentally sick (serious depression perhaps). I hope this is temporary and he will get better, for the sake of all humanity.

This to me is far from over. The company is definitely doing fine, but the CEO is not. I do hope this forces TSLA board to rethink hiring a COO to help. I also hope his good friends get him some professional help. Until then, I am out of the stock because I cannot tell how much $TSLA value is built into Musk vs Tesla. Good luck folks.

-a (prior) long term bull.
Good bye.
 
Agree with you. I feel sorry for you.. I've lost also 10000$ because of this clown. My only hope is that stock will go again in the 360s so I can sell it all off to another bagholder. Until then... I am risking my life savings for this jerk.
Isn't it better to sell the stock, buy ITM call options ? The stock would need to go up much less for you to get your money back.
 
Just contributed my $55k to Tesla's Q3 revenue. The white AWD model 3 is an amazing car! The delivery center was packed with Model 3s, and new hires were being trained to prepare to deliver even more cars. The woman who showed me my car had just started and I believe we were the first or second delivery she ever did. She did a great job and everyone there (employees and customers) was full of enthusiasm.

Tesla is doing just fine. The stock will recover.
 
Agreed.

However, the article is also illustrative of an emerging threat I see in that Tesla still lacks the levers to control the public narrative. I fear, as an engineer, Elon believes the the numbers will speak for themselves--the company will hit profitability and the M3 ramp will continue and Tesla will emerge from the dog. house. I think he might be in for a rude awakening.

As MB, VAG, etc start to have skin in the game with real EV offers, they are going to start firing up their massive marketing and PR machines. Watching the Eagles (Go Eagles) vs Falcons game last night, I think I saw an MB commercial at every break plus the VW EV commercial. Now, imagine if that exposure was used to push the MQC? Remember, to blunt Tesla's mainstream expansion, all the incumbents need to do is convince enough buyers that their EVs are good enough and that they are a safer more trustworthy brand than Tesla.

Here is the Consumer Reports brand ranking form last year:
View attachment 332753
While all the twitter antics, pot-smoking, etc do not bother me and I think have zero relevance to how well Tesla is being run (still long on TSLA), I do thing the brand starts to suffer from the accumulation of paper-cuts and Tesla lacks the tools to turn the conversation around.

The problem is, it wasn't "dismissing material developments because they are negative" -- it is all the spin, oversights, misleading statements, etc. Since I, and others, have covered this already I don't see any point in repeating it. The reason I am responding is your contention that MB, VAG, etc. have skin in the game with real EV offers.

I mean, in a technical way they are (or eventually will be) real -- but they aren't real in that they are too little and years behind. In fact the MB EQC is the poster child for what is wrong with thinking that it is just a matter of the established automotive companies deciding that its time to start competing.

A claim oft repeated is that they have vast experience in tooling, production, whatever. All very true, but then this is extended to "prove" that doing an EV is no different than an ICE. After all, its still a frame, suspension, wheels, seats, etc., right? The only difference is replacing the gas tank with a battery and the ICE with an electric, right?

And that thinking is what brought us the EQC. It is a completely risk averse design that uses as much as possible in common with other vehicles so it *will* be taking advantage of MB vast experience in tooling, production, etc. There's just one problem, and that is that this approach produces an inferior EV. It lacks range, it lacks acceleration, it lacks top end, it lacks storage (due to inefficiencies brought on by trying to wedge an EV into an ICE). And that is just considering the vehicle. A large part of Tesla's success comes from the supercharger network. What is MB doing for that?

Unlike GM's attempt it will probably turn a profit, but unless they seriously revamp the design (which will drive up production costs considerably) it isn't likely to sell well. I don't know what their sales target is so, by their definitions/expectations it may perform quite well. But it is laughable to think they will break into the top 10 of EVs, much less challenge Tesla.

So, no, don't mistake the EQC as MB having "skin in the game" as it is anything but. They are barely dipping their toes, not committing anything: not a new design/production line, not backing up their car with a charge network, nothing. No skin at all.
 
If shareholders want a visionary entrepreneur, I think they'll just have to accept that some behaviour just won't appeal to people who are uptight.

"Steve Jobs made no secret of the fact he experimented with LSD while in college. The late Apple cofounder said taking the psychedelic drug was a profound experience, and "one of the two or three most important things I have done in my life." But we've now got a new window into the legendary tech visionary's drug use."
Here's What It Was Like To Take LSD With Steve Jobs
 
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