TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[beachbum77]

It's not Mercedes or you who decide which cars compete with each other but consumers of EVs, and according to key EV specs of the new EV-Mercedes it is barely in the class of the Model 3 today - let alone that of the S/X expected in 2020.

That's the reason why Toni Saccanaghi compared the Mercedes EV to the Model 3.

Mercedes will have to up their game if they want to compete, wishful thinking alone won't work.

Fact, are you saying someone shopping for an SUV will pick a sports sedan instead because it is a BEV? I think you are wrong. I took a relative to test drive the Model 3. While she thought it was cool and fun and "fast as hell", it was $25,000 above her budget, did not have a rear hatch, no sunroof, and did not sit high enough to suit her. She also did not like the rear seat room. Clearly, she had her mind set on an SUV. Had she been able to test drive a Model Y things might have gone very differently since she can afford just about anything on 4 wheels.

She walked out with a completely loaded CX-5 Grand Touring for $0 down (even the first payment was made for her) and $391/month (tax included) on a 36-month .00000001 (that is virtually 0%) money factor Chase lease. The vehicle has features not even available on the Model 3. So she got everything she wanted without putting $5,000 down and a payment half what the Model 3 payment would have been for 72 months on a purchase. SHE is the typical mass market buyer/lessee on a self-imposed budget. Oh, and she came out of a Mercedes C-Class lease. lol. This is what Tesla has to contend with. Look around you on the road or freeway. SUV's are taking over. Tesla needs the Model Y "yesterday". (At least here in the U.S. I can't speak for Europe or Canada)

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The Model 3 should of been a SUV

I don't think so. Gas prices are going up again and we are looking at a recession in the next 1-2 years, just when Ford has discontinued all sedans in the US market except the Mustang. Which isn't even a sedan but you know what I mean. Everyone who depends on SUV sales is scheduled to get absolutely destroyed in the next couple of years, meanwhile Tesla is going have a $35k electric sedan ready exactly for the recession.

 

[KarenRei]

Fact, are you saying someone shopping for an SUV will pick a sports sedan instead because it is a BEV?

No, he's pointing out that until battery prices drop, the price differential for a SUV due to its higher energy consumption (and thus larger battery needs) push it into a price bracket which fewer people can afford. So it makes more sense to meet the needs of sedan customers first (who are still numerous, and- for the time being - far more than Tesla can serve), and move from there to SUVs to expand the customer base. With the elapsed time allowing for a battery price decline and other refinements.

 

[Open Interest]

My latest theory was also that they just hit a very high burst production record, and that they expect to be able to maintain a very high rate for the remainder of September. Musk is looking forward based upon this knowledge. I wouldn’t look to heavily into the low production numbers during Labor Day week.

Huge number of in transit cars from last quarter will help Q3 significantly in terms of deliveries. They are also doing huge delivery events in California right now from what I gather. They are pulling out all the stops for Q3. Hopefully Q4 is more stabilized with production + deliveries so they won’t have to scramble as much like they are now.

This approach makes the most sense to me as well, as they always increase production toward quarter end. I think of production as a moving average, improving over time.

 

[wipster]

Here's another triggered by another example in my wife who is one of the most serious students I've seen up close in over fifty years of college.

People, especially some older white men, have reason to fear immigrants. Newcomers are willing to and must work harder. We tend to forget that immigrants are like adopted children. Wise parents know better than their siblings the adoptee was chosen. Although I was lucky in my parents I did not choose them nor they me among the available options.

Further, just as we worry about in-breeding among cheetahs, it would seem anti-miscegenation practices have weakened the human genetic pool in many ways. And now their vote counts.

Are you saying that the children of people of different races tend not to be as strong and/or intelligent as children from couples of the same race? Show me the proof Prof.

 

[beachbum77]

An email is sent within the company to employees and is for their eyes only. It’s suppose to be private. It isn’t scripted and carefully (lawyerly) worded or vetted like a public letter/statement (should be, especially hindsight) to investors.

As I mentioned before, the most probable reason it got posted on Tesla website was because some NDA breaker was going to leak it anyway, so Tesla figured they’d just beat them to the punch and save themselves having to make an official statement sixty seconds later.

Specifically to your point, obviously Tesla wanted the distinction known because they put in italics right at the top of the page that the following was an email sent to employees.

LOL... At the peak, I think I had maybe 400+ employees. When I would send out company-wide emails, I would get messages back from my sister, friends, and even my mother on occasion, about my announcements. THEY WERE NOT EVEN ON THE LIST! So with 30,000+ employees there is NOTHING private at Tesla in company-wide emails. That's just a given.

 

[beachbum77]

Boy you sure get alot of disagrees for no reason! It's common knowledge now he didn't have the ducks in a row. Thank goodness that fake go private fiasco is over.

LOL... I could type "the sky is blue" and get a disagree. Just watch...

EDIT: I rest my case. lol

 

[Unpilot]

LOL... I could type "the sky is blue" and get a disagree. Just watch...

Couldn't help myself

 

[wjhepworth]

Yeah, and the Y will be based on the 3, so the comparison to the Model 3 is fair.



Yeah, Mercedes Benz will first have to demonstrate that they are able to build a competitive EV at competitive prices that consumers are willing to buy, and at volume.

Mercedes EVs have half the range, fraction of the charging speed and twice the price I am not sure the demand will be there.

Yes, I cannot wait to see BMW's lined up at the dealership for the 1 or 2 fast chargers. Not sure how they are missing this boat when Tesla has clearly articulated the path forward. I know there are many different charging providers but they don't inter-operate and are a pain to deal with. As long as everyone cedes this advantage to Tesla they are no threat at all.

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 333148

Let's be careful with information. The attached listing is cherry picked, NOT all vehicle classes, but only cars. Trucks (and many SUVs are classified as trucks, I know my Honda Pilot is) are not included in the list. F-series pickup is still the number one selling vehicle in the the USA. All this means is Tesla still has a long way to go, but I have no doubt it will happen. I'd like to see a list including all vehicle classes.

Edit: 81,839 F-series trucks sold in August '18, an increase over '17 and almost 4X that of M3. Ford F-series US car sales figures. Don't have their sales $ however know F-series is Ford's bread and butter. IMHO Tesla pickup truck will dominate their market, just like they now dominate luxury auto sales. It is just a matter of time.

 

[Fact Checking]

someone shopping for an SUV will pick a sports sedan instead because it is a BEV?

In 2020 consumers will look at the Model Y, at Mercedes's offering and at other offerings and they'll pick whichever they like best.

(One seems is certain, in 2 years many consumers will probably not be making big investments into a dying technology with an uncertain future: ICE cars and SUVs. This will put increasing pressure on demand of makers of premium ICE vehicles - at a time when they need the income the most.)

I took a relative to test drive the Model 3.

You have a track record of spreading anti-Tesla disinformation on this forum and on Seeking Alpha, so I have no idea whether that anecdote of yours is true or not.

But it's also immaterial, you are trying to change the subject: the question is the EV competitive picture in 2020, the year Mercedes plans to start selling their new EVs.

Mercedes's announced EV specs compare poorly even today, so I reserve judgement whether their offering will be competitive in 2020 and whether they'll be able to manufacture them at scale. With the specs they announced recently they will most likely not be competitive with a 2020 Model X.

 

[Krugerrand]

LOL... At the peak, I think I had maybe 400+ employees. When I would send out company-wide emails, I would get messages back from my sister, friends, and even my mother on occasion, about my announcements. THEY WERE NOT EVEN ON THE LIST! So with 30,000+ employees there is NOTHING private at Tesla in company-wide emails. That's just a given.

Not anymore since the UAW got mad the employees didn’t want a union. But prior to that and way past 400 employees you never heard a peep from any Tesla employee.

 

[beachbum77]

No, he's pointing out that until battery prices drop, the price differential for a SUV due to its higher energy consumption (and thus larger battery needs) push it into a price bracket which fewer people can afford. So it makes more sense to meet the needs of sedan customers first (who are still numerous, and- for the time being - far more than Tesla can serve), and move from there to SUVs to expand the customer base. With the elapsed time allowing for a battery price decline and other refinements.

Karen, your rational and intelligent answers never cease to amaze me. However, you have told me you are waiting for the Model 3 to get a trailer towing package and the needed air suspension before ordering. So will the size of the Model 3 LR battery be sufficient only because you are in Iceland? Dan Edmunds wrote in his road tests about how challenging towing even a small trailer was in a Model X with a 100Kw pack when changes of elevation were involved.

 

[beachbum77]

Not anymore since the UAW got mad the employees didn’t want a union. But prior to that and way past 400 employees you never heard a peep from any Tesla employee.

Where do you think InsideEVs has been getting their numbers over the years?

 

[Krugerrand]

Where do you think InsideEVs has been getting their numbers over the years?

Oh, stop.

 

[dc_h]

There's another aspect to the above that I forgot to mention. Billing for high power feeds for commercial and industrial customers isn't like that for home customers. In addition to the cost of the power, every month you're hit with "demand charges", which are very expensive, and based on the peak power (kW) drawn by the customer during that month.

Let's say for example that your utility's demand charges are $10/kW and you have a supercharger out in Podunk, Idaho which nobody uses. Let's say it has only two chargers and 4 stalls, which is pretty much the minimum size Tesla makes (with apart from rare exceptions). Let's say your daily usage varies from 0 people charging to several people charging - on average one person charging per day on average 60kWh, but once a month you'll probably have both chargers in use during a "busy time", feeding two stalls. So they each feed 117kW, maybe drawing 130kW from the grid each, or 260kW at that moment in time. So that cements your demand fees for the month at $2600. Meanwhile that month you've sold 1800kWh of electricity. Congratulations, your demand fees alone amass to $1,40 per kWh.

There are two ways around this:

1) Powerpacks. The longer the period of time you can spread the load around, the lower the peak you have to draw from the grid. Of course, that means more capital costs.

2) Better utilization. Sell more kWh = divide the demand charges among more kWh = shrink the per-kWh demand cost until it's no longer a problem. 60kWh/day is a less than 1% utilization rate. Jump up to 10% utilization (assuming this raises peak demand to ~320kW) and demand fees are $0,15/kWh. Jump up to 30% utilization and demand fees are $0,05/kWh.

#2 is key to turning existing superchargers from loss leaders to self-sustaining, if not profit centres.

And #3, use power packs to resell on grid during peak demand.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen, your rational and intelligent answers never cease to amaze me. However, you have told me you are waiting for the Model 3 to get a trailer towing package and the needed air suspension before ordering. So will the size of the Model 3 LR battery be sufficient only because you are in Iceland? Dan Edmunds wrote in his road tests about how challenging towing even a small trailer was in a Model X with a 100Kw pack when changes of elevation were involved.

Towing a trailer is most commonly over short distances. Trips that are simultaneously long and with a trailer are rare (at least for me).

Also, it's worth mentioning that EV ranges here are boosted by the fact that our top speed limit is 90kph (56mph)

 

[beachbum77]

Oh, stop.

75 delivery centers scattered across the U.S. And they are not estimating production, they are estimating deliveries. Without inside information, they have absolutely no other way to get the numbers. Most states do not release registration information and those that do take much longer to do so.

So you tell us how they get the numbers.

 

[beachbum77]

Towing a trailer is most commonly over short distances. Trips that are simultaneously long and with a trailer are rare (at least for me).

Also, it's worth mentioning that EV ranges here are boosted by the fact that our top speed limit is 90kph (56mph)

LOL.. 56 mph here in the lower 48, as I am sure you remember, will get you pulled over for becoming a hazard. If I recall 55 was the top speed on Kauai when I lived there so that seems about average on an island.

I am also guessing you will not be running the A/C much either.

Off to dinner party. Have a nice weekend!

 

[RobStark]

Yeah, and the Y will be based on the 3, so the comparison to the Model 3 is fair.

Ender's Game the movie is based on a novel of the same name.

So is Dune the movie.